Thunder mailbag: Can OKC make the NBA play-in tournament next season in loaded West?

It’s time for another Thunder mailbag.

This week we covered the possibility of OKC making a push for the play-in tournament among many other topics.

Thanks to all who submitted questions. Email me at jmussatto@oklahoman.com for your question to be featured in the Thunder mailbag next week.

Let’s get to it.

@lukemcconnell1: What are realistic expectations for the Thunder this year? Based on the winning pace of the past two years when the team is completely healthy, competing for a play-in spot if everyone remains healthy seems reasonable, but plenty disagree with that notion.

@grayson_hill: Is the play-in a real possibility this season if they go for it?

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Let’s tackle these together.

The Thunder’s over/under for wins is 24.5, according to FanDuel. Only the Rockets (23.5), Spurs (22.5) and Pacers (22.5) have a lower win total projection. I’ll take the over on the Pacers, by the way.

I’d also bet the over on the Thunder. My early, early, early guess would be something like 30-52, which is a six-game improvement from last season, but not enough to make the play-in tournament. The Kings finished 30-52 last season, four games behind the Spurs (34-48) for the final play-in spot in the West.

I don’t see the Thunder winning 34 games even if the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort play close to a full season. Also, the West this season is going to be much better than the West last season. For context, look at what it took to finish 10th in the East. The Hornets grabbed the final play-in spot at 43-39.

Let’s do a quick runthrough of the West teams that will almost certainly finish with a better record than the Thunder: Warriors, Suns, Clippers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Mavericks. I think we can agree on those.

I’d also pencil the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Kings and Lakers ahead of the Thunder. That’s already 11 spots! The Thunder, Jazz (assuming a Donovan Mitchell trade), Spurs and Rockets are on the outside looking in.

Is that the way it will finish? Of course not. Injuries happen. Trades occur. Young players emerge. The Thunder could easily finish ahead of one of those teams slotted ahead of it, but finishing inside the top-10 isn’t likely.

If ownership was pressuring Sam Presti to fight for the play-in, then sure, maybe that could be realistic given the organization’s competence and the team’s competitiveness. It’s just not the team’s goal.

There are arguments for and against wanting the Thunder to make the play-in tournament. The anti-play-in stance would be that OKC can pick in the lottery once again and add to its young core.

On the other hand, the best part about OKC making the play-in is that it would mean someone like Gilgeous-Alexander or Giddey elevated their games, or that Chet Holmgren steps in and is a difference maker from Day 1. Perhaps all of the above.

Thunder mailbag: SGA vs. Giddey, roster cuts and the mysterious Micic

@camecoT_F: Are the new staff hirings a real boost for the organization?

Bringing in a renowned shooting specialist like Chip Engelland certainly can’t hurt.

The Thunder has ranked 29th and 30th in 3-point shooting over the last two seasons. We all know that Giddey’s jump shot needs work, but Engelland could also give a boost to someone like SGA, Dort, Ousmane Dieng, etc.

On an NBA staff, each assistant coach usually works with the same handful of players throughout the season. It’ll be interesting to see which players Engelland primarily works with.

While Engelland will be on the bench, new hire Vince Rozman will work behind the scenes as the Thunder’s vice president of identification and intelligence. Rozman was hired away from Philadelphia, where he started as an intern and spent the last 15 seasons.

As far as the front office, Presti typically promotes from within. It says something that he went out and got Rozman.

@khanhnguyen87: Who do you think will be cut before the season starts?

My best guess is Ty Jerome, Vit Krejci and Derrick Favors, but I don’t know.

As I mentioned last week, Favors isn’t an automatic cut like most think he is.

@bparker2337: Who will be the most intriguing player heading into the trade deadline this year?

Strictly talking Thunder, I’ll say Darius Bazley. That is, if he’s still on the team at the trade deadline.

He’s entering the last year of his rookie deal and I’m not sure how motivated the Thunder is to extend him.

Carlson: Like Thunder, Sixers are planning for a new arena. OKC will do it differently.

@tulsafbfilms: What will the starting five and bench be looking like? And who will be in and out of the rotation for the season?

I’ll keep this one short, because we’ll have a full starting five and depth chart projection coming out in a few days.

Projected starters: Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, Dort, Robinson-Earl, Holmgren.

I’ll save the bench rotation for later.

@ AaronLambert137: Will Chet begin the season starting at the five or the four and if he starts at the four who would you put with him in the starting lineup to start at the five?

I think he’ll primarily start at the five defensively. Rim protection is his best attribute, so I’d be wary of negating that by moving him away from the basket. I don’t think his lack of strength will be a nightly issue, but I’d understand if Mark Daigneault wants to play a bigger-bodied five in certain matchups.

I think Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will start alongside Holmgren either way. JRE flipped between the four and the five last season.

Tramel: Clay Bennett, OKC have talked new Thunder arena for 15 years

@hobbitofmars: Will Giddey officially be the one, his natural spot, and Shai move to the two?

Not officially. Daigneault isn’t going to sit down on media day and tell us that Josh Giddey is the point guard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the shooting guard. That’s not the way the NBA works anymore, and it’s certainly not how the Thunder wants to play.

Offensive positions are fluid.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey are both natural point guards who prefer to operate with the ball in their hands. Both will have plenty of chances to create individually, but a big thing to watch this season is how they grow together.

Also, no matter who initiates the offense, the ball is going to find itself back in Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands more often than not. Giddey creating for Gilgeous-Alexander is a better bet than Gilgeous-Alexander creating for Giddey.

@CTabatabaie: Best hair on the team?

Kenny Hustle. Not everyone can pull off the shag.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Can OKC Thunder, Chet Holmgren make a push for NBA play-in tournament?