What Thailand’s Election Outcome May Mean for Military, Monarchy

Kristine Servando and Patpicha Tanakasempipat
·3 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Pro-democracy groups in Thailand have made a stunning political comeback after nine years of rule by the conservative military-backed bloc helmed by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha.

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The next leader faces challenges including steering the future of the $506 billion economy that counts China as its largest trading partner while navigating US and Asean relations. Also at stake is the fate of one of Asia’s worst-performing stock markets and the revival of Thailand’s key tourism sector.

Reformist group Move Forward and opposition stalwart Pheu Thai are on course to win about 58% of seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. That hands the pro-democracy camp a strong leverage in the selection of the prime minister where a 250-member Senate gets to vote alongside the lower house.

As the military bloc dominates the Senate and can still count on allies in the House, analysts expect weeks, if not months of power jockeying and behind-the-scenes negotiations before a coalition government is formed.

What does this result mean for the country?

A resounding victory for Pita Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward is a rebuke to the military junta that touted a period of relative political stability, even while it was punctuated by economic slump and youth-led street protests.

It signals broad support for reforms, including Move Forward’s call to amend the law against insulting the king and members of the royal family. The lese majeste law, one of the strictest in the world, mandates up to 15 years in prison for offenses against the monarchy.

Read More: Thai Election Shaped by New Generation Challenging the Monarchy

The result also marks a disappointment for Pheu Thai, backed by exiled tycoon and ousted ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, whose youngest daughter Paetongtarn ran for the top job. Despite living overseas and facing a corruption conviction at home, Thaksin’s pro-farmer policy and push for universal healthcare known as “Thaksinomics” helped keep a steady tide of support for Pheu Thai from the populous rural heartlands.

This is the first time a party not backed by Thaksin captured the most lower-house seats since the turn of the century — which could signal the Shinawatra allure is fading.

So what could come next?

If history is any guide, Thai politics is likely to have many twists and turns.

On Monday, Move Forward and Pheu Thai leaders said they have agreed on forming a coalition led by Pita that will also include four other parties. Pheu Thai is open to discussing a proposal to amend the lese majeste law Pita intends to introduce in parliament.

But some analysts reckon the Senate might move to block Pita’s bid to lead the country, opening the door for Pheu Thai to stake claim to form a government with its allies. Pheu Thai could even link up with conservative groups like the centrist and pro-cannabis Bhumjaithai party.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha, 69, said Sunday he respects the election result, where his United Thai Party got only 36 seats.

Who else is in line?

If the Harvard-educated Pita, 42, fails to win the parliamentary nod, Pheu Thai’s Paetongtarn, 36, and former real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin, 60, may be in with a chance.

The Senate can also rally behind a conservative candidate such as former coup leader Prayuth. Anutin Charnvirakul, head of the Bhumjaithai party that came third in the election, may also emerge as a consensus candidate.

--With assistance from Philip J. Heijmans.

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