If you think storms are bad in Texas now, wait until you see what’s in store for 2023

Sure it’s obscenely hot in North Texas right now, but be careful what you wish for, because Texas has other weather changes to worry about.

The flipside to hot and dry weather is cool and wet weather, which is exactly what Texas weather has in store for the rest of 2023.

When will the hot weather be over?

Though Dallas-Fort Worth saw a two day reprieve from the heat, with max temperatures of 93 degrees on Saturday, and 98 degrees on Sunday, the hot weather is nowhere near over with, according to meteorologist Victor Murphy at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

This weekend’s temperatures are near the long-term normal of 96 degrees for this time of year. However, summer still has a long way to go.

Per the 30 year normal average temperatures from 1991 to 2020, the hottest week of the year in DFW is August 1 to 7, with average daily maximum temperatures of 97.2 degrees. In keeping up with this, starting Monday, DFW will likely have a string of eight straight days (July 24-July 31) with maximum temperatures greater than 100 degrees.

It’s likely that we’ll see a continued uptick in the number of calendar days with record warm minimum temperatures and the number of calendar days with record warm maximum temperatures. So far in 2023, DFW has seen five calendar days with record warm maximum temperatures, but no days with record low maximum temps. DFW has seen 10 calendar days with record warm minimum temps so far this year, but no days with record low minimum temperatures. So, we’ve seen 15 calendar days so far this year with record warm high or low temperatures, versus zero days with record cold high or low temperatures.

What’s next for North Texas weather?

The biggest weather event that will transpire through the rest of 2023 will be the existence of an El Nino pattern in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Murphy said. Going forward, from October through December, this should lead to above normal precipitation amounts and likely below normal temperatures. Both of these may be welcome by Texans after the drought and heat this summer.

After a string of 100-degree days last summer, relief came from an August deluge that made the month the wettest since record keeping began in 1899. More than 10.38 inches of rain was recorded surpassing the previous record set in 1915.

Average rainfall from Aug. 1 through Dec. 31 is 14.64 inches, with October being by far the wettest of the remaining five months of the year. Due to El Nino, Murphy expects a tilt towards wetter than normal weather through the end of the year.

In general, the entire U.S. is seeing an increase in extreme rain events, which Murphy says is due to climate change and the fact that the warming atmosphere can hold more water vapor. Under the right circumstances (i.e. a tropical cyclone, a stalled cold front or an area of upper level low pressure), these are more likely to occur for the rest of 2023.

For this reason, the most likely extreme weather conditions that we can expect would be a heavy rain event. But it is impossible to predict exactly when they will occur, and whether one will affect DFW, Murphy added.