Tim Scott makes 'all in' pitch to Iowa voters. But many say they're sticking with Trump

Republican presidential candidate Tim Scott's multiday bus tour this week signaled a new campaign strategy: to step up his ground game in the Hawkeye State.

But only time will tell whether the effort will pay off with Iowa caucusgoers.

Scott, who has not qualified to appear on the Nov. 8 GOP presidential debate stage in Miami, has seen his national campaign sputter. His polling has remained in the single digits amid mounting pressure to differentiate himself from frontrunner former President Donald Trump and other candidates.

More recently, his allied super PAC recently announced it would cancel most of the remaining $40 million in fall TV ad spending it had reserved on Scott’s behalf ahead of the caucuses.

In an attempt to regain footing, Scott's team this week announced an aggressive campaign shift to Iowa with plans to double staff, establish a West Des Moines headquarters and campaign weekly in the first-in-the-nation state after the November presidential debate.

Scott's revival trip came in the form of a five-day "Good News Bus Tour," which included seven stops across the state, starting with Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks Triple MMM Tailgate fundraiser Friday. On Saturday, he held a meet-and-greet in Maquoketa and joined Sen. Chuck Grassley for more tailgating outside a University of Northern Iowa football game.

At the City Limits restaurant in Maquoketa, Scott focused heavily on the recent outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, and the need for America to support Israel. Echoing criticisms he's made since Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks against Israel, he criticized the Biden administration's response and said a funding bill proposed by the president should be rejected for including more military aid for Ukraine than for Israel.

In addition to foreign policy, attendees also had questions about the federal budget, drug prices and other domestic issues. Afterward, Maquoketa residents Jo Martin, 79, and her husband, Ray, 81, said they were impressed by Scott's talk but were still leaning toward supporting Trump in the caucus.

"How can one person do what Trump did, kept everything up and running, and as soon as someone else takes over, everything goes downhill?" Ray Martin asked.

Their only reservation about Trump was a concern about his electability.

"There's so many people who believe everything they hear against him, and don't want him to be president," Jo Martin said.

Scott, or any of the other Republicans seeking to wrest the nomination from Trump, will need to win over at least some of his supporters. But asked what it would take to shift their preference from Trump to Scott, the Martins couldn't say.

More: Sputtering nationally, Tim Scott shifts resources to go 'all in' on Iowa Caucuses

Similar sentiments were felt the following week as Scott continued his bus tour Monday night at a town hall in Marshalltown, and Tuesday with meet and greet stops in Indianola and Creston, and