How will Tennessee's 2024 US Senate race play out? The battle is already underway

Editor's note: This story has been updated to clarify U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn's position on abortion bans.

It's a longshot for any Democrat to successfully unseat U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn. None have won a statewide race in Tennessee since 2006.

But with 14 months to go before Blackburn defends her seat on election night, state Rep. Gloria Johnson, D-Knoxville, is ready for a fight.

Blackburn, 71, came out swinging in response to Johnson's announcement last week – a sign that the incumbent senator takes Johnson’s challenge seriously. Within hours, Blackburn hit back at Johnson with text messages, campaign emails, and a video on social media that painted the 61-year-old retired teacher from Knoxville as a “radical socialist,” “as woke as they come,” and “a threat to our way of life.”

“Our campaign does not take anything for granted,” Blackburn spokesperson Abigail Sigler told The Tennessean in an email.

But Johnson said Blackburn’s policies are the extreme ones, saying that her record in the state legislature – during which she’s advocated to better fund public schools, raise the minimum wage, authorize paid family leave, and expand Medicaid – is “overwhelmingly supported by Republicans, Democrats, and Independents in Tennessee.”

“They want to paint me as some extremist – but they're the ones who are extremists,” Johnson told The Tennessean in an interview. “This Republican Party is extreme, authoritarian – it’s taking away rights.”

The fiery rhetoric is likely a sign of things to come.

The U.S. Senate race will be the first statewide race since three Tennessee Democrats rocketed to national prominence as they faced expulsion from the Tennessee House of Representatives this spring. Johnson, along with Reps. Justin Pearson, D-Memphis, and Justin Jones, D-Nashville, brought House proceedings to a halt by leading a protest calling for gun safety laws from the chamber podium days after a deadly shooting at The Covenant School in Nashville.

Jones and Pearson were both expelled, while Republicans fell one vote short of ousting Johnson. Both have since been reelected. But the Tennessee Three, as they became known, capitalized on the attention, raising millions of dollars and earning a high-profile trip to the White House.

“I think being able to recruit one of the Tennessee Three was is a major win for the Tennessee Democratic Party,” Kent Syler, professor of political science at Middle Tennessee State University, said in an interview. “It brings energy to the race for Senate.”

National attention – and fundraising – brought an energy to the Tennessee Democratic Party not seen in years. But Democrats have been unable to land a statewide victory since Gov. Phil Bredesen was reelected.

Will that energy give Democrats the chance of flipping Blackburn’s seat in deep red Tennessee? Syler said what happens in the state House next spring will be key.

“If Gloria Johnson can generate the same amount of energy as she has been over the last few months – a year from now – that’s an important question,” he said. “If the legislature comes back and has a pretty calm session, people have short memories, and a lot of this energy may get burned away.”

Even so, a statewide victory is unlikely.

“If you feel that Gloria Johnson has to be successful and win the Senate race, I think Democrats will be disappointed,” Syler said. “That is a very, very heavy lift.”

Several other candidates have expressed interest in challenging Blackburn. Marquita Bradshaw – the Democratic nominee who faced U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty for retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander’s seat in 2020 – is one of them. Hagerty defeated Bradshaw by 27 percentage points in 2020. Bradshaw’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment from The Tennessean for this story.

Meanwhile, the slate of candidates for the U.S. Senate seat may still grow: the qualifying deadline for candidates is April 4. The primary is Aug. 1 and the general election is Nov. 4.

Blackburn touts conservative record, Johnson angles for broader appeal

As campaigns begin their work in earnest, Blackburn and Johnson are focusing their energy on the issues that appeal to their bases.

Blackburn is touting her work fighting coronavirus vaccine mandates, reducing federal spending, securing the U.S.-Mexican border, taking on social media companies and efforts on social issues like regulating transgender individuals’ participation in women’s athletic competition. She's also touting her support for Fort Campbell and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

“Tennesseans deserve a United States Senator who is committed to fighting for our conservative values,” Sigler told The Tennessean. “Senator Blackburn has a proven track record of fighting for conservative values and getting things done for Tennessee families.”

A May poll by Vanderbilt University found 45% of respondents disapproved of Blackburn's job performance – the highest number since her election to the U.S. Senate. When asked about her disapproval rating, Blackburn’s team cited historical inaccuracies with the Vanderbilt poll, and instead pointed to two Morning Consult polls from this year, which both put Blackburn’s approval rating at 52%.

Meanwhile, Johnson said she is working to build a campaign that appeals to more than just partisan Democrats: access to affordable healthcare and abortion, well-funded public schools, a living wage, and access to affordable childcare.

“We are building a multi-racial, multi-generational, and multi-partisan coalition – and we’re continuing to build," Johnson said. "There are independents flocking to my campaign, and even Republicans that think women should have bodily autonomy."

