Three key questions that Heat must reconcile before Beal potentially becomes available

There has been no indication — at this point — to suggest that All-Star guard Bradley Beal wants out of Washington or that the Wizards are willing to trade him.

But as the losses mount for the 3-10 Wizards and Beal’s frustration grows — which can be seen either on his face or in his words after many of these losses — it feels almost inevitable now that something eventually will come to a head with Beal, who will make $34.5 million next season with a $37.3 million player option for 2022-23.

After all, Beal told J.J. Redick’s podcast in November that “I still want to win and the organization has to show me we want to win.” And Beal, 27, made clear to me 13 months ago that he holds the Heat in high regard.

And that’s why the Heat, which has coveted Beal for years, must come to an internal conclusion about key issues involving three players who will almost assuredly be broached if the Heat and Wizards eventually engage in Beal trade talks.

Assessing those questions, with Beal standing first in the NBA in scoring at 34.4 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting after averaging 30.5 points per game last season:

▪ Can Tyler Herro become every bit as good as Phoenix Suns guard and 2020 All-Star Devin Booker, as some Heat people believe he can?

This much is clear: Herro very likely would need to be included in any offer for Beal.

The question is whether Herro is impressive enough in the coming months to make an offer built around Herro as appealing to Washington as competing offers that include a treasure trove of draft picks — a deal that Miami cannot offer because of lack of available draft inventory.

Herro, in 10 games (all starts), is averaging 17.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists while shooting 46.9 percent from the field and 30.2 percent on threes.

Just 21, Herro should only continue to improve. The question is what’s the ceiling. Booker? Beal? Or something less?

If Herro boosts his three-point percentage (which seems likely) and goes on an extended stretch similar to his production in his three games before the injury (31, 34, 17 points and a combined 23 rebounds), then an offer built around Herro and some of the Heat’s other young assets could pique Washington’s interest, despite Miami not having a first-round pick to offer in any of the next four drafts.

But if Herro picks up where he left off before the neck injury that has sidelined him for six games, it also could make the Heat reluctant to pursue a deal if Washington demands both Duncan Robinson and Precious Achiuwa, along with Herro, cap-filling contracts and a 2025 first-rounder (which would become available if Miami and OKC agree to unlock protections on the 2023 first-rounder due the Thunder).

▪ Is the Heat comfortable paying Duncan Robinson big money this summer?

Two NBA officials conveyed that they believe Robinson will get a deal this summer that will pay him anywhere between $15 million and $20 million annually.

Because he is elite at a skill that’s an enormous commodity (shooting) and has all the intangibles that the Heat values in players, the sense is Miami would be willing to pay the going rate for elite shooters when he becomes a restricted free agent this summer. His Heat cap hit will be only $4.7 million in 2021-22 regardless of his salary.

But if there’s any hesitation with paying Robinson that kind of money because of potential luxury tax ramifications — on top of max contracts to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and the potential acquisition of another All-Star - that would be something Miami should come to a firm conclusion about before making an offer for Beal. (And again, there’s no indication Washington is considering moving Beal yet.)

▪ Is Erik Spoelstra convinced that he will feel comfortable playing Adebayo and Achiuwa together for extended minutes — every game — by the end of this season or next season?

At the moment, he’s not, for reasons explained here by my colleague Anthony Chiang. The short version: Spoelstra is trying to keep things simple for Achiuwa during the early stages of his rookie season. And having both on the floor at the same time could make for a challenging offensive fit despite Adebayo’s improved midrange jumper.

There’s every reason to believe that the two can play — and will play — together in time. This isn’t another Bam/Hassan Whiteside mismatched pairing for multiple reasons: Adebayo’s range continues to expand; Achiuwa can defend stretch-fours and wings far more effectively than Whiteside can; and Achiuwa — who made 13 of 40 three-pointers in his one year at Memphis — “has the upside to be a 36 to 38 percent spot-up three-point shooter in the NBA,” Memphis assistant coach Cody Toppert told me in November.

But here’s the important point: If Spoelstra doesn’t believe the Achiuwa/Adebayo frontcourt tandem would work as a starting duo by late this season or early next season, he needs to tell Pat Riley.

Spoelstra and Riley have the ideal coach/executive relationship, with genuine respect on both sides. Spoelstra is deferential to Riley publicly and Riley doesn’t meddle on coaching decisions. They seem to think alike about a lot of things.

But if there’s one area where they might disagree at times (and no coach and his boss agree on everything), it’s on the use of two bigs (in tandem) who don’t have three-point games. That’s the obvious conclusion based not only on Spoelstra’s lineup decisions (going back to his aversion for playing Whiteside and Adebayo together), but Riley’s comments in news conferences over the years.

In his April 2019 press conference — about 2 1/2 months before Whiteside was traded — Riley said it was incumbent upon Spoelstra to figure out how to play Whiteside and Adebayo together at times.

“I know Erik and I know he’s going to look into every possibility because he knows both are athletic, great rim protectors, both great lob guys and somehow he has to figure out how that can become an effective tandem,” Riley said that day. “I can give him some help on that because I have a background in coaching….

“There are a dozen players like Hassan, where all of a sudden, people said he can’t play in a run and gun three-point game, switching game. I don’t believe it. I am sure when Erik and I sit down it’s cultivating something in the type of game he’s good at coaching. You can go to a real power lineup [at times]. The Rockets with [Clint] Capela and [Kenneth] Faried don’t have a problem, but give me [James] Harden and [Chris] Paul.”

With regard to playing Adebayo and Achiuwa together, Riley said in November:

“I think you can play both those guys [Adebayo and Achiuwa] together. Not for long periods of time. Only time with tell. Surround them with great playmakers and shooters. I’ll leave that up to Spo. He’s going to be a very exciting player just like Bam.”

So here’s the issue: If Spoelstra believes an Adebayo/Achiuwa pairing isn’t going to be a 15-to-30 minute-every-game-thing by next season, then including him in a Beal proposal could be justified. Achiuwa is an asset as a 15-minute backup to Adebayo but far more valuable if Miami views him as a longterm starter.

Ultimately, any Heat proposal likely would need to include Herro, the expiring contracts of Kelly Olynyk and Andre Iguodala and either Robinson or Achiuwa (or both) and possibly Heat first-rounders in 2025 and/or 2027 (if OKC and Miami agree to unlock 2023).

Keep in mind that Meyers Leonard and Goran Dragic can nix any trade this season. Avery Bradley and Maurice Harkless become trade eligible on Feb. 6.

Here’s the bottom line: Miami needs to get a handle on the aforementioned three questions before determining exactly what permutation to offer. And unless Beal asks for a trade in the next few weeks, the Heat will have plenty of time to figure all of that out.