Great Lakes under rare moderate risk for severe weather Wednesday

After record highs were set in parts of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast on Tuesday, the heat will begin to be trimmed from west to east into Wednesday night by way of heavy, gusty and even violent thunderstorms in some locations.

As a cold front slices into the warm and humid air, strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected to erupt on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cities such as Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit, Lansing and Saginaw, Michigan; Pittsburgh and Erie, Pennsylvania; Columbus, Cleveland and Toledo, Ohio; Toronto and London, Ontario; and Buffalo and Rochester, New York, will be among the locations at risk.

Even though thunderstorms could occur at anytime, the most likely time for the strongest storms will be through the mid-evening hours. Damaging wind gusts present the largest threat with the storms with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph anticipated.

Small hail may also occur. In addition, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in portions of Michigan, Ohio and southwestern Ontario as storms initially develop.

"There are some similarities to the July 2, 1997, outbreak which spawned tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds in the same region," according to AccuWeather Reporter Blake Naftel. "The setup is not quite as dynamic as that of 1997, but it is potent enough to support intense thunderstorms."

Residents in those regions will need to keep an eye to the sky and stay weather aware. People should ensure that they have a way to receive watches and warnings for their area.

Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky as powerful storms rumble over the region. Additional watches may be issued into Wednesday night as the storms advance eastward.

Wind gusts over 70 mph have already been reported in several spots with a gust of 80 mph being clocked in Converse, Indiana. Hail as large as golf balls have also been reported from some of the most intense storms.

People are urged to move indoors at the first rumble of thunder. If you can hear thunder, you are at risk for being struck by lightning.

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The National Weather Service's (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a rare moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across central and eastern Lower Michigan, including the Detroit metro area, and extending into northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, for Wednesday.

"Moderate risks are more typically issued for the Plains states during the peak of severe weather season in the spring," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff. "To have one issued this far north and east shows the volatility of the atmospheric setup for Wednesday's severe weather."

The last time a moderate risk for severe weather was issued for Detroit was on June 12, 2013, according to AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell.

A tornado warning has not been posted by the NWS Gaylord, Michigan, office, located in the northeastern part of the state, in 651 days. That's the longest stretch without a tornado warning in the contiguous U.S. east of the Rockies, Ferrell said.

The tornado threat should diminish farther east as the storms form into a line, and damaging winds become the main hazard. Any storm could contain torrential downpours, and flooding will even be a possibility in any areas that have multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

By late Wednesday night, the intensity of the thunderstorms should diminish as they shift eastward, but showers and storms with torrential downpours, locally gusty winds and vivid lightning are still anticipated near the Atlantic coast.

"Commuters and travelers from the Hudson Valley of New York state and western New England to New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., could face urban flooding and very low visibility from storms with heavy rain and gusty winds late Wednesday night to Thursday morning," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

One more day of record heat will swelter the eastern Great Lakes and the interior Northeast ahead of a cooling trend.

Buffalo, New York, is forecast to reach 91 degrees Fahrenheit late Wednesday afternoon, which would tie the daily record high set way back in 1895.

Other record-threatening areas include Watertown, New York, which could hit 89 F, breaking the record of 88 F set in 1974, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, which is forecast to hit 95 F. This would easily surpass the record of 93 degrees set in 1984.

Other areas in the eastern lakes and interior Northeast will be close to records, but many areas are likely to fall just short of tying or setting new records. Nevertheless, it will certainly feel more like the middle of summer than the end of spring.

Wednesday is likely to be the last day of record-challenging heat in the Northeast for a while. The culprit will be the cold front moving eastward.

As the cold front moves farther to the east on Thursday, the risk for heavy thunderstorms will shift to the Interstate-95 corridor. Despite a lower risk of severe weather on Thursday afternoon, storms could still deliver heavy rain, which could result in localized flash flooding. Locally strong wind gusts will also be possible with some of the storms.

Quieter weather is in store for much of the Northeast on Friday, but the front is likely to stall along the lower mid-Atlantic and southern Atlantic coasts. That is likely to act as a trigger for thunderstorms with heavy rain in those areas during late in the week.

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