Johnson is a retired school teacher and community organizer, who is in her fourth term representing parts of Knoxville in the Tennessee House of Representatives. An outspoken critic of Tennessee's Republican supermajority, Johnson has sponsored legislation to increase the minimum wage, expand Medicaid in Tennessee, and increase access to abortion.

Most Tennesseans agree with Johnson's stance on abortion and guns: the May poll from Vanderbilt found that 82% of Tennesseans support limited abortion access to prevent death or serious health risks for the mother, and 72% support a red flag law to prevent gun-related violence.

Many also agree with Blackburn: except in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother, 65% of Tennesseans agreed that abortion should be outlawed after 15 weeks. Blackburn has voiced support for a 15-week abortion ban, and co-sponsored legislation to establish a federal ban at 20-weeks.

Can Democrats win a statewide election?

Tennesseans have not elected a Democrat to a U.S. Senate seat since reelecting Al Gore in 1990, and no Democrat has won a statewide race for nearly two decades. When a moderate, well-known former governor faced off against Blackburn in 2018, he lost by a 10.8 points, winning only three counties.

So, will Johnson be able do what Bredeson couldn’t?

Johnson said her grassroots focus and decade-long network of connections with local county parties will bolster her efforts.

“I came up through the county party system – I have been to so many bean suppers and fundraising dinners for Democrats across this state,” Johnson said. “I’m a grassroots person. I believe in talking to people on their doorsteps and on the phone, and listening to what people care about.”

Overtaking Blackburn would be a formidable challenge. She kicks off the race with a war chest of $5.5 million, and an entrenched fundraising network. And she’s again working with veteran GOP political strategist Ward Baker – who successfully led Blackburn’s double-digit victory over Bredesen, as well as Hagerty’s 27-point victory in 2020.

“Especially if it turns out to be it at all competitive, you're gonna see lots of attacks on both sides,” Vanderbilt University Poll Co-Director John Geer told The Tennessean. “It could become a nasty race if it's at all close.”

Meanwhile, Pearson is co-chairing Johnson’s campaign fundraising efforts, and Jones has joined her on the campaign trail.

“Gloria Johnson will probably be reasonably well funded,” Geer said. “In recent years, Democrats running statewide have not really had many resources.”

While Johnson has raised nearly $27,000 in campaign contributions following her attempted expulsion this spring, that money went into her state House fundraising account – and cannot legally be transferred to her federal race. But she did launch a fundraising committee ahead of a special legislative session, though at the time, she had not yet formally announced her candidacy. Disclosures are not yet available from the Federal Election Commission.

But while Democrats have been successful in urban areas, the rural counties may prove insurmountable for a Blackburn challenger, Syler said.

“The Democratic Party still has a huge problem in rural Tennessee,” Syler said. “And the gun issue that has really popularized the Tennessee Three is not a popular issue in those counties. And I don't see that going away.”

Where Johnson may help Democrats the most, Syler said, is down ballot.

“What the Democratic Party really should try to take advantage of and capitalize on, potentially (getting a candidate of Gloria Johnson's caliber) is to work on their down ballot team,” Syler said. “They need to be recruiting quality legislative candidates in those relatively few districts – a lot of suburban districts, probably – that they have a chance of picking up.”

How will presidential politics come into play?

The Senate contest will a presidential election year, a different dynamic from Blackburn’s last election, which happened during midterms in 2018.

Blackburn has been a staunch ally of former president Donald Trump, hosting a fundraiser for his presidential bid in Nashville as recently as last month. As president, Trump traveled to Tennessee in 2018 for a Blackburn fundraiser. Blackburn is a member of the Trump 2024 campaign’s state leadership team.

Now, the former president is facing four separate indictments. Geer and Syler both say that a year from now, it’s possible that the presidential ticket for both parties may look very different than polling shows at the moment.

“When you stop and think, there is a real possibility that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump or both won't be at the head of a ticket,” Syler said. “We really just don’t know.”

“I would not assume that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee,” Geer said. “If Trump wasn't the nominee, then that changes a little bit – it would make it harder to tie Blackburn to whatever anti-Trump movements going on, because that anti-Trump movement would have already taken place.”

Geer said that because the presidential nominee will likely get a lot of voter turnout – and split ticket ballots are not common due to strong partisanship – Tennessee's historically strong GOP turnout for presidential candidates could help bolster Blackburn.

“It's a very uphill battle for Gloria Johnson. There's no debate about that,” Geer said. “But, you know, with money and with energy, it might be more of a competitive race than people have thought.”

Vivian Jones covers state government and politics for The Tennessean. Reach her at vjones@tennessean.com or on X and Threads @Vivian_E_Jones. 

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: 2024 Tennessee US Senate race: How Blackburn-Johnson battle plays out