Tightening race and more attack ads in week leading up to Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Florida Democratic Gubernatorial candidates Nikki Fried and Charlie Crist are making their final push for your vote ahead of the Primary Election next Tuesday.

While Crist had held a solid lead, a UNF poll released this week showed Fried leading 47 to 43.

Fried’s campaign is already capitalizing on the new poll, calling Florida’s Agriculture Commissioner the ‘frontrunner’ in the release for a campaign stop Wednesday in Jacksonville.

The stop was part of Fried’s final statewide tour ahead of the Primary Election.

She said the new poll showed what her campaign has been seeing on the ground.

“We have been feeling momentum for the last few weeks. Everywhere where we go, people are coming up to us and cheering us on,” said Fried.

UNF political science professor Dr. Michael Binder helped facilitate the poll.

He said it’s possible the overturning of Roe v. Wade could have led to a dramatic shift in the race.

“That has a big impact in the Democratic Primary and Charlie Crist’s position is pretty nuanced. Nuance does not come across really well in a 30-second TV ad or campaign mailer,” said Binder.

Fried’s opponent, Congressman Charlie Crist, claims he isn’t deterred by the new poll.

“The UNF poll is clearly an outlier. Between public polls and our own internal polls, Nikki Fried at this stage of the race has no path to victory barring a black swan event,” said Crist’s campaign spokesperson in an emailed statement.

Most polls up to this point have shown Crist with sizable double-digit leads.

In recent weeks, however, Crist’s campaign has taken a notable shift towards the negative.

New television ads attack Fried for her association with Republican figures like Congressman Matt Gaetz and Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody.

“Negative ads from Crist might indicate that they might be seeing a tightening of the race too,” said Binder.

In response to the attacks, Fried explained she had a working relationship with Gaetz while advocating for marijuana reform.

“I am not friends with Matt Gaetz,” said Fried.

As for her donation to Moody’s 2018 campaign, she explained she and Moody attended UF together and the $1,000 contribution was not an endorsement of Moody’s politics.

“She said hey Nik, my friend! That was that. Am I disappointed with her decisions as Attorney General? You better believe it,” said Fried.

In the 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Andrew Gillum, then considered to be a longshot candidate, pulled off a surprising upset over establishment favorite Gwen Graham.

Whether the UNF poll is an indication we could be in for a similar surprise next Tuesday remains to be seen.

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