Tight games, rain and maybe a dream final: Talking points ahead of the Rugby World Cup semifinals

The Rugby World Cup is down to the final four.

The semifinals take place in Paris over the next two days. It's Argentina vs. New Zealand on Friday and South Africa vs. England on Saturday.

Here's some talking points ahead of the games:

DREAM FINAL

The dream final for rugby aficionados is nigh. Only once in nine editions have the All Blacks from New Zealand and the Springboks from South Africa met in the title match. That was in 1995 on an occasion that transcended sport as Nelson Mandela, wearing a Boks jersey and cap, watched on as Joel Stransky dispatched the clinching drop goal in extra time for South Africa. Twenty-eight years later, rugby's two powerhouses are favored to meet again for the trophy, with both seeking a record fourth title. It's widely seen as the biggest rivalry in rugby.

TIGHT SEMIS

Then again, don't be surprised if the two semifinals are tight affairs. It's often how it goes in at least one of the last-four showdowns. In 2019, South Africa needed a 76th-minute penalty to squeeze past Wales 19-16. In 2015, New Zealand inched past the Boks 20-18. In 2011, France beat Wales only 9-8 despite playing most of the match with a man extra. In 2007, England eked out a 14-9 win over France in Paris ultimately because of the boot of Jonny Wilkinson. No. 2-ranked New Zealand is the big favorite against No. 7 Argentina but has lost to the Pumas twice — quite recently, too, in November 2020 and August 2022. No. 1-ranked South Africa is favored to beat No. 5 England but has lost three of their last five meetings — two of them by one point. Not since 2007 has a team scored 30 or more points in the semifinals.

RAIN

Rain, and some wind, is forecast in Paris before and during both matches and could yet be something of a leveler. Wet weather puts a premium on a good kicking game and potentially leads to teams keeping it tight and not being so expansive to reduce the scope for handling errors. All of the teams have had ample experience of a wet ball in France after the first three weeks of the tournament were gripped by unseasonably high temperatures, beside naturally dewy night games. Any rain will still tip the odds in favor of New Zealand and South Africa but the All Blacks proved last weekend against Ireland that defense can rule.

DISCIPLINE

This looked like being the Rugby World Cup of red cards, with seven dished out in the opening three weeks (by Sept. 28) — just one short of the record for a single edition of the tournament (8 in 2019). There have been none since, with players maybe adapting to the stricter regulations governing contact to the head and also benefitting from mitigation from officials on the occasions it happens. One of the most famous World Cup red cards happened in a semifinal. Wales captain Sam Warburton was sent off in the 19th minute for a tip tackle on France winger Vincent Clerc, yet the Welsh nearly pulled off a famous victory.

STATS TO KNOW

Argentina-New Zealand is only the second semifinal in Rugby World Cup history to contain teams who finished second in their pool.

England is the only unbeaten team to reach the semifinals, after winning just four of its previous 13 games leading into the World Cup.

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AP Rugby World Cup: https://apnews.com/hub/rugby