Will the Thunder make NBA Playoffs? Here's a look at OKC's post All-Star break schedule

The Thunder will begin its post NBA All-Star break schedule with a Thursday/Friday back-to-back at Utah and Phoenix.

Fitting places for the Thunder to resume play, because of OKC’s 25 remaining games, four are against the Jazz, and four are against the Suns. That’s right, a third of the Thunder’s remaining games will come against one of those two teams.

“When you play a team and then you don’t see them for a month, it kind of goes out the window, and that’s not the case when you’re in this tight of a space,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said Wednesday before the team flew to Salt Lake City.

Thunder guard Josh Giddey, who was just in Salt Lake City for All-Star weekend, was asked if he’s looking forward to returning to the snow-capped locale.

“Not really,” Giddey said, maybe half joking. “I’ve had enough of that city. Nah, it’s a great city, I had a great time there, I’m looking forward to hopefully getting a win there.”

The Thunder (28-29) enters this final stretch of the schedule in 10th place in the West — a half-game ahead of the Jazz and a half-game behind the Warriors.

The Thunder is not only in the play-in mix (seeds No. 7-10), but OKC is also just a game and a half behind Dallas for sixth in the West. In other words, the Thunder is closer to the Mavericks than the Lakers (27-32) are to the Thunder.

Here’s a breakdown of the Thunder’s remaining games and how the schedule might affect the postseason picture.

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Thunder strength of schedule

The Thunder has the fifth-easiest schedule based on the combined winning percentage of its remaining opponents, as calculated by tankathon.com.

OKC’s remaining opponents have a .482 combined winning percentage. Philadelphia has the hardest remaining schedule. The Sixers’ opponents have a .540 combined winning percentage.

The Thunder’s schedule, with 12 home games and 13 road games, sets up nicely for a postseason push.

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Predicting Thunder’s record

The Suns will be a juggernaut whenever Kevin Durant returns (maybe Friday, maybe not), but the Jazz is slipping. Say the Thunder breaks even, going 4-4 in those eight games — maybe 3-1 against the Jazz and 1-3 against the Suns.

That leaves 17 games. Let’s group them from likely wins to toss-ups to likely losses, knowing full well the NBA is impossible to predict.

Likely wins

March 1 vs. Lakers

March 12 at Spurs

March 14 vs. Nets

March 28 vs. Hornets

March 29 vs. Pistons

Toss-ups

Feb. 26 vs. Kings

Feb. 28 vs. Kings

March 7 vs. Warriors

March 16 at Raptors

March 24 at Lakers

March 26 at Trail Blazers

March 31 at Pacers

April 9 vs. Grizzlies

Likely losses

March 11 at Pelicans

March 21 at Clippers

March 23 at Clippers

April 4 at Warriors

Counting the Suns and Jazz games, five likely wins and four likely losses puts OKC at 9-8. In the eight toss-up games, let's say the Thunder goes 4-4, bringing its post All-Star record to 13-12.

OKC would finish the season at 41-41. That’ll probably be good enough to earn a play-in spot.

Based on the Thunder’s recent play, second in net rating behind only the Nuggets in the new year, that’s a conservative projection.

Basketball Reference predicts a 14-11 finish for the Thunder. FiveThirtyEight’s model is strangely down on the Thunder, predicting a 10-15 finish.

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Assessing Thunder’s place in West

The West has been weird this year. Weirdly unpredictable and weirdly the lesser conference to the East.

The top five teams — Nuggets, Grizzlies, Kings, Clippers and Suns — can safely be slotted ahead of the Thunder. And the bottom two teams, the Spurs and Rockets, are all in on French sensation Victor Wembanyama.

So that leaves seven teams the Thunder is competing with for five postseason spots: Seeds six to 10.

Here’s how they rank by record.

1. Mavericks, 31-29: The Mavs are clinging to that all-important No. 6 seed, which gets you out of the play-in. Dallas, because it has Luka Doncic and the easiest remaining schedule, will likely finish ahead of OKC. But with Kyrie Irving in town, don’t discount the inevitable threat of chaos.

2. Pelicans, 30-29: The Pels have the third-easiest schedule, which they’re going to need with Zion Williamson out for who knows how long. New Orleans is 3-0 against OKC. With or without Williamson, the Thunder would be wise to avoid the Pelicans in the play-in.

3. Timberwolves, 31-30: Will Minnesota be better or worse with Karl-Anthony Towns back? Sounds like a stupid question, but the Timberwolves started to find a rhythm without Towns. Anthony Edwards has overtaken Towns as the face of the franchise.

4. Warriors, 29-29: Don’t discount the defending champs, even with Stephen Curry’s return up in the air. With how crazy the West has been, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Warriors make the conference finals or miss the play-in/playoffs entirely.

5. Thunder, 28-29: As long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stays healthy (more on that below), the Thunder should remain steady. The underlying numbers support OKC’s breakout.

6. Jazz, 29-31: The Thunder-Jazz games are going to be massively important, starting Thursday night in Salt Lake City. OKC (13-8) and Utah (10-11) have been heading in opposite directions since the calendar flipped, and the Jazz was further weakened after the trade deadline.

7. Trail Blazers, 28-30: Portland is in danger of spoiling what might be Damian Lillard’s best season.

8. Lakers, 27-32: Given the LeBron James injury concerns, the perpetual Anthony Davis injury risks and general organizational dysfunction, how can you believe in the Lakers?

If this order sticks, the Thunder will make the play-in as the 10th seed. But if things change, is it more likely the Thunder passes one or multiple teams ahead of it, like the Timberwolves and Pelicans, or is it more likely one of the Jazz, Blazers or Lakers passes the Thunder? The former seems like a much safer bet.

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Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander keep this up?

Sure he can, we just haven’t seen it before.

SGA played 35 games in the 2020-21 season before suffering a season-ending plantar fascia tear.

He played 56 games last season before being shut down with an ankle injury.

Right now he’s on pace to play in 78 games, which he hasn’t done since his rookie season in 2018-19, when Gilgeous-Alexander played all 82 for the Clippers. (He also played 70 of 72 games in the shortened 2019-20 season).

SGA is averaging a career-high 35.4 minutes per game, and he’s missed just four games.

What does this have to do with the schedule? OKC is 3-1 in his absence, but don’t put much stock into that. The Thunder will go how SGA goes, and the Thunder needs more of the same out of SGA to finish top-10 in the West.

And if that happens, not only will Gilgeous-Alexander be back in the postseason, he’ll also be a shoe-in for All-NBA.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder: Breaking down post All-Star break schedule