Tibor Nagy: Who wants what out of the Gaza War
Right now it’s impossible to get the horrific pictures out of our minds. Footage of Israeli civilians of all ages butchered in cold blood by leering terrorists who then drag the living back to Gaza as terrified hostages, interspersed with scenes of massive explosions and the resultant destruction with desperate Palestinians digging out survivors and grieving over dead family members, crushed or blown to smithereens. In the midst of such hellscapes it’s easy to overlook that the conflict has global ramifications with those involved, the region, and major powers pursuing diametrically opposite goals and outcomes. So, following is a very broad overview of who wants what out of the current conflict, and beyond.
Hamas is a terrorist organization and Iranian proxy whose charter calls for the destruction of Israel and its replacement with an Islamic Palestinian state. As with other extremists, civilian deaths – whether Jewish or Muslim - matter nothing to them. Beyond advancing its main goal of wiping Israel off the map, Hamas likely undertook the October 7 savagery to evoke an Israeli response which would turn global sympathies away from Israel and toward Palestinians and stop or reverse Israels’ recent successes in opening relations with Arab nations through the Abraham Accords. As with previous Gaza conflicts, Hamas plans to survive to fight another day.
Israel’s goals are both immediate and longer term. As quickly as possible, Israel seeks to recover its hostages while at the same time destroying Hamas as an organization, recognizing that time is not on its side. Every day the conflict goes on, the world’s sympathies tilt more and more towards the Palestinians. In addition, Prime Minister Netanyahu no doubt would like to survive politically – which seems less and less likely.
The US is in a very tough spot. It’s in our national DNA to support Israel, which we will do. But we also have to free US hostages, persuade Israel to minimize civilian casualties, try and prevent the conflict from spreading, and do everything possible to keep global public opinion from turning ever more hostile towards America. An incredibly difficult set of objectives.
The Egyptian government detests Hamas as much as Israel does, but it must tread carefully, given its peoples’ sympathies towards Palestinians. Under no circumstances will Egypt allow large numbers of Gazans to seek refuge in Egypt – since Egypt already has its own extremist problem in the Sinai, which borders Gaza. Nor will Egypt accept taking charge of Gaza once the conflict ends.
The Palestinians in the West Bank, under the partial authority of the ossified, corrupt Palestinian Authority (PA) have a great deal of sympathy for their co-nationals in Gaza. They are also greatly frustrated and angry by the Netanyahu government’s support for expanding Israeli settlements as well as settler belligerence. The longer the Gaza conflict goes on, the greater the likelihood of the West Bank also erupting in more organized violence.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant group, also under Iran’s tutelage, shares Hamas’ goal of destroying the Jewish state and fought a month-long war with Israel in 2006. But Hezbollah is constrained by Lebanon’s internal politics. The country is a total economic and political disaster, and while Hezbollah is the strongest armed force in Lebanon, it cannot totally alienate the Lebanese state and people by unleashing a war which would further devastate that country. In addition, US warships in the Eastern Mediterranean present a formidable deterrent. But if the Gaza conflict drags on and Palestinian casualties mount Hezbollah may feel forced to mount an all-out attack.
Iran stands to benefit most from the conflict. Its goals are straightforward: hurt Israel as much as possible; dimmish US influence around the world – most especially in Islamic countries; and reverse the Abraham Accords which greatly expanded Israel’s ties with the Arab world.
Russia and China also stand to benefit from the current conflict. Each wants to see America’s influence lessened and world opinion turned against us, and their own influence grow as part of a larger campaign to build a new global order. As for helping end the conflict, neither will exert much energy beyond high-minded statements and meaningless offers to serve as good-faith mediators.
Arab governments, like Egypt, detest Hamas privately but must support them publicly. While they are authoritarian states, the leaders still must respect their peoples’ passions, and the “Arab Street” passionately supports the Palestinian cause. An exception is Quatar which has relations with all Arab states and Iran, hosts some of Hamas’ leadership, and maintains unofficial contacts with Israel. Quatar has served as a mediator in several conflicts and is engaged in current negotiations to free hostages.
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop” is a famous maxim which also applies to the current Gaza war. (Gaza, BTW, is almost exactly the size of Lubbock.) No one knows when or how, but there are several certainties regarding when the conflict ends. Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive as an organization, much less remain in control of Gaza – although its ideology will live on until there is an overall resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian dilemma. Neither can Israel take charge of Gaza when the war ends – that would be the biggest of poison pills. Ditto for Egypt as noted above. The PA would be a viable alternative, if they had any competence or trust from Palestinians; they have neither. It’s also unlikely that a single Arab state, or a coalition, would accept responsibility for Gaza. And hopefully this will be one global mission the US also stays away from. So, is there a solution to finding some authority to take charge of Gaza until an eventual Israeli-Palestinian agreement finally brings peace to the region, if ever such an event will happen? Here is one out-of-the box suggestion. Turkish President Erdogan has put himself forth as the champion of Moslems and has threatened to send the Turkish army against Israel in the current conflict. How about giving Türkiye a United Nations mandate to govern Gaza when the conflict ends? After all, the region was under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire for centuries, so bringing them back may be the least awful plan for the day after!
Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Tibor Nagy column who wants what out of the Israel Gaza War
