Sweden, Finland Sign Defense Treaty with the U.K. ahead of Joining NATO
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Sweden and Finland are one step closer to joining NATO after signing a mutual defense treaty with the United Kingdom on Wednesday.
The treaties were announced by British prime minister Boris Johnson during his visit to Stockholm and meeting with Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson. Formally termed “A Political Declaration of Solidarity,” the treaty pledges that the United Kingdom – a nuclear-armed state and NATO founding member – will intervene to defend Sweden if it “suffers disaster or an attack,” said Andersson.
Johnson signed the treaty with Andersson during his visit and is expected to sign an identical instrument in Helsinki later today, during his bilateral meetings with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and PM Sanna Martin.
The agreements come as Finland and Sweden telegraph an impending decision to join the NATO, which currently has thirty members across Europe and North America. Though a public debate on membership has been ongoing in both countries for years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has jolted public opinion in support of NATO. A recent poll by Sweden’s Aftonbladet newspaper showed that 57 percent of Swedes supported joining the military alliance, a jump from 37 percent in January of this year. In Finland, the figures were even more lopsided: soaring to 76 percent in support of membership from 28 percent in January.
Most observers in Europe agree that, barring any surprises, both countries – which are democracies and members of the European Union – will apply and be summarily accepted into the alliance. In comments to the BBC, Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said that his country will join NATO with “99.9 percent certainty.”
However, he noted that both Finland and Sweden could be targets of cyber-attacks and Russian disinformation during the application process. Per the Washington Treaty, a new member-state’s accession must be unanimously ratified by all 30 NATO members, a process that can take at least 20 months. NATO will hold a major leaders’ summit in Madrid in June, and Finland’s foreign minister, Pekka Havisto, told CNBC that a formal application will follow a decision by “a few days.”
History casts its shadow on both deals, as both countries express concerns about a Russian invasion of their territory akin to Ukraine. Finland shares a long Arctic border with Russia and was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939 during the Second World War, which ended after Finland agreed to remain neutral between the Soviets and the West.
Adjacent to Finland, Sweden has a long coastline along the Baltic Sea, where Russian naval activity has been a source of concern. Both countries, despite being non-NATO members, are part of the alliance’s “Partnership for Peace” and have previously trained with NATO forces. They are also members of a British-led rapid reaction force, which is independent of NATO and designed to be more flexible in responding to a Russian attack.
Britain, meanwhile, has long experience with mutual security deals in Europe, having signed many throughout the 20th Century which drew it into conflicts during the two World Wars. Russia has previously warned of “political and military consequences” if either country were to join the alliance.
Regardless of their decision, however, any attack on Finland and Sweden would likely draw NATO into the conflict via Britain’s participation per the latest treaties. A responsive attack on Britain, or any NATO member-state, could trigger Article V of the Washington Treaty, which states that “an armed attack against one [member]…shall be considered an attack against them all.”
