TCU football season preview: Why the Horned Frogs can win 10 games in 2023

The start of the 2023 season is less than a week away for the TCU Horned Frogs and the program will finally have a chance to prove 2022 wasn’t a fluke.

There’s an expectation that TCU will fall back to Earth, but that sentiment ignores the fact that the Horned Frogs have won 11 or more games four times since joining the Big 12 in 2012.

For consideration, that’s more than USC, Florida, Auburn and the same as Penn State in the same time frame. That tells us that TCU is positioned better to keep this run going than many realize.

Much has been made about the personnel losses TCU sustained, especially on offense, but the Horned Frogs bring back seven starters on defense including preseason Associated Press All-American Josh Newton and All-Big 12 linebacker Johnny Hodges.

The Horned Frogs also signed their highest-ranked recruiting class in program history and landed a Top 25 transfer class to replace some of the pieces on offense. Then at quarterback, you have Chandler Morris getting his shot after beating Max Duggan for the job last season only to lose to injury in the first game of the season.

The new system of offensive coordinator Kendal Briles has fit Morris perfectly and with his and Sonny Dykes’ track record as offensive innovators there’s a good shot TCU is still explosive on that side of the ball. All those reasons plus a favorable schedule is why the Horned Frogs are primed for a better season than expected, once again.

Here’s the game-by-game projection of TCU’s schedule:

Week 1, Saturday Sept. 2 vs. Colorado

Breakdown: One of the most anticipated early season matchups pits the runner-ups from a year ago against Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes. Sanders, known as Coach Prime, has drastically reshaped the Colorado roster after an 1-11 season. Former five stars Travis Hunter and Cormani McClain joined Prime in Boulder along with his sons Shedeur and Shilo Sanders. Shedeur is the team’s quarterback and has drawn plenty of hype after a prolific stint at Jackson State.

The Buffaloes will be better than last year, there’s no where to go but up, however Colorado is still lacking in the offensive and defensive lines and lack depth across the board. TCU and the Texas heat will be enough to wear down Colorado in the primtime game.

Result: TCU wins by three scores.

Week 2 vs. Nicholls State on Sept. 9

Breakdown: Not much to say about this game except young players like Josh Hoover and Cordale Russell should get plenty of playing time.

Result: TCU wins in a blowout.

Week 3 at Houston, Sept. 16

Breakdown: TCU’s first road game of the year will be against a new Big 12 foe. This game could be a bit tricky if the Houston crowd shows up in droves for the Cougars first Big 12 game. Houston isn’t known for that, but it’s a new era in the program. Aside from that, the Cougars are replacing star receiver Tank Dell and longtime quarterback Clayton Tune.

Backup Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith transferred over and won the starting the job. The Cougars have some nice receivers, but are still probably a cycle or two away from really being able to compete.

Result: TCU wins by 10

Week 4 vs. SMU on Sept. 23

Breakdown: The Battle for the Iron Skillet could be more contentious than last season. First the Mustangs poached Jordan Hudson, a former top-100 recruit, in the off-season from TCU along with another player. Then the Horned Frogs announced they would pausing the rivalry after the 2025 season, which went over very well with the SMU fanbase.

The off the field chatter only makes the game more compelling. The Mustangs are turning to Preston Stone to lead the offense and there are plenty of receivers for him to throw too. SMU will put up some points, but the Mustangs haven’t made enough strides on defense to keep TCU out of the endzone.

Result: TCU wins by two possessions in a shootout.

Week 5 vs. West Virginia on Sept. 30

Breakdown: After breaking the losing streak in Morgantown, TCU will host the Mountaineers in what could be a crucial game for that program. With games against Pittsburgh, Penn State and Texas Tech before TCU, West Virginia could enter this one riding high or with the vultures circling Neal Brown.

The latter is far more likely when you consider WVU’s struggles on defense. The Mountaineers could be a pretty good rushing team with dual threat quarterback Garrett Greene and C.J. Donaldson at running back, but it shouldn’t be enough to keep up with TCU.

Result: TCU wins by two possessions in a lower scoring game.

Week 6 at Iowa State on Oct. 7

Breakdown: At first glance this was going to be one of the trickiest games on TCU’s schedule as Ames is always a tough place to play. However, Iowa State was rocked by a gambling investigation that severely impacted the eligibility of multiple players including starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers and leading rusher Jirehl Brock. Brock voluntarily left the program a few weeks ago.

