Those Who Purchased Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA) Shares A Year Ago Have A 36% Loss To Show For It

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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the Bega Cheese Limited (ASX:BGA) share price is down 36% in the last year. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 12%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 14% in three years. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 5.3%.

Check out our latest analysis for Bega Cheese

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unhappily, Bega Cheese had to report a 92% decline in EPS over the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 36% the share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have expected earnings to drop faster. Indeed, with a P/E ratio of 70.02 there is obviously some real optimism that earnings will bounce back.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:BGA Past and Future Earnings, June 27th 2019
ASX:BGA Past and Future Earnings, June 27th 2019

Dive deeper into Bega Cheese's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Bega Cheese's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Bega Cheese's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Bega Cheese's TSR of was a loss of 34% for the year. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 12% in the last year, Bega Cheese shareholders lost 34% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.5% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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