From T-shirts to snow boots: Here’s what to know about Colorado’s weather roller coaster

Ignacio Calderon, Fort Collins Coloradoan
Updated ·3 min read
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As the unusually high temperatures this week came to an end Thursday, a winter storm watch will be in effect Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

Snow accumulations across Colorado will vary greatly, and there’s still uncertainty over the precipitation type (snow vs. rain) and storm track, but here’s what we know so far from the National Weather Service:

Spring-like temperatures are above the climate normal at this time of the year

Thursday’s high temperature was forecast to reach 62 degrees Fahrenheit — a whopping 17 degrees warmer than the normal high for Feb. 1 in Fort Collins.

NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information calculates 30-year climate averages to form a baseline of what is considered “normal” for a particular day or month at a specific location. These baselines are updated every decade, with the most recent one calculated for 1991-2020.

For the low temperature Thursday, Denver is observing a Climate Shift Index of 2. This index, which was developed by the nonprofit Climate Central, reveals “how much climate change influences the temperature on a particular day.” Fort Collins is not listed in the index.

An index of 2 is considered “strong” and indicates climate change “made the conditions at least twice as common.”

Snow coming during winter storm watch, with higher accumulations in the mountains

According to the National Weather Service, there’s higher confidence for heavy mountain snow, which could cause hazardous travel conditions and possible chain and traction laws, but lower confidence for snowfall and travel impacts from the foothills eastward.

Mountain regions can likely expect 10 to 20 inches of snow this weekend, but Fort Collins’ expected total is less than one inch.

Uncertainty over storm continues

National Weather Service meteorologist Jennifer Stark said the uncertainty over the rain/snow mix has been a “forecasting dilemma” for lower elevations this week, but for the high country “it will definitely be snow.”

Storm track and potential impacts are still being evaluated through model data, but Stark said the weather service will have an update on the forecast later Thursday afternoon.

Above-normal temperature but below-normal precipitation

Russ Schumacher, state climatologist and professor in Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science, told the Coloradoan earlier this week that Fort Collins has seen 18.5 inches of snow this season compared to a normal of 26.1 inches for the end of January.

The city has received 1.63 inches of precipitation since Oct. 1 compared to the average of 2.85 inches.

Looking ahead, warm temperatures continue next week for Fort Collins

According to the National Weather Service:

  • Friday, Feb. 2: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52 degrees, a low around 34 and 60% chance of precipitation.

  • Saturday, Feb. 3: Rain and snow likely (80% chance) with a high of 42 and a low of 30.

  • Sunday, Feb. 4: Lower chances of precipitation with a high of 42 and low of 22.

  • Monday, Feb. 5: Mostly sunny with a high near 48 and low around 24.

  • Tuesday, Feb. 6: Mostly sunny with a high of 55 and low of 29.

  • Wednesday, Feb. 7: Partly sunny with a high near 55.

Coloraodan reporter Miles Blumhardt contributed to this story.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Fort Collins weekend weather forecast still in flux: What we know