The Catchup: 5 major political stories this week, from Biden's softening support to preparations for a last-gasp GOP debate

You’re shifting gears to head into the weekend, so here are the top five political stories worth thinking about this week — and what it all means for you.

The week of Oct. 30 saw Democrats and Republicans alike prepare for a series of crucial (if sometimes under the radar) elections this coming Tuesday. It also saw the departure of Mike Pence from the presidential race ahead of a last-gasp debate among former President Donald Trump’s Republican rivals, and new worries that the war between Israel and Hamas could jeopardize President Biden’s election prospects.

Here are the highlights from the past week along with a look-ahead to the next.

Abortion rights to play starring role in Tuesday’s elections

Off-year legislative elections are often sleepy affairs. This year, however, they’re the talk of the political world. Republicans have a narrow majority in the Virginia state House, while Democrats have similarly slim advantage in the state Senate. Should Republicans take control of the entire Legislature — all 140 seats are on the ballot this year — Democrats warn that they could pass a 15-week abortion ban championed by GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Meanwhile in Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has been leading his Republican challenger, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, by wide margins for months. Abortion has been a front-and-center issue throughout the contest, with Beshear hammering home the point that Cameron supports the state’s strict abortion ban.

And in Ohio, Democrats hope that voters support Issue 1, which would create a constitutional right to abortion in the state. The measure is expected to pass despite Ohio’s Republican lean.

Why it matters

• If Republicans manage to win the Virginia Legislature, there’s a good chance they will pass a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. This would be the biggest victory for anti-abortion activists since the repeal of Roe v. Wade last year, which quickly proved unpopular throughout much of the country and helped power the Democrats’ better-than-expected showing in the 2022 midterms.

• The Virginia contest will also be seen as a key sign of each party’s strengths ahead of next year’s presidential election. Virginia has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, so a big GOP victory there on Tuesday is sure to make Democratic lawmakers and strategists anxious.

• If the polls are correct and Beshear triumphs in the otherwise reliably red state, it will be yet more proof that Republicans’ hard-line stance on abortion has become an albatross for the GOP heading into 2024.

• Since the Roe v. Wade repeal, every major ballot initiative pertaining to abortion has been won by abortion rights advocates, including in conservative states like Kansas.

• Other races worth watching on Tuesday include the Mississippi gubernatorial contest, where Democrat Brandon Presley is looking to pull off an upset against Republican Gov. Tate Reeves. Abortion also has a starring role in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race on Tuesday.

Good reads on this

• Yahoo News: A deeper dive into next week’s big elections

• Wall Street Journal: Why a 2023 election in Virginia is a proving ground for 2024

• Yahoo News: Will Brandon Presley — an Elvis cousin — be the next governor of Kentucky?

Democrats fret that the Israel-Hamas war could hurt Biden

Biden’s decision to support Israel’s efforts to eliminate the militant group Hamas after its devastating Oct. 7 terror attack may be costing him support within his own party.

The warning signs seem to be everywhere in the weeks since Israel began pummeling Gaza, the impoverished Hamas-run enclave from which the Oct. 7 attack was launched. One poll found Biden’s support among Arab Americans collapsing from 59% in 2020 to just 17%. His approval rating among all Democrats, according to Gallup, tumbled 11 points in October. Progressive Democratic lawmakers, meanwhile, are defying the White House and calling for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict.

Why it matters

• Surveys indicate that Democratic voters have, broadly speaking, become steadily more supportive of the Palestinian cause in recent years. Democratic leaders like President Biden, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, however, remain staunchly pro-Israel.

• In a visit to Minnesota this week, Biden was met by pro-Palestinian demonstrators. Muslim and Arab Americans tend to be concentrated in swing states like Minnesota and Michigan, both of which are essentially must-wins for Biden as he seeks to retain control of the White House next year.

• The White House announced on Wednesday that it was setting up a U.S. National Strategy to Combat Islamophobia. “For too long, Muslims in America and those perceived to be Muslim, such as Arabs and Sikhs, have endured a disproportionate number of hate-fueled attacks and other discriminatory incidents,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

Good reads on this

• NBC News: As he visits Minnesota, local Muslim leaders say they will ‘abandon Biden’

• The Week: Is Biden’s Israel-Palestine positioning an election-year risk?

One last Republican debate?

The third (and perhaps final) Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary will be held in Miami this Wednesday. It will air on NBC with moderators Lester Holt, Kristen Welker and conservative pundit Hugh Hewitt.

So far, five candidates have qualified to make the stage: former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Trump, the runaway favorite to win the Republican nomination, will not be in attendance.

Why it matters

• Haley and DeSantis have been vying for second place for some time now. DeSantis initially had the upper hand, but his sagging poll numbers have created an opportunity for Haley, who impressed viewers of the first GOP debate in August.

• Pollsters and strategists say the only hope anti-Trump Republicans have to beat the former president is to quickly coalesce behind another candidate — be it Haley, DeSantis or someone else. However, that window of opportunity is shrinking by the day.

Good reads on this

• NBC News: Trump is looking to take on Ron DeSantis’s base of power in the Florida GOP

• CBS News: Tim Scott secures space on debate stage after strategy overhaul

• Semafor: Inside the last-ditch effort to sell Republicans on anyone but Trump

Mike Pence drops out

The former vice president ended his long-shot presidential campaign during a speech last weekend at a meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition. While he has not yet endorsed anyone else, he did tell attendees to resist “the siren song of populism” within the GOP.

Why it matters

• Pence is an old-school social conservative who rose through the ranks of the House GOP before becoming governor of Indiana and, eventually, Trump’s vice president. Their relationship never recovered after Pence, despite much prodding from Trump and his aides, refused to go along with the idea that Democrats had stolen the 2020 election.

• Pence’s dismissal of Trump’s baseless election conspiracy theories won him new respect from moderate Republicans. However, most in the party sided with Trump over Pence, and the former vice president’s campaign struggled from the start.

• “He was caught between a rock and a hard place: not Trumpy enough for the Trumpies, and too Trumpy for the people who wanted to move on from Trump,” Republican strategist Whit Ayers told Yahoo News after Pence dropped out.

Good reads on this

• Yahoo News: What we can learn from Pence’s presidential campaign

• Yahoo News: Mike Pence seems to know where he’s going

• Miami Herald: Pence exits portends a narrower GOP field. Which candidates will benefit?

George Santos survives

The scandal-plagued New York Republican fended off an attempt to expel him from the House of Representatives. The effort was opposed by new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and most of the Republican Caucus, along with 31 Democrats.

Why it matters

• It is rare for a member of the House to be expelled. It last happened in 2002, after the eccentric Ohio Democratic Rep. Jim Traficant was convicted of numerous felonies, including racketeering and taking bribes.

• Those who voted against expulsion noted that Santos has not yet been convicted of anything. “This would be a terrible precedent to set, expelling people who have not been convicted of a crime and without internal due process,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat.

Good reads on this

Miami Herald: George Santos survives expulsion attempt. Why did so many Democrats help him?