Tight elections feel normal in Wisconsin. Here is what makes this one so unusual
If the contests for governor and U.S. Senate are truly as tight as a new Marquette poll suggests, then we are looking at a remarkably rare election scenario in Wisconsin.
Despite this state’s recent history of presidential cliffhangers, razor-thin elections for governor are extremely unusual. In the past 50 years, only one was decided by less than 3 points. (It was the last one, in 2018).
They are also extremely rare for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. In the past 40 years, only one has been decided by less than 3 points (1998). In the past 100 years, only two have.
To have both offices on the same ballot decided by less than 3 points — well, that has never, ever happened in Wisconsin since U.S. senators were first elected by popular vote in 1914.
It may turn out, of course, that one or both races are not quite as competitive as they look in Marquette’s final pre-election survey, taken Oct. 24 through Nov. 1.
In the race for Senate, GOP incumbent Ron Johnson leads Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by two points, 50% to 48%, according to the poll released Wednesday.
In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican challenger Tim Michels are tied at 48%.
These numbers are similar to those in a Fox News poll released a day earlier.
When I look at this polling, I see at least two plausible ways to handicap these massively consequential election contests in Wisconsin.
One is to keep in mind that polling in the Donald Trump era has sometimes understated GOP support because certain kinds of Republican voters have been less likely to respond to polls than other voters. This happened both in 2016 and in 2020 in Wisconsin, when Trump did several points better in the presidential election than he did in the final surveys by Marquette. Many other pollsters were further off in Wisconsin, which saw bigger polling “misses” than other battlegrounds.
Also keep in mind the powerful “fundamentals” of midterm elections, which tell us that the party in the White House typically loses ground, especially when the sitting president has a negative job rating and voters are pessimistic or unhappy over the economy. This is a big reason why Republicans are considered likely to win back the U.S. House this year and have a very real chance to take back a 50/50 Senate.
If you believe that the polls may be understating GOP support and if you believe the 2022 election will end up looking like a “typical” midterm, then you’d expect Republicans to win both these races in closely divided Wisconsin — and by more than a mere fraction.
The other plausible way to interpret the Marquette poll is that one or both contests are truly up in the air and could go either way. The Marquette poll has a very good record in midterms. While Marquette’s final pre-election survey did “underrate” GOP support in the last two presidential contests with Trump on the ballot, it closely captured the results in the 2018 midterm for both governor and US Senate.
Consider also Wisconsin’s recent election history. The 2020 race for president was decided by less than a point. The 2018 race for governor was decided by 1.1 points. The 2016 race for president was decided by less than a point. Going back a little further, the 2000 and 2004 contests for president were decided by less than a point.
But here the history gets a little complicated. Notice that four of the five races above were for president. Those presidential tossups have made ultra-close elections feel like the norm in Wisconsin.
But they are a lot more unusual in races for governor and U.S. Senate in this state than you might think.
The spread in Wisconsin governor races over a half-century
Here are the margins for governor going back more than 50 years:
2018: 1.1 points
2014: 5.7 points
2012 recall: 6.8 points
2010: 5.8 points
2006: 7.4 points
2002: 3.8 points
1998: 21 points
1994: 36 points
1990: 16 points
1986: 6.5 points
1982: 15 points
1978: 9 points
1974: 11 points
1970: 9 points
These contests have tightened up since the blow-out victories of GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson in the 1990s. Yet we’ve only had two races decided by under 5 points in half a century.
Senate race margins in history
Here are the margins for U.S. Senate elections in Wisconsin over the same time span.
2018: 11 points
2016: 3.4 points
2012: 5.5 points
2010: 4.8 points
2006: 38 points
2004: 11 points
2000: 25 points
1998: 2.2 points
1994: 18 points
1992: 6.6 points
1988: 4.5 points
1986: 3.5 points
1982: 30 points
1980: 1.85 points
1976: 45 points
1974: 26 points
1970: 42 points
This list includes some landslide victories by Democrats Bill Proxmire and Gaylord Nelson in the 1970s and 1980s and by Democrat Herb Kohl in 2000 and 2006. It also includes a lot of fairly competitive races decided by mid-single-digits.
