Tampa Bay braces for ‘life-threatening’ storm surge as Idalia nears

Just shy of a year since Hurricane Ian battered Florida’s Gulf Coast, killing at least 150 people and leaving billions of dollars in wreckage, Tampa Bay residents and northern neighbors are bracing for another momentous threat.

As of 11 p.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center warned that Tropical Storm Idalia is likely to become a major hurricane — a Category 3 storm bearing winds of at least 111 mph, as well as “life-threatening storm surge,” experts said.

The storm, which was lingering near Cuba late Monday, is expected to make landfall early Wednesday morning along Florida’s west coast.

A record-hot Gulf of Mexico combined with high tides due to a super moon make the region particularly vulnerable. While high wind speeds pose danger, powerful storm surge could bring walls of water onshore, wiping out coastal property and threatening residents who live in evacuation zones. More people died of drowning during Hurricane Ian than of any other cause.

By Monday night, much of the Gulf Coast had been placed under hurricane and storm surge warnings. Models show Tampa Bay could see a dangerous storm surge of 4 to 7 feet atop high tides. Rapid intensification is expected before landfall, adding a layer of unpredictability to storm preparations. As for rain, officials said Tampa Bay could see 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday, leading to some flash flooding.

As local authorities began issuing evacuation orders and closures amid Idalia’s uncertain path, the Tampa Bay region began its all-too-familiar dance to the soundtrack of the developing storm: the startling chime of emergency alerts, the click of hurricane shutters being fastened onto houses, the hushed whoosh of wind as the system moved closer to shore.

Preparations begin across the bay

At sand stations in Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas on Monday, lines formed as residents filled bags to line garage doors and storefronts. Throughout the day, grocery stores across the region began to see staples diminish.

At a Walmart on 34th Street in Saint Petersburg, a sign taped to the entrance asked customers to limit themselves to one case of water each. At a Costco across the bay, an employee wheeled a final pallet of bottled water out for those eagerly stocking up.

At a Publix in Pinellas, a woman in workout gear waited to pay for puffed rice snacks.

“Am I missing something?” she asked another patron, whose cart was stacked with crates of peanut butter, beans and soup.

At the mention of a hurricane, the woman’s eyes grew wide.

She backed out of line and headed toward the carts.

From Tampa to St. Petersburg to Largo to New Port Richey, residents fell into the rhythm of preparation. Patio umbrellas came down like Christmas trees in January. Potted plants and yard decor were rolled inside sheds. Chainsaws came out for last-minute surgery on weak branches. And along the beach strip in Pinellas County’s first evacuation zone, traffic vanished after residents made themselves scarce.

But just as routine as the preparatory measures some took were the hard conversations with family and friends who scoffed at warnings. Children called parents, urging them to book hotels far from flood zones. Lifelong Floridians who have weathered past storms unscathed got out their party games.

On one of Pinellas County’s beaches, bartender Biscuit Shannon, 51, checked in with her regulars — about a dozen customers ordering beers on draft.

“I could care less about this storm. Doesn’t faze me at all,” said Shannon, who has worked at Shadrack’s Bar in Pass-a-Grille for 25 years. “I never evacuate. I open my doors, blow up the air mattresses, fill the empty vodka bottles with water and have everyone ride it out here.”

Evacuations ordered as officials fear surge

With memories of Hurricane Ian still fresh — the damage, the devastation, the deaths — officials on Monday took an urgent tone, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, who left the presidential campaign trail to return to the Sunshine State.

At the Pinellas County Emergency Operations Center, the governor warned residents to prepare.

“This is going to be a powerful hurricane, and this is absolutely going to impact the state of Florida in many, many ways,” DeSantis said.

The state has activated thousands of Florida National Guard members in response. In addition, certain vulnerable areas of Tampa Bay are under evacuation orders.

In Pasco County, residents in evacuation Zone A, as well as those living in manufactured and mobile homes or RVs, have been told to evacuate.

The same orders applied to residents in Pinellas County. And in Hillsborough, residents in coastal areas or mobile and manufactured homes have been ordered out.

Citrus, Hernando and Manatee counties also encouraged, and in some cases ordered, certain residents to leave.

