Another week into the National Football League lottery, five selections against the point spread. Use em, fade em, discuss em, ignore em, the choice is yours. Share your favorite Week 6 picks with me on Twitter: @scott_pianowski.
Titans +6 vs. Bills
A call for emotional handicapping, taking the Titans at home against a loaded team that just played the most important game on its schedule. Tennessee can slow and shorten the game with a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, and it will be difficult for the Bills to hit the high end of their range for another week. The NFL doesn’t work like that.
Cowboys -3.5 at Patriots
Dallas has a complete offense and a disruptive defense; this is a team that could win the NFC. New England has a plus defense and a brilliant head coach, but there’s no explosive plays in the Patriots offense. My numbers say the Cowboys should be favored by at least six.
Chargers +2.5 at Ravens
The best game on the Week 6 schedule. Lamar Jackson’s growth as a passer has been amazing, and Marquise Brown has developed into a bonafide star. But their heroics are covering leaks elsewhere on the Baltimore roster, and let’s be fair, three of the Ravens wins have all sorts of luck dripping off them (Kansas City, Detroit, Indianapolis). I’ll take the better team with more rest, happy to get some points too.
Panthers +2 vs. Vikings
The line indicates Minnesota would be somewhere from 4-5 points favored on a neutral field, which I don’t completely understand. Carolina’s loss at Dallas is an excused defeat, and the Panthers outplayed the Eagles for about three quarters before a horrible endgame last week. If Sam Darnold doesn’t have another turnover outbreak, Carolina should take care of business at home.
Lions +3.5 vs. Bengals
Detroit’s roster is a long way from respectability, but the Lions play hard for Dan Campbell and have shown up every week. Cincinnati’s offense has some fun names, but it’s still just average in DVOA — an ordinary group. Granted, everyone throws the ball against Detroit’s leaky secondary, but the Bengals haven’t earned the right to spot this kind of number on the road, no matter the opponent.