Tampa Bay has low COVID levels, but the virus is rising in Florida

Tampa Bay counties have a low risk of COVID-19 for now, but cases and hospitalizations are rising statewide.

Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties each have weekly virus rates of fewer than 200 infections and 10 hospital admissions per 100,000 people, according to federal data. That means the region has low levels of COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported last week. The federal agency recommends that everyone, regardless of health status, wear masks in public indoor spaces when virus transmission is high.

However, cases and hospitalizations are climbing across Florida, reflecting an increase in viral spread that threatens to disrupt the holidays in Tampa Bay.

From the beginning of the month to Dec. 7, Florida reported 18,091 cases — a 41% jump compared to the prior week, according to federal data. The state also saw an 18% increase in hospitalizations, with 1,764 admissions in the first week of December.

Locally, Hillsborough recorded 1,082 infections from Dec. 1 to the middle of last week, a spike of 48% compared to the previous seven days. Pinellas and Pasco had increases of 40% and 39%, respectively. Pinellas saw 762 cases; Pasco identified 386. (These are undercounts because many people use at-home virus tests and don’t report their results to health authorities.)

The region’s jump in COVID-19 activity mirrors a national trend, but Florida is faring better than other parts of the U.S. at the moment. Infections are spiking in New York City, Los Angeles, Arizona and areas in the Midwest, while most of the Sunshine State still has low levels of the virus.

Health officials in New York City, Los Angeles, Oregon and Washington urged residents last week to wear masks when inside stores, offices and other public places.

Nationally, the U.S. reported 458,986 cases in the first week of December — a nearly 50% increase from the previous seven days. Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which dodge the body’s immune response, account for almost 70% of recent infections, according to federal estimates.

Some researchers believe prior infection and vaccination will blunt the severity of this winter’s surge. But Jill Roberts, a University of South Florida professor who specializes in molecular epidemiology, said Tampa Bay should prepare for a dangerous few weeks.

“We have every reason to believe that COVID is going to increase,” Roberts said. The U.S. is in “for a rough Christmas season.”

She urged people to wear masks in crowded areas and get one of the updated booster shots from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. The vaccines were authorized in August and target both the original COVID-19 strain and two omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5.

Demand for the boosters has been anemic, including among Florida seniors, which worries scientists.

Since the pandemic began, residents 65 and up have accounted for 15% of cases statewide but over three quarters of deaths. Yet less than 24% of this age group in Florida has gotten an updated booster, which is tied with Georgia for the fourth-lowest rate of any state in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported last week.

“That’s pretty awful,” Roberts said. “It speaks to a lot of misinformation.”

In a tweet earlier this month, state Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo said COVID-19 shots from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna “are far less safe than any vaccines widely used.” (The companies’ shots are safe and highly protective against severe disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)

In Hillsborough, only a quarter of those 65 and up have gotten an updated booster. In Pinellas, it’s nearly 27%. Pasco has a rate of 23%.

Statewide, an average of 144 people 70 and older were hospitalized with COVID-19 every day during the first week of December — an increase of 15% compared to the previous week, according to federal health officials.

The Florida Department of Health didn’t respond to a request for comment this week on whether it’s doing anything to encourage seniors to get boosted.

“We may reach a tipping point,” Roberts said, “where people say, ‘OK, that’s enough. I know enough people that have COVID. I know enough people that are in the hospital. I’m going to put the mask back on. I’m going to take the precautions.’”