Thomas Suddes: Abortion rights rocked Kansas. Ohio could be next?
Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. tsuddes@gmail.com
The earthquake that shook Kansas Tuesday may generate aftershocks in Ohio, something Ohio pols, especially in the General Assembly, are sure to feel.
Not wine and cheese country
Kansans voted 59% to 41% to maintain access to abortion there. That was the first statewide test of voter reaction to the U.S. Supreme Court’s June 24 Dobbs decision. That ruling overthrew the court’s 1973 Roe vs. Wade majority, which had legalized abortion nationwide.
Abortion rights: In decisive abortion rights victory, Kansas voters reject constitutional amendment in first post-Roe vote
Although Kansas has elected Democratic governors (including Kathleen Sebelius, daughter of Ohio Gov. John J. Gilligan), Kansas isn’t exactly wine-and-cheese country.
The last time Kansas supported a Democrat for president was in 1964. And Kansas gave 56% of its 2020 presidential vote to Donald Trump. (Ohio gave him 53% of its vote.)
Tellingly, the Kansas ballot issue drew huge turnout: “Indeed, 2022 saw some of the highest turnout in any primary election in (Kansas) history, with many voters saying they came to the polls specifically to weigh in on the (abortion) amendment,” the Topeka Capital-Journal’s Andrew Bahl reported.
More: How to submit guest opinion columns to the Columbus Dispatch
What could it mean for Ohio?
In Columbus, even the dullest knife in the Statehouse kitchen knows big turnout, in Ohio at least, means big Democratic turnout. And that’s not an ideal scenario for Statehouse Republicans, even after allowing for their gerrymandering.
The Kansas legislature proposed the anti-abortion ballot issue that voters rejected. Whether Ohio’s General Assembly would do the same – propose to voters state constitutional limits on abortion – is an open question. The Republican-run legislature certainly wouldn’t propose a ballot issue guaranteeing abortion access.
Abortion rights: Democratic lawmakers want to protect abortion access by amending Ohio's constitution
That’s why a group of Democratic women in the legislature has said it wants to propose, by voter petition, a state constitutional amendment to do that. It’s unclear where the potential ballot issue stands, but collecting a minimum of 442,958 valid signatures from voters statewide isn’t a walk in the park.
In other news
Voters denied nomination to just three members of the 132-member General Assembly – one Democrat and two Republicans.
The Democrat is Rep. Monique Smith, of North Olmsted, in Greater Cleveland’s redrawn 16th House District. She lost Tuesday to fellow Rep. Bride Rose Sweeney, a Westlake Democrat. The Republican nominee for the 16th District is Michael Lamb, of Westlake.
Before a federal judicial panel imposed the current boundaries, Smith and Sweeney lived in separate districts. They moved into the 16th at least in part to avoid potential challenges against other incumbents. The House Democratic caucus – unfairly, Smith said – supported Sweeney.
Earlier coverage: Confusion, conflict in Ohio's legislative primary election
Republican primary voters, meanwhile, denied nominations to two House incumbents. One is Rep. Mark Fraizer, of Newark, of the 68th House District, composed of parts of Licking County. The other GOP incumbent is Rep. Shawn Stevens, of Sunbury, of the 61st House District, composed of parts of Delaware and Knox counties.
On Tuesday, GOP voters nominated challenger Thad Claggett, also of Newark, for the House seat that Fraizer now holds. House Republicans had appointed Stevens to the House on March 9 to fill a mid-term vacancy. No Democrat filed for the seat.
Also Tuesday, the 61st District’s Republicans nominated primary challenger Beth Lear, of Galena, rather than Stevens, for the House seat. The Democratic nominee is Louise Valentine, of Genoa Township.
You’d think the next electoral hurdle for Ohio House Republicans would be Nov. 8’s general election. Actually, unless even more sleaze surfaces in the House Bill 6-FirstEnergy scandal, House Republican are set to keep their Ohio House majority, come what may. The current House districts were drawn precisely for that purpose by the Redistricting Commission.
No, for House Republicans, Nov. 8 is just a mile-marker on the road to this year’s main event: The election by Republicans of the Ohio House’s next speaker who, when she or he decides to exercise power, can have as much as any governor.
Among potential candidates for the speakership: Republican Reps. Phil Plummer, of Dayton, of the 39th District, and Jason Stephens, of Lawrence County’s Kitts Hill, in the 93rd District (Gallia, Jackson and Lawrence counties) at Ohio’s southernmost tip.
What’ll be at stake is more than who holds the gavel – it’s who’ll call the shots.
Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. tsuddes@gmail.com
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Thomas Suddes: Will Ohio propose constitutional limits on abortion?