Shelters are open in each of the counties.

To aid with the process, Pinellas and Hillsborough buses will be free through Tuesday, with additional rides available to emergency shelters. Routes are listed on county and city websites. Rides will end earlier if conditions become unsafe.

Additionally, tolls on roads along Florida’s west coast will be suspended starting at 4 a.m. Tuesday.

Utility companies, including Duke Energy Florida and Tampa Electric Co., are preparing for Idalia’s aftermath. They’re rounding up thousands of employees, including line technicians, tree-trimmers and damage assessors, to respond to outages.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, speaking Monday, called back to memories of last year, urging residents to stay diligent even as forecasts wobbled.

“Our friends down south didn’t have the time to prepare that they needed because of the unpredictability of these storms,” Castor said at a news conference, pointing to the scramble residents of Southwest Florida faced when Ian moved east before landfall. “So we are just asking everyone, please ensure you are ready.”

In St. Petersburg, Mayor Ken Welch took a similar tone in recalling Ian after declaring the city’s first state of emergency of 2023.

“We witnessed the power and the unpredictability of that storm,” Welch said. “So now is the time to heed the warnings to prepare. And if ordered to evacuate, please respond.”

In addition to emergency declarations and evacuation orders, a number of Tampa Bay school districts announced closures beginning Tuesday, including those in Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Hillsborough and Pinellas. Most are scheduled to reopen on Thursday.

Local universities, including the University of South Florida, the University of Tampa and Saint Leo University, canceled classes for Tuesday and Wednesday. And at waterfront Eckerd College, some 600 college freshmen who had arrived on campus less than two weeks earlier were ordered to evacuate dorms.

Inland and upstate, Florida State University and the University of Florida are also shuttering.

At Tampa International Airport, travelers scrambled. A man trying to get to Denver worked diligently to rearrange his itinerary after the airport announced it would ground all commercial flights beginning Tuesday. He was without a car and worried about his ability to get supplies. St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it would also halt flights beginning at 3 p.m. Tuesday, with plans to reopen Wednesday afternoon.

Three Tampa Bay hospitals — HCA Florida Trinity West Hospital, HCA Florida West Tampa Hospital and HCA Florida Pasadena Hospital — have been evacuated and closed to protect patients from flooding and storm surge.

It’s the second year in a row that HCA Pasadena has had to close because of the threat of a storm.

A look back to Ian and lessons learned

Hurricane Ian’s toll still looms large here.

At Paradise Grille on St. Pete Beach, cook Dominic Marone, 21, stared down an empty patio midday Monday, waiting for customers who didn’t come.

“It’s been dead — very dead — all day,” he said. He wasn’t surprised.

He grew up in Florida, but last year’s hurricane was a turning point. “I never realized how much danger we actually were in until I saw what happened to Fort Myers,” he said.

We got lucky, he said.

His family had never evacuated before, but this year, they would be heading to his downtown St. Petersburg apartment — away from the water.

“I’ve got about 10 family members who live on the beach, and they’re all coming to bunk in with me tonight,” he said.

Now, as Tropical Storm Idalia strengthens, officials are asking residents to keep last year’s destruction front of mind.

Evacuation to safe ground doesn’t have to mean fleeing Florida. What’s critical, they said, is getting out of flood zones.

“Anyone who receives an evacuation order needs to make plans to go to a safe area now,” DeSantis said in a statement Monday night. “You do not need to leave the state — travel tens of miles, not hundreds of miles.”

Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said some parts of the state could see 8 to 12 feet of storm surge.

He pointed to videos of buildings being swept away during Hurricane Ian in areas where the surge was 10 to 12 feet.

“It is a classic example of what is going to happen with the storm surge across the state of Florida,” Guthrie said.

Though it was not yet clear which part of the coast would take a direct hit, the surge, he said, could be “catastrophic.”

This story includes reporting from Times staffers including Lane DeGregory, Chris O’Donnell, Bernadette Berdychowski, Emily Mahoney, Olivia George, Michaela Mulligan, Ian Hodgson, Colleen Wright and Zachary T. Sampson.