Thai Court Suspends PM Prayuth, Stoking Intrigue as Vote Nears

(Bloomberg) -- Eight years ago, then-army chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha staged a coup in Thailand and ripped up the constitution. On Tuesday, he was suspended as prime minister until a court determines whether he violated the new charter produced by his allies.

The surprise action by Thailand’s Constitutional Court puts Prayuth on the sidelines at least temporarily until it rules on whether he breached an eight-year term limit, which his opponents say began after he seized power in 2014. Prayuth stayed on as prime minister following a 2019 election under rules that heavily favored his military-aligned political group.

His suspension by the court, whose members are approved by the military-appointed Senate, raises questions about whether Thailand’s power brokers are looking to replace him ahead of another election that must be called by March 2023. And even if Prayuth ends up staying, any ruling would start the clock ticking on his tenure and put the focus on possible successors.

Either way, it’s unlikely the ruling will open the door for the military-backed ruling party to hand power to pro-democracy parties that have been repeatedly pushed aside over the past two decades. The new caretaker leader during Prayuth’s suspension is Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, who is also a former army chief.

Investors seemed to shrug off the political risks, with stocks, bonds and currency all rallying on Thursday. The baht rose as much as 0.9% against the US dollar, the main stock index climbed 0.7% while the yield on benchmark 10-year sovereign bonds fell seven basis points.

Prawit’s temporary elevation signals that he’s a potential candidate for the ruling Palang Pracharath to nominate as prime minister instead of Prayuth in the next election, according to Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political analyst with Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.

“The establishment will have to find a new player, and it’s not apparent at this time who could replace Prayuth,” Yuttaporn said. “His popularity has been declining so much that he’s not an attractive candidate anymore.”

Prayuth’s powers are suspended from Aug. 24 until the court rules on a petition filed by opposition parties. The court said in a statement Wednesday it was a unanimous decision to accept the petition, and didn’t provide a timeline for when it would make a final ruling.

Declining Popularity

Prayuth, 68, will have 15 days to submit a response to the court upon receiving a copy of the petition. He plans to continue as defense minister, and appeared to take the ruling in stride.

“General Prayuth Chan-Ocha fully respects the constitutional court’s decision, and will stop performing duties as prime minister from today,” government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri said in a statement.

Recent opinion polls show Prayuth’s popularity has declined in part due to his administration’s handling of Covid and accelerating inflation. More than 93% of 374,063 surveyed by a network of academics from eight Thai universities said he shouldn’t stay in office for more than eight years, according to results published on Monday.

The court’s decision is part of “a strategic game to make the establishment look good and at least restore the trust in the constitutional court and the country’s reputation ahead of polls,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.

The term limits were included in the constitution as part of establishment concerns over former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, whose allies have dominated elections in Thailand since the turn of the century. While he’s currently in exile, a party aligned with him is the military’s main competition in the next election.

Counter-claims

Prayuth’s opponents had sought the court ruling on term limits, arguing he cannot stay a day beyond Aug. 23 under the military-backed charter enacted in 2017. His supporters argue this term should be counted only from when the constitution took effect. Others put his start date in 2019, when he became a civilian prime minister.

In a joint statement on Sunday, 38 groups including civil society and student activists called on Prayuth to resign and urged the Constitutional Court to decide on his fate by Wednesday. Many groups are staging protests at different locations in Bangkok including the Government House this week to pressure the premier to step down.

Prayuth’s resignation has been a key demand of protesters who have also called for reforms to the monarchy, Thailand’s most powerful institution.

“For the protesters including young people it’s not about just Prayuth,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. “It’s the whole system. But if they get rid of Prayuth they will be emboldened to build momentum.”

(Updates with market moves in fifth paragraph.)

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