Suspension of grain corridor: National Bank of Ukraine calculates lost revenue
Due to the suspension of the grain corridor, Ukraine will lose US$2 billion in revenue in 2023.
Source: Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Director of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), on Ekonomichna Pravda’s podcast Chronicles of Economics
He said that the NBU revised the grain corridor calculations – the new macroeconomic forecast did not include its resumption. At the same time, along with reducing security risks, the regulator plans to unblock all Ukrainian ports starting in the second half of 2024.
As for the impact of the termination of the grain initiative, it was included in the GPD baseline scenario.
"However, since Ukraine’s economy is very adaptive, we already have alternative supply routes," Lepushynskyi added.
The top manager of the National Bank noted that the suspension of the grain corridor will affect:
The rate of grain exports - what is not exported this year will be exported next year;
Сurrency proceeds – according to the National Bank's estimates, this year, it will be less by US$2 billion.
Lepushynskyi noted that Ukraine will catch up on its losses next year.
As a positive risk for the forecast, the NBU is considering the possibility of resuming the movement of ships through the grain corridor, which will improve export prospects.
"But if this does not happen, nothing special will happen for the foreign exchange market. The National Bank has record international reserves and will be present in the foreign exchange market to balance the situation," Lepushynskyi summed up.
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