How can Terry Rozier help lift Heat’s struggling offense? A look at what Rozier brings

The Miami Heat’s offense has been among the NBA’s worst for the past two regular seasons. That’s a large enough sample size to know that something new was needed.

So the Heat made a change in hopes of fixing some of its offensive issues, acquiring guard Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets in a trade on Tuesday for guard Kyle Lowry and a lottery-protected 2027 first-round pick.

One look at Rozier’s production this season is enough to realize that he will be able to immediately help a struggling Heat offense that entered Wednesday night’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies at Kaseya Center with the NBA’s 20th-ranked offensive rating for the season and 28th-ranked offensive rating in January.

Rozier, who has been cleared to make his Heat debut on Wednesday, is in the middle of what’s on track to be the best season of his career. He averaged career highs in points (23.2 per game) and assists (6.6 per game) while shooting 35.8 percent on 7.7 three-point attempts per game and a career-best 45.9 percent from the field in 30 games for the Hornets prior to the trade.

Rozier’s true shooting percentage (shooting percentage that factors in the value of three-point field goals and free throws in addition to conventional two-point field goals) of 57.4 percent this season is very close to his career-best true shooting percentage of 57.5 percent set in 2020-21 despite increased usage this season. With Hornets guard LaMelo Ball missing an extended stretch, Rozier has managed to remain an efficient offensive player despite needing to step into a career-high usage rate (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the court) of 26.8 percent this season.

But just how much Rozier, 29, helps the Heat will depend on how he fits into his new role.

With the Heat’s leading trio of Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro still expected to be at the center of the offense, Rozier will need to fit in around them.

Rozier’s usage rate won’t be as high and he won’t take 18 shots per game like he did with the Hornets this season.

Will that mean more spot-up opportunities for Rozier? That hasn’t been a strength for him, as he’s shooting just 29.9 percent on 2.9 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game this season and shot just 33.8 percent on 3.5 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game in 2022-23.

So the Heat will need to find a way to get Rozier in on-ball situations to maximize his offensive skill set. That will likely lead to lower usage rates for Herro (career-high 28 percent this season) and Adebayo (career-high 27 percent this season) moving forward, who have the two highest usage rates on the team this season.

If Rozier’s production with the Hornets is any indication, that trade off will be worth it.

Among the 18 players who entered Wednesday averaging at least four pull-up three-point attempts per game this season, Rozier is shooting the third-highest percentage on those opportunities at 39.3 percent behind only Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden (44.3 percent) and New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (40.1 percent), according to NBA tracking stats. Rozier is ahead of players like Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton and Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young on that list.

Rozier has also been among the NBA’s best in pick-and-roll sets this season and now he gets to play with a dynamic roller in Adebayo. Among the 44 players who entered Wednesday averaging at least five possessions per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, according to NBA tracking stats, Rozier is producing the second-most points per possession (1.11) in those situations behind only Haliburton (1.12).

Rozier is also an above average player in isolation situations, using the dribble to create for himself and others. He’s ranked in the NBA’s 69th percent for points per possession in isolation sets, according to NBA tracking stats.

Then there’s the much-needed rim pressure Rozier will inject into the Heat’s offense. He has taken 49 percent of his field-goal attempts from within 14 feet of the basket this season, including 27 percent of his shots at the rim (58th percentile among all guards), according to Cleaning the Glass.

This is an area of Rozier’s game that the Heat’s offense desperately needs. With Adebayo, Butler and Herro all taking a large chunk of their shots from the midrange, just 28.8 percent of Miami’s shot attempts have come at the rim this season (third-lowest percentage in the NBA), according to Cleaning the Glass.

But one problem Rozier might not be able to fix is the Heat’s inefficiency around the rim. Not only has Miami had trouble generating opportunities around the basket, but the Heat is shooting just 61.7 percent from within the restricted area this season (fifth-lowest percentage in the NBA), according to NBA tracking stats.

Rozier is shooting just 57 percent at the rim this season (29th percentile among all guards), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Rozier’s ability to get into the paint does translate into free throws, though, which will be helpful for a Heat offense that needs as many easy points as it can get. He’s shooting 84.5 percent on a career-high 4.3 free-throw attempts per game and has drawn fouls on a career-high 8.4 percent of his shot attempts this season.

As for Rozier’s playmaking, that’s another dimension of his offensive package that will help the Heat. Not only is he averaging a career-high in assists, but he’s also averaging 10.7 potential assists this season (any pass to a teammate who shoots within one dribble of receiving the ball) that would rank first on the Heat.

Rozier is an excellent lob thrower, too, assisting on 17 alley-oops this season.

Rozier has also only committed a turnover on 9.2 percent of the possessions he has been used in, which ranks in the NBA’s 80th percentile among guards.

On the other end of the court, Rozier is not known as an elite or versatile defender at 6-1 and 190 pounds. But Rozier does have a 6-8 wingspan and he competes on defense, averaging 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocks per game this season.

Still, Rozier did post the third-worst defensive estimated plus/minus among Hornets players this season and his point-of-attack defense will be an area to monitor. But the Heat’s defensive scheme should aid Rozier, as it’s built to shrink the floor and wall of the paint by sending help defenders

Make no mistake about it, though, the Heat traded for Rozier because of how he can help its offense. He’s a three-level scorer who will help push the pace and set up others.

Considering Lowry was averaging just 8.2 points on 6.5 field-goal attempts per game while posting a career-low usage rate of 13.3 percent this season, replacing him with a high-usage player like Rozier is going to change the complexion of the Heat’s offense.

That’s exactly what the Heat’s floundering offense needed — something new. Whether it leads to something significantly better will be determined in the coming weeks and months.

▪ The Heat ruled out Jaime Jaquez Jr. (strained left groin) and Dru Smith (right knee surgery) for Wednesday’s matchup against the Grizzlies.

After hosting the Grizzlies on Wednesday, the Heat will take on the Boston Celtics in an Eastern Conference finals rematch on Thursday at Kaseya Center (7:30 p.m., TNT). This back-to-back in Miami is the second of three home-and-home sets for the Heat this season.