Three reasons why the Milwaukee Bucks will win the NBA title...and three why they won't

For the first time since 2019, the Milwaukee Bucks coaches and players had a full offseason and training camp to rest, recover, implement new wrinkles on offense and defense and just generally prepare for what they hope is another long march to the NBA Finals. And, they return a roster full of veterans well versed in carrying championship expectations.

Which is perhaps why the league’s general managers voted the Bucks as the team they feel will win the title this season. But let’s go a little deeper and examine three reasons why the league’s top personnel people are right in believing the Bucks will win their second championship in three seasons…and three reasons why they might fall short.

Three reasons the Bucks will win the championship

Continuity is king

There have been some shakeups in head coach Mike Budenholzer’s coaching staff but the team from the front office to the end of the bench is largely intact from not just one year ago, but from the title-winning season. Eight players were on the championship squad from 2020-21 while George Hill, Wesley Matthews, Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter and Serge Ibaka are all in at least their second season with the team. It’s a veteran group that has won a lot of games and will not be surprised by anything that happens in the regular season or playoffs. There is something to be said for having few question marks and little drama – and the Bucks are counting on continuity to mean a heck of a lot this season.

More closely defending threes pays off

For years the Bucks would shrug off an opponent hitting a record number of three-pointers against them in the regular season – or even a playoff game or two – because their defensive mindset of protecting the rim was a) historically good and b) led to many, many victories. But last season the defense drifted toward the middle of the pack and teams kept making threes – and finally Boston shot them out of the playoffs. This year, the Bucks are emphasizing limiting the number of three attempts and contesting the ones that do go up more often. It’s a change and doing so will likely result in some growing pains, but should they be able to make it happen often enough it could lead to another parade.

The half-court offense is more productive

Over the course of a regular season the Bucks rarely have a hard time scoring points. In Budenholzer’s four seasons the team has led the league in scoring three times and finished third last year. Their offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) has been no worse than eighth. But in the playoffs, when things slow down and defenses get better, the Bucks have run into problems generating consistent offense. To combat that, the team signed veteran Joe Ingles to provide three-point shooting and another solid pick-and-roll player.

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Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton and Jevon Carter were more active off the dribble in the preseason, Wesley Matthews has vowed to get back to the offensive player he was in Portland. George Hill is playing with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, the offense is predicated around the Big Three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday but if the other players can bring a bit more to the table the Bucks will be hard to stop.

Three reasons why the Bucks will not win the title

One of the Big Three is missing

If the Bucks had never won an NBA title, Khris Middleton’s playoff knee injury may go down as one of Milwaukee sports’ greatest “what if.” Even without their all-star, the Bucks had two closeout games against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals and there are many who feel if Middleton was healthy the Bucks would have, at least, been in position to defend their title. But, that was not to be. And that is the risk for all teams with legitimate title chances – the stars must be healthy.

The Bucks were able to handle Antetokounmpo missing the final two games of the 2020-21 conference finals because they were just the better team than Atlanta, but it helped that Trae Young was hurt, too. It’s not disrespectful to say the Bucks would have a harder time winning the championship if any of Antetokounmpo, Middleton or Holiday are out – it’s just true.

They’ve plateaued

Of the team’s mantras, “Get better every day” is the one used most frequently. But at some point the human body will not function “better” than it did in the past. Time is always an adversary. On opening night, six potential playoff rotation players will be at least 31 years old, five of which have at least 10 years of experience.

On the flip side, Pat Connaughton (29 years old), Giannis Antetokounmpo (27), Bobby Portis (27), Jevon Carter (27) and Grayson Allen (27) all have the potential to continue to improve. But as a collective, there is a chance that in a seven-game series down the line, the Bucks just can’t rise to a new level.

They can’t make a difference-making move

The Bucks will open the season with 15 guaranteed contracts, a departure from years past. Part of it likely has to do with the fact Middleton (left wrist) and Ingles (left knee) are rehabbing offseason surgeries. It also means that the Bucks are about $26 million into the luxury tax – which converts to about an $85 million bill to the league.

Since Antetokounmpo signed his extension it was clear the team was going to go into the tax, and that is the cost of doing championship-level business. But as the season wears on, and without an open roster spot, will there be the flexibility both in minutes and money to make a necessary move (or moves) to get the team over the top? General manager Jon Horst is always on the lookout for improvement and with a loaded draft class perhaps enticing more teams to offload quality veterans, perhaps it will be easier to make a difference-making move than it appears today. But it always takes two (or three or four) to tango around the trade deadline and it’s not always a given that right player is available.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Why Milwaukee Bucks could win NBA title, and why they could fall short