But only two were decided by under 3 points. Those were Republican Bob Kasten’s defeat of incumbent Democrat Gaylord Nelson in 1980 and incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold’s defeat of GOP challenger Mark Neumann in 1998.
No race for governor or Senate in Wisconsin in the past 100 years has been as close as the four contests for president in 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2020. The only ones decided by under a point were in 1940 and 1962 for governor, and in 1914 for Senate. (That was the first popular election for U.S. Senate, and it was decided by 956 votes).
Why have we had so many razor-thin presidential contests in recent decades but so few for governor and Senate?
One reason is that contests for president usually involve massive spending and mobilizing on both sides, while spending in contests for Senate and governor is sometimes one-sided, especially when a strong incumbent faces a weak challenger. We have had some very dominant incumbent governors and senators in Wisconsin over the past 50 years.
Another is that we have historically seen less crossover voting (when Democratic voters support a Republican candidate and vice versa) in presidential races, which tend to drive people into their partisan corners. In an evenly divided state like Wisconsin, that produces close contests.
There is also the fact that races for governor in Wisconsin always occur in midterm cycles, which often produce swings against the party in the White House, which reduces the odds of an ultra-tight race.
But it may be that contests for governor and senator are now starting to look more like the high-turnout, ultra-polarized, super-competitive contests for president that Wisconsin has been experiencing.
More:The 6 questions the Nov. 8 election will answer about Wisconsin politics
Wisconsin is one of a dwindling number of battlegrounds, making it a national magnet for spending and organizing. As polarization has deepened, contests for governor and U.S. Senate are producing the kind of hard partisan lines we see in presidential races.
In the current Senate race, 97% of Republican voters are backing Republican incumbent Johnson for Senate and 98% of Democratic voters are backing Democrat Barnes, according to the new Marquette poll.
In the governor’s race, 95% of Democratic voters are backing Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and 97% of GOP voters are backing Republican Michels.
Voters in both parties are united behind their nominees. And there are almost equal numbers of voters in both parties. That leaves only two ways to swing an election: turnout (which side mobilizes more of its voters) and a shrinking independent vote.
These conditions tend to generate close races in close states. Polarized, partisan electorates have very little “play” in them. Election swings happen, but they are smaller than they used to be. A “big” victory in this world is winning by 4 or 5 or 6 points, like GOP Gov. Scott Walker did over the last decade. A rare “landslide” is the 11-point victory Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin won in 2018.
If the two big 2022 races are in fact something close to tossups, then in theory any combination of four outcomes could occur: a Republican sweep, a Democratic sweep, both incumbents win (Republican Johnson and Democrat Evers) or both challengers win (Democrat Barnes and Republican Michels).
Of these four, two would seem kind of improbable. A Democratic sweep in a midterm with an unpopular Democratic president and high inflation would be historically odd.
So would both incumbents losing. There have been 17 Wisconsin elections since 1914 with an incumbent governor and incumbent senator on the same ballot, counting this one. Only once have they both lost — in 1938. And in that case the same party won both elections (the Republicans).
Having an incumbent governor and incumbent senator from opposing parties both lose on the same ballot has never happened in Wisconsin, for obvious reasons. If the political tide is strong enough to defeat a sitting senator or governor from one party, it should help, not hurt, an incumbent from the other party.
Based on history and current polling, the two most probable of these four theoretical outcomes are: Republicans win both races, boosted by the advantages the out-party enjoys in a midterm election; or both incumbents win, which has happened frequently in Wisconsin, including when the incumbents are from different parties.
Whatever happens, the polling suggests it’s very possible that we’re looking at the closest pair of races for Senate and governor that Wisconsin has seen in decades — if not ever.
It’s also possible we’re looking at the new normal.
Craig Gilbert provides Wisconsin political analysis as a fellow with Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. Prior to the fellowship, Gilbert reported on politics for 35 years at the Journal Sentinel, the last 25 in its Washington Bureau. His column continues that independent reporting tradition and goes through the established Journal Sentinel editing process.
Follow him on Twitter: @Wisvoter.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin is known for tight elections, but 2022 Midterms are unusual
