Swine flu could return this winter, warn experts, and ‘vulnerable must have have jabs’

The virus responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic is set to be the dominant strain this winter, health officials have warned in a plea to the public to be jabbed.

Swine flu has had limited circulation in Britain since 2019, with other flu variants spreading since the Covid-19 pandemic and end of social distancing measures.

Last winter, flu was responsible for more deaths than Covid for the first time since coronavirus emerged.

About 14,600 people lost their lives to flu, compared with the 10,300 Covid deaths, according to analysis by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

This year, the swine flu strain, officially known as influenza H1N1, “could return”, experts have warned.

A swine flu pandemic swept across Europe in 2009, infecting hundreds of thousands of people, as well birds and pigs – earning its nickname.

‘Good protection’

It has since joined other variants as a seasonal flu and re-emerged as the dominant strain circulating in Australia during its winter, which often anticipates Britain’s flu season.

Experts from UKHSA have stressed that there is “good evidence to suggest this year’s vaccine will offer good protection” against the expected strains.

Protection from swine flu has been built into the vaccine since the 2009 pandemic. Prof Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at UKHSA, said that “pregnant women, young children and those with chronic health conditions are particularly vulnerable”, as well those who are unvaccinated.

“Last winter the vaccine prevented an estimated 25,000 hospitalisations, but this could be even greater if all those eligible for the flu vaccine came forward this year,” she added.

More than 10,000 of the 50,000 people admitted to hospital in Britain last winter were children.

The latest surveillance report from Australia says health authorities have been informed of more than 235,000 cases of flu, with thousands being admitted to hospital, and 249 people dying so far this year.

The severity of the flu season has been rated as “low” owing to the effectiveness of the vaccine against serious illness, although the country could surpass the record 300,000 infections seen in 2019.

Children under 16 have made up 73 per cent of hospital cases so far, with several known to have died.

New Covid strain

Fears over a new Covid variant, dubbed Pirola, and an early flu season as seen in the southern hemisphere, led to the NHS bringing its vaccination campaign forward by a month.

So far 3.8 million of the 30 million eligible for a free flu vaccination have had the jab, with millions more being invited to book on the NHS app from this morning for the first time.

About 2.4 million have had a Covid jab, while UKHSA has said it was “too soon” to determine the severity of the new variant but that “early evidence suggests that BA.2.86 is no more likely to evade” vaccines than other variants.

The health body has also agreed a deal with CSL Seqirus to produce 100 million vaccines in Liverpool in response to any future influenza pandemic.

‘Burden on hospitals’

Maria Caulfield, the vaccines minister, said: “Flu placed a greater burden on hospitals than Covid last year, so it’s essential that we all take part in reducing pressure on the health system by booking our Covid and flu jabs as soon as possible.”

Steve Russell, NHS director for vaccinations, said there were “a record 5,000 sites” delivering vaccines this winter.

“The NHS is inviting everyone eligible for a flu and Covid vaccine to book online, via the app or by calling 119.

“Not only will these vaccines protect you and your loved ones from getting sick this winter, but they will also help ease pressure on the NHS by reducing hospitalisations.”