Teren Kowatsch: Commentary: Dissecting the problem with LCSC baseball
Apr. 6—Lewis-Clark State College has the best baseball program at the NAIA level, and it's really not much of a debate.
The Warriors have more national titles than anybody and their home field hosts the NAIA World Series. It's become such a formality at this point for the program to win the regular-season Cascade Conference title and cruise to the World Series.
And yet, this season, that's not the case. Something has happened that's as rare as a four-leaf clover or meeting someone who remembers what Betamax is: LCSC baseball is ... decent. Not great, as the norm, just decent.
On the surface, that might not seem that bad. The Warriors currently stand at 20-10 on the season and 5-7 in conference play. LCSC has 13 games left in the season, 12 against conference opponents.
If this was another season, this wouldn't be the worst outlook and it would be conceivable for the Warriors to eventually find their way to the top of the conference.
But, as mentioned before, this season that's not been the case.
LCSC's conference record currently has them placed in fifth in the Cascade behind, in order, Bushnell, Oregon Tech, College of Idaho and British Columbia. All of those teams currently have significantly better conference win percentages compared to last season.
The Warriors this season were held to one hit (courtesy of Oregon Tech) for the first time since a regional tournament game in 1998 against the College of Idaho. They've lost consecutive series (three or more consecutive games against one opponent) for the first time in program history.
In short, conference opponents are playing better than they normally do, and the Warriors are playing worse.
The question is why?
Well, looking at the stats, that becomes a hard question to answer.
Most stats are down from last season, but only marginally. Team batting average among players who've appeared in at least 75% of games has dropped only .026. Hits per game have dropped by .49. Home runs per game are actually up by .18. Pitchers are walking opposing batters .61 times more per game and striking out .81 batters less per game. Based on these stats, yes, the team is worse. But barely.
The biggest difference is RBI and team ERA.
RBI per game from the 2022 season to now has dropped from 6.15 to 4.9. Team ERA has increased from 3.21 per game to 4.24 per game.
So, LCSC is giving up an extra (earned) run each game and is bringing in one less run this season.
Is that the answer to the teams woes?
Partially. It's more so part of a bigger picture.
The Warriors have played in 13 games this season decided by four runs or less, posting a 7-6 record in those contests.
In 2022, the team also had six losses in games decided by four runs or less. Six losses in 30 games.
And there's part of the answer. LCSC hasn't been winning close games at the rate it typically does. Those two hovering runs definitely play a role, but a lot of the Warriors' problems have been situational.
On Saturday, in the nightcap of the first of two conference doubleheaders against Oregon Tech, LCSC trailed. In the eighth and ninth innings, the Warriors had the bases loaded with two outs with an opportunity to tie or take the lead. They failed to capitalize both times.
Against British Columbia, LCSC had a chance to walk out of the series with an even split in Game 1 of the second pair of doubleheaders. The Warriors tied the game in the ninth but in the 10th and 11th innings, failed to score and the Thunderbirds walked out with the win.
What makes the situation all the more frustrating is that LCSC has also shown it can win in close situations. In the second game of the aforementioned doubleheader against British Columbia, the Warriors won 3-1.
In the last game of the series against Oregon Tech, Carter Booth hit a three-run walk-off homer to give LCSC a 10-8 win.
But these recent scenarios highlight the inconsistency that the Warriors team has been fraught with the whole season.
Head coach Jake Taylor used the words "feeble" and "inconsistent" to describe the LCSC offense in the series against Oregon Tech and British Columbia.
"Inconsistent" is the key word. In a large number of games this season, the Warriors have put together solid pitching performances, solid hitting performances, but rarely have they accomplished both in the same game.
A lot of this can simply be due to the lack of experience on the 2023 LCSC roster.
Not including redshirted players, 14 players on the Warriors' 2022 active roster were underclassmen. There are 23 active underclassmen this season.
In 2022, there were 23 active upperclassmen on the roster. This season there's 17.
Since 1977, when former coach Ed Cheff took over, it's been an extreme rarity for the program to roster more underclassmen than upperclassmen.
Ultimately, all of this leads up to the answer as to why Lewis-Clark State has been struggling: Cascade Conference teams are playing better this season compared to last, and the Warriors have a young, inexperienced team that, while still talented, is still trying to figure out how to win close games against a much more competitive field.
The depth of LCSC has been so important in the program's history — and this season the depth isn't nearly as experienced as years past.
With all this being said, it's worth repeating, the season isn't lost for the Warriors. Even if the team loses out on the regular season conference title, it isn't outside the realm of possibility the team finds a way to win the postseason conference title and the NAIA Opening Round. The team isn't bad, and it has a month to figure things out.
But situational baseball is difficult to simulate. And it's definitely possible there will be a few more close games in the future and there will continue to be growing pains for this team, at least for the regular season.
If there is a chance for LCSC to right the ship, it has to start immediately on Friday in Game 1 of a four-game series against College of Idaho.
Kowatsch can be reached at 208-848-2277, tkowatsch@lmtribune.com or on Twitter @Teren_Kowatsch.
