THOMA COLUMN | Yankees? No, if there's a superteam, it's the Dodgers
Aug. 22—I really ought to know better.
Back in May, when the New York Yankees were riding high, I took seriously the possibility that they would continue to play at a 120-win pace, that they could compile the greatest regular-season record ever.
As of Sunday morning, the Yankees weren't even on pace for 100 wins. Four teams have better records. They have a very good record — but they no longer threaten to break the 1906 Chicago Cubs' record for winning percentage (in a notably shorter season than today's marathon) or to challenge the 2001 Seattle Mariners (116 wins) or 1998 Yankees (114) in win totals.
If there is a superteam this year, it's the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers entered Sunday at 83-36, a .697 winning percentage that puts them on pace for 111 wins — and a 36-8 record since the end of June.
Only 15 American and National League teams have ever had .700 winning percentages for a season, and only two — those aforementioned Mariners and Yankees teams — have done so in a 162-game schedule. (One of those 15 is the 2020 Dodgers in the two-month COVID season, a mark that deserves serious discounting.)
This year's Dodgers obviously have an opportunity to get there. And if they continue to lose just one game a week, they will.
But that is gargantuan if. To get to 116 wins, they'd have to go 33-10 the rest of the way, which is a slower pace than they've set but still incredibly strong. (To catch the 1906 Cubs in winning percentage, they'd have to win 124 games, and 41-2 just ain't happening.)
The thing is, it's easy to look at the Dodgers' stats and spot the weaknesses. Closer Craig Kimbrel has an ERA in the mid 4s; veterans Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger, mainstays of the lineup in recent seasons, have a combined batting average of .215.
And that about covers the flaws. The Dodgers have four starters with ERAs under 3.
They have Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman putting up MVP-quality numbers at the plate, and Mookie Betts, at least if you buy into WAR, is right there with them. They lead the National League in runs scored, and they have allowed 80 fewer runs than the next stingiest team in the league.
The Dodgers' win Saturday night cut their magic number to clinch the NL West to 24. On Aug. 20.
MLB has steadily and deliberately devalued the regular season, so the Dodgers don't have a lot of incentive to pursue history. The 1954 Cleveland Indians won 111 games and had to go hard all season because the Yankees that year had their best record of the Casey Stengel years.
There's nobody pushing the Dodgers this year.
Then there's this: Of those 15 teams with .700 winning percentages, only six won the World Series.
Remember, the postseason is not designed, and never was, to reward superiority. Even if L.A. wins 117 games, the Dodgers will have to pick their way through multiple short series to claim the title.
It won't be easy. Remember earlier I said four teams have better records than the Yankees now? Two of the others, the Mets and Braves, are in the National League.
It's a minefield.
Edward Thoma is at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. Twitter: @bboutsider.
