Target is advertising a $25 Thanksgiving dinner. Here’s where prices are at this year for the traditional spread
National retailer Target is looking to get a jump on the competition ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday this year with a curated shopping list that covers a basic four-person meal for $25, before taxes.
And basic is the operational term here with Target’s suggested menu including a small turkey, a bag of potatoes and a handful of prepared and boxed items, as follows:
Good & Gather Premium Basted Young Turkey (Frozen) – 10 lb.
Good & Gather Russet Potatoes – 5 lb.
Good & Gather Cut Green Beans – 14.5 oz.
Campbell’s Cream of Mushroom Soup – 22 oz.
Ocean Spray Jellied Cranberry Sauce – 14 oz.
Stove Top Turkey Stuffing Mix – 6 oz.
Heinz HomeStyle Roasted Turkey Gravy – 12 oz.
“We know our guests are looking for incredible value and ease as they get ready to celebrate Thanksgiving with their loved ones,” Rick Gomez, Target’s chief food & beverage officer, said in a press release.
For those looking to assemble their own Thanksgiving menus and shopping lists, a new report from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute warns that even as inflationary pressures on food and grocery items have eased somewhat from the same time last year, shoppers shouldn’t expect to spend a whole lot less than Thanksgiving circa 2022.
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And one of the drivers behind that pricing dynamic, according to Wells Fargo economists, is the failure of grocery retailers to pass along cost reductions on the wholesale side of the equation.
“Despite food-at-home inflation slowing to 2.4% since last October, this year’s celebration will not be less expensive,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in their annual Thanksgiving holiday report. “That’s because there are record price spreads between the wholesale price supermarkets pay versus the retail prices consumers pay – and the difference is impacting some of the most popular holiday dishes, including turkey and ham.”
While retail turkey prices in October were down 9% from the same time last year and averaging $1.47 per pound last month, the wholesale price of turkeys (what supermarkets pay) was down 30% in October over the same month in 2022. While retailers are likely enjoying the extra profits the current price spreads are driving, Wells Fargo economists predict the highly competitive grocery industry will create its own pressure to pass on more of the savings to shoppers.
“With most food manufacturers operating at full speed based on employment growth and automation, there will be intense pressure on retailers to pass along savings to consumers in the bid for consumer shopping dollars,” the report reads.
While the traditional turkey centerpiece may be a little less expensive than last year, optional holiday proteins like ham have gone the other direction when it comes to pricing.
Retail ham prices across the U.S. are near an all-time high with a price of $4.56 per pound in September, up 5.2% from last year, according to the Wells Fargo report. The wholesale versus retail price spread, as in the current state of the turkey industry, is also historically large.
The Wells Fargo analysts found price fluctuations over last year are a mixed bag when it comes to the Thanksgiving table accoutrements with fresh cranberries down 20% from 2022 (but canned cranberry products up 60%), sweet potatoes up 4% from a year ago and good ol’ russet potatoes near an all-time high and costing $1.17 per pound on average in September.
