Ten races remain in NASCAR’s regular season. Here’s how playoffs could shake out.
Off-the-track storylines have occupied NASCAR headlines since the start of this season — the president at a race, Ryan Newman’s recovery, the coronavirus shutdown, a foray into iRacing, a racial slur, the sport’s stance on social justice, the Confederate flag ban, a noose that wasn’t a hate crime, Jimmie Johnson’s positive COVID-19 test, the president’s tweet and so, so many weather delays.
Any one of those topics could have been the biggest news in NASCAR in any other season. Instead, they’ve all blended together into the unpredictable insanity that is 2020. And incredibly, we’re still less than halfway through.
But the nearly-halfway point provides a good opportunity to check in on — oh yeah, racing — and size up teams as they look to secure a playoff bid in the final stretch of the regular season. There are just 10 points races left before the playoffs kick off in September.
Here’s how playoffs work
A round of 16 teams is narrowed down to 12, then eight, then four over the course of 10 races that constitute the playoffs (one race per week). The final, four-team championship race in November determines the winner of the 2020 season. Whoever wins that race off the finish, not from points, wins the title.
NASCAR recently released its schedule for remaining regular-season races through August, and said that details on playoffs would be announced at a later date. Earlier this season, NASCAR said it wanted to maintain its playoff schedule, but that could change depending on the pandemic.
The championship race is currently scheduled for Nov. 8 at Phoenix Raceway, which is the first time in 18 years that Homestead-Miami Speedway will not host the final race of the season.
Points matter both before and during playoffs, as do race wins because in order to reach the playoffs, drivers must win a race during the regular season. Remaining spots in the top-16 are filled based on points.
Drivers receive points by winning race stages and finishing in the top-10 in both stages and at the race finish. At the start of playoffs, driver points reset to 2,000, but more are added for stage and race wins. (For example, 15 extra points are awarded to the driver who tops the regular season standings.) For more details on the points value breakdown, click here.
Who’s locked in
So far, eight drivers have won a race: Denny Hamlin (four races wins), Kevin Harvick (four), Joey Logano (two), Brad Keselowski (two), Alex Bowman (one), Chase Elliott (one), Martin Truex Jr. (one) and Ryan Blaney (one). Those eight drivers also currently top the points standings, although not necessarily in that order.
Harvick has dominated in points with 13 top-10 finishes, and he’s currently projected to come out on top in playoff points. He leads Hamlin, in second, by eight projected playoff points.
At this time last year — meaning through the first 16 races — eventual 2019 Cup Champion Kyle Busch was in a comparable position as Harvick and Hamlin, with four race wins. He emerged from the regular season with the most points and was therefore granted the most playoff points to start last year’s postseason.
Busch is the biggest name missing from the top-eight conversation. Consistent with last year, Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano, Truex Jr. and Elliott all had race wins at this point (followed shortly by Bowman and Harvick).
So far, Busch has not won a race this year, although he’s earned nine top-10s, seven of which were top-five finishes, and is currently 10th in projected playoff points. The reigning Cup champion is starting on the pole this Sunday at Kentucky, where he’s one of three drivers with two or more race wins.
Who’s got a shot
In addition to Busch, also currently in the top-16 are Aric Almirola — who said he’s aiming for a race win after eight top-10s — Clint Bowyer, William Byron, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Matt DiBenedetto and Austin Dillon.
Almirola, Busch, Byron and Bowyer all made playoffs last year. Kyle Larson, Ryan Newman and Erik Jones rounded out last year’s 16-driver pool.
“We’re in a situation now where we can gamble a little bit,” Almirola said after finishing in third at Indianapolis Sunday. “We can be a little bit more aggressive. We cannot be so conservative and worried about points. Not that we’re going to throw caution to the wind, but we can certainly be more aggressive.”
In addition to Almirola, Johnson will be a driver to watch during the final slew of regular-season races. Last year, the seven-time Cup champion missed the cutoff for playoffs for the first time in his career. He missed Sunday’s race after testing positive for COVID-19 and dropped three places to 15th in points standings.
The No. 48 driver announced before the season that this will be his final year of full-time racing, so a playoff bid would nicely cap his 18-year Cup career. He will be back for this Sunday’s race at Kentucky Speedway.
“My ultimate goal this year, and I think what happened through the self-awareness of the offseason, is just about being present,” Johnson said before the start of the season. “I’m gonna get in that car. I’m gonna give it 100 percent as I always do. Who knows what the outcome is going to be, but lay it on the line and go.”
“I’m not chasing (eight championships),” Johnson said. “I’m going to try to be present and just be me.”
On the fringe
In the 17th spot currently is Jones, who sits six points behind Dillon in 16th. Jones has not missed the playoffs since his rookie season in 2017. He qualified last year and in 2018 off race wins that came in the latter half of the season, so there’s still hope.
But without a win, Jones will have to compete to overtake DiBenedetto and Dillon in those final spots with Cup rookie Tyler Reddick, who is ranked 10 points behind him after four top-10 finishes since the sport returned amid the pandemic.
Bubba Wallace and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. round out the top-20 in points. These final races will make-or-break the season for those guys on the fringe.
The 2020 wildcard
Not much good can be said about COVID-19 upending NASCAR’s season, but if there is one positive thing to transfer from the pandemic to NASCAR’s on-track product, it’s the fact that smaller teams have a better shot of making the playoffs. DiBenedetto’s Wood Brothers Racing team is a perfect example of that, as are the recent Indy results.
“The no practice thing I think has helped us a tremendous amount,” crew chief of Michael McDowell’s No. 34 car Drew Blickensderfer said. “Where we lack compared to some of the other teams is they unload on Friday. They’ve got a team at the shop ready to look at the information from the race track and help the people at the race track and get their car better.”
Blickensderfer’s Front Row Motorsports team finished in seventh place last Sunday. Other small-team drivers in the top-10 last weekend included Reddick in eighth and Wallace in ninth. Stewart-Haas Racing’s Cole Custer also notched his first top-five finish of the season at the Brickyard.
“Guys like Kyle Busch, they are the best in the world at sitting in that seat and saying, ‘I need this to be better on Sunday,’” Blickensderfer said. “They know what the track’s going to do. They know what they feel.”
“(We) don’t always know what’s going to happen on Sunday versus Saturday. (FRM’s drivers) haven’t had great race cars for years and years like some of the veteran guys have had,” Blickensderfer said.
DiBenedetto or Reddick or Wallace could be that small-team bid that sneaks in.
Hamlin’s No. 11 crew chief, Chris Gabehart, noted this week that the lack of practice has prevented the opportunity for teams to optimize their cars, which typically favors larger teams, and indicated that their could be a late run from those teams as they adjust.
“I think the optimized product will look very different,” Gabehart said. “I think the teams with the most resources will continue to get better in this climate.”
The other playoff wildcard could be Chip Ganassi Racing’s Matt Kenseth, who is considered a NASCAR veteran by all accounts (his rookie Cup season was 20 years ago). Kenseth replaced driver Larson in the No. 42 car while the season was postponed, returning from a yearlong hiatus from racing to compete without any practice or qualifying.
Kenseth is currently ranked 28th in points, but he finished second at Indy, proving he could sneak into the postseason with a race win.
“I’m hoping we can just carry that momentum into Kentucky,” Kenseth said after his best finish of the year. “Just keep moving forward with that. Hopefully get to the front like we did today, running up front where this team belongs.”
Kenseth won’t be the only one looking to run up front this weekend and beyond. With playoffs narrowing in, every race is becoming more crucial.
