Thursday Evening Pinpoint Forecast

Chief meteorologist Paul Heggen has the (disappointingly) dry forecast. (4-8-21)

Video Transcript

- --and Paul Heggen. And Paul, more than what Kenny Choi was talking about, this drought, I mean, the whole Bay Area, the whole state, we're all going to feel it.

PAUL HEGGEN: Right. And the entire Bay Area is still classified as being in drought conditions right now. We just got a new update from the US Drought Monitor today. And it's very little change from their last update a week ago.

Moderate drought conditions that include the southern half basically of the Bay Area and along the coast as well. So San Francisco and San Jose are included in that. Severe drought conditions for the Tri-valley from Livermore, Concord, and then up into parts of the North Bay, including Santa Rosa.

Extreme drought in red. And there's actually one category beyond that called exceptional drought. Fortunately, we don't see that on the map, at least not at this point. But the extreme drought includes Napa and Fairfield. And this is not a situation that's going to improve with one rain event.

We need a normal season of rainfall, really, to attenuate these drought conditions. And we haven't seen that for a couple of years. So we have been in drought conditions for well over 52 weeks at this point.

This is a map from Climate Central with whom we partner to show you the impacts of our changing climate. And this red shaded area-- that includes the entire Bay Area-- shows the spots that have more than 52 consecutive weeks of drought conditions, regardless of what category you're in. And you can see how much of the Western US is in this orange and red, indicating nearly a year or more than that of drought conditions. They're focusing just on California.

The droughts are a cyclical thing. We don't stay in drought conditions permanently, but the droughts over the past 120 years. And we have enough data to look back that far show the droughts becoming more severe and more frequent.

So while there are ups and downs, there's always some climate variability. There has been for the entire 4.6 billion-year history of the planet. Climate change is the heavy foot on the accelerator, pushing it in one direction faster and faster.

So the droughts become more frequent. and they become deeper. We're not quite out of the time of year when we can get some rain chances. We don't have any name the seven-day forecast, but we're going to keep looking for them through at least the middle of May. Maybe we can get a little bit of shower activity around here.

Today? Well, we just started off with that low cloud cover and fog. But it backed up quickly, and the sun came out-- turned into a really nice afternoon. Still on the cool side in the city-- only 56 degrees. 60 degrees right now in Oakland with temperatures farther inland in the mid to upper 60s and even low 70s.

It's exactly 70 in Santa Rosa and 72 degrees right now in Concord. Because the fog backed up a bit more quickly, temperatures did warm up only 2 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago around the Bay but about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday farther inland.

Temperatures tomorrow aren't going to be too much different than what we saw today. The fog is going to try to return as we head through tonight. Futurecast shows that returning along the coast, at least, as we head into early tomorrow morning. And some of that is going to spill in around the Bay but probably not too far into the inland valleys.

So temperatures should reach up to around 70 degrees once again farther inland. Fog's going to be tough to shake along the coast. But at least some sunshine is going to peak through by tomorrow afternoon. And I think we are going to see more sunshine across the board as we head into the weekend, which means more of a warm-up in store as we head into the weekend.

Temperatures tonight mostly dropping down to the mid to upper 40s. Mid-40s inland with upper 40s around the Bay and along the coast. The chilliest spots in the valleys of the North Bay briefly getting down to around 40 degrees. And a wide range in temperatures tomorrow. A 20-degree swing between the cool spots along the coast and the warm locations farther inland.

Mid-50s for the coast, upper 50s and low to mid-60s around the Bay, maybe a degree or two cooler than today but pretty close and the temperatures inland into the mid to upper 60s and low 70s. The warmest spots will be east of the Diablo range.

Temperatures warm up for everybody as we head into the weekend. Mid to upper 70s inland Saturday and Sunday. Low to mid 60s around the Bay, not too much change along the coast other than just a little bit more sunshine. You might be a couple degrees warmer. Once temperatures warm up, we're going to keep the warm air in place as we head through next week.