There are sure to be others as well. The Cyclones should still be solid on defense led by All-Big 12 corner T.J. Tampa, but there’s not enough firepower on the roster to keep pace with TCU for four quarters.

Result: TCU wins by multiple scores.

Week 7 vs. BYU on Oct. 14

Breakdown: The Cougars are an interesting team to keep an eye on this year. BYU isn’t expected to contend, but the program is always physical and well coached. Kingsley Suamataia is a potential first round pick at offensive tackle, but the rest of the offense is unproven. Kedon Slovis is now at his third school after a mediocre year at Pittsburgh. He hasn’t been the same quarterback since his breakout freshman year at USC.

BYU’s defense was bad last year, leading to the Cougars bringing in a new defensive coordinator from Weber State. While I’m not high on BYU, this is a classic trap game with a huge matchup for TCU the following week. As a result the game is a bit sluggish and closer than expected.

Result: TCU wins on a late field goal

Week 8 at Kansas State on Oct. 14

Breakdown: The most challenging game on TCU’s schedule, the Wildcats defeated the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 championship game and return Will Howard at quarterback plus one of the best linemen in the country in AP All-American Cooper Beebe on the offensive line. Deuce Vaughn is gone, but the Wildcats added one of the top transfer running backs available in Treshaun Ward.

There’s more questions about the defense that is losing Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Felix Anudike and corner JuJu Brents. The environment and the experience of K-State offensively will be the difference as TCU drops a second straight to Kansas State.

Result: TCU loses by 10.

Week 10 at Texas Tech on Nov. 2

Breakdown: Another tough road environment awaits TCU for a Thursday night game in Lubbock. One thing that could help TCU is the fact the Horned Frogs will be coming off a bye and should be well rested.

The Red Raiders have been viewed by many as a potential darkhouse due to amount of returning experience at skill positions and a healthy Tyler Shough at quarterback. Questions remain about the offensive line and defense for Tech. As for TCU this is a good matchup for an experienced secondary and an athletic defensive line. This could also be a game where Morris goes off.

Result: TCU escapes Lubbock with a four-point win.

Week 11 vs. Texas on Nov. 11

Breakdown: The biggest game of the year by far, this final conference matchup could have major implications on the conference title race. The Longhorns are the heavy favorites with an offense led Quinn Ewers, Xavier Worthy and Kelvin Banks Jr. Texas is talented as ever, but has struggled on the road so far under Steve Sarkisian and Amon G. Carter should have its best crowd of the year.

If TCU’s offensive line can hold out up front, the Horned Frogs might be better suited to attack the Texas defense with Morris’ accuracy and ability to the fit the ball in tighter windows than Duggan.

Result: TCU wins 27-20.

Week 12 vs. Baylor on Nov. 18

Breakdown: Baylor came within a literal second of keeping TCU out of the College Football Playoff last year, but the heroics of Griffin Kell broke the hearts of fans in Waco. The Bears will once again be a tough matchup with one of the running backs in the league Richard Reese back. Blake Shapen was average in his first year as a starter, but had success against TCU’s defense.

Morris had the best game of his career against the Bears in 2021 and could be poised for another big day against a defense hoping to make improvement with a new defensive coordinator. TCU has won seven of the last 10 in the series and will add another win with a second half surge.

Result: TCU wins by six

Week 13 at Oklahoma on Nov. 24

Breakdown: TCU decimated the Sooners last season to snap a lengthy losing streak, but TCU hasn’t won in Norman since 2005 despite a number of close calls. Oklahoma retooled its leaky defense with one of the best transfer hauls in the country on the defensive line. Dillon Gabriel is still one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 and his concussion against TCU set the team back.

It’s extremely rare that Oklahoma is bad two years in a row, so expect the Sooners to be much improved. In their final Big 12 game the Sooners will outlast TCU in another close call in Norman.

Result: TCU falls 35-27

Final record

The Horned Frogs finish the regular season 10-2, but losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma end up keeping TCU out of the Big 12 championship. After the dust settles on the Big 12 championship game, the Horned Frogs earn a bowl bid to a New Year’s Six bowl game.