Tennessee football will break scoring record again in 2022, and other bold predictions

Tennessee football enters coach Josh Heupel’s second season with fewer unknowns than his first.

The Vols return the leading passer (Hendon Hooker), rusher (Jabari Small) and receiver (Cedric Tillman) from their record-breaking offense. Their top three tacklers and sack leader are back on defense.

So there’s less guesswork for UT’s 2022 season, which begins Sept. 1 (7 p.m., SEC Network) against Ball State at Neyland Stadium. But let's give it a try.

Here are five bold predictions for the Vols.

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Vols will break scoring record again

Last season, UT set a team record by scoring 511 points. This team will score even more.

The Vols would need to average at least 39.4 points over 13 games to top that mark. Here’s how they could do it.

Last season, UT averaged 51.3 in games against non-Power 5 teams Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech and South Alabama. It could score a few more against Ball State, Akron and UT Martin this season.

Improving on last year’s 14 points vs. Florida should be a given. And maybe it could put up more than 34 against Pittsburgh or 17 against Georgia. If so, UT’s single-season scoring record will fall.

UT will commit more turnovers

Last season, the Vols committed 13 turnovers in 13 games. It would be difficult to improve on that mark, so don’t be surprised if it’s slightly worse this season.

Particularly, Hooker was almost perfect. His 31 TD passes to three interceptions marked the best ratio in FBS among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.

If he throws even just a couple more interceptions, UT’s turnover count would rise.

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Double-digit sacks drought will end

No UT player has recorded double-digit sacks in a season since career sacks leader Derek Barnett had 13 in 2016.

Bet on edge rusher Byron Young to end that streak with at least 10 sacks this season. And linebacker Jeremy Banks or strongside defensive end Tyler Baron also could make a run at it.

Last season, Young and Banks shared the team lead with 5½ sacks.

But Young, a junior college transfer, did not play in the first two games because of eligibility issues. And he didn’t register a sack in his first three games played.

Now that Young is acclimated to UT’s defensive scheme and better understands his role, more sacks should come.

Freshmen will post multiple 100-yard rushing games

UT could have depth issues at running back, and freshmen make up half the four-man unit. Len’Neth Whitehead suffered a season-ending injury, and transfer Lyn-J Dixon left the program in preseason practice.

So don’t be surprised if freshmen Justin Williams-Thomas and Dylan Sampson carry the ball quite a bit.

Jabari Small is the undisputed starting running back. He gained about 15 pounds in the offseason for durability, but injuries can happen to any running back in a taxing SEC schedule. Backup Jaylen Wright already was limited in preseason practice due to an injury.

Williams-Thomas or Sampson could crack the 100-yard rushing mark in potential blowout wins. But they could also reach that mark in close games, either in the regular rotation or filling in for an injured player.

Last season, UT running backs posted seven 100-yard rushing games, including one by Wright, then a freshman.

September will determine bowl bid

UT plays Ball State, Pitt, Akron and Florida in September. So it could finish the first month at 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0.

There’s a lot of football after that and multiple toss-up games. But the season could steer either direction based on how those early games go.

For example, a 7-5 UT team would perhaps go to the Las Vegas Bowl, Texas Bowl or Music City Bowl again. That would be a mild disappointment.

An 8-4 team could go to the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly Outback), Gator Bowl or maybe Citrus Bowl. That would be a good season and a sign of progress.

A 9-3 team could go to the Citrus Bowl or a New Year’s Six Bowl. That would be a significant step for the program.

Those key games in September could yield a two-game swing, either setting up success or digging a hole.

Reach Adam Sparks at adam.sparks@knoxnews.com and on Twitter @AdamSparks.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football bold predictions for 2022