Things Look Grim For Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) After Today's Downgrade

Simply Wall St
·3 min read

One thing we could say about the analysts on Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

After the downgrade, the consensus from Voyager Therapeutics' nine analysts is for revenues of US$31m in 2021, which would reflect a painful 82% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Following this this downgrade, earnings are now expected to tip over into loss-making territory, with the analysts forecasting losses of US$3.10 per share in 2021. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$50m and US$2.40 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Voyager Therapeutics

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The consensus price target fell 10.0% to US$10.85, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Voyager Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, the analysts are almost certainly betting on widely diverse outcomes for the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 82% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 61% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 19% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Voyager Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Voyager Therapeutics. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Voyager Therapeutics going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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