Threats to salmon washed away by spring rains

Jun. 10—TRAIL — Near-record spring rain and snow has washed away drought threats to the Rogue River's wild salmon and has set in motion a summer Rogue rafting season with fewer rocks to dodge.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers released updated plans Thursday for water releases from Lost Creek Lake into the Rogue through October, and the numbers provide a stark contrast to the drought-dogged plans from just three months ago.

Spawned by years of drought, low water levels at Lost Creek Lake prompted state fish managers to expect the worst drought-related die-offs of wild Rogue fall chinook salmon in more than two decades.

And Rogue summer flows, which are heavily buoyed by releases of water from Lost Creek, were expected to be low enough to bog down boaters and create pinball-like rock conditions for rafters in the Wild and Scenic Rogue River Canyon.

Moreover, biologists were expecting anywhere from a third to half of this year's wild fall chinook run to die from natural warm-water disease outbreaks not seen since 2001.

But a funny thing happened on the way to this summer's water pity-party.

Spring rain and snow at near-record levels at Crater Lake pushed Lost Creek to nearly full, and raised outflow forecasts well above average, all but guaranteeing a safer summer on the river for salmon and people.

"We went from nothing to flows that will make the rafters happy all summer," says Pete Samarin, an Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife biologist who helps craft Lost Creek water releases to the Rogue annually.

"And we're looking at zero mortality for fall chinook," Samarin says.

The Corps of Engineers' new water-release plan for Lost Creek has releases at 3,000 cubic feet per second through June, then dropping to 2,500 cfs July 1 and walking down slowly to 1,900 cfs from mid-July through mid-August.

Those flows are almost twice those of last year through that period, records show.

Water releases will spike to 2,100 cfs Aug. 11 to help create higher, cooler flows for migrating fall chinook in the lower Rogue. Lower, hotter flows can trigger natural fish-killing diseases, such as columnaris, to break out.

Lost Creek Lake releases then will be walked down to 1,100 cfs in mid-September and stay there through October.

Last year's late-summer and fall releases were 925 cfs last year.

This year, the upper basin's water runoff for April through September was pegged at 60% of average in late March, records show. It's now at 95% of average.

"That's unbelievable," Samarin says.

The Rogue's dominant reservoir bottomed out at 1,771 feet above sea level last year. That's 41 feet below the normal bottoming out elevation in normal years.

Expectations of filling Lost Creek were all but dashed before this spring's deluge, which has created inflows so strong that the reservoir is close to full and in need of higher than normal releases to keep it that way.

The congressional act that created the reservoir in 1962 gave salmon the highest summer priority for water releases, with recreation taking a back seat.

However, lake levels are expected to remain high enough that the boat ramp at Joseph H. Stewart State Park should remain operational through Labor Day.

Mark Freeman covers the outdoors for the Mail Tribune. Reach him at 541-776-4470 or at mfreeman@rosebudmedia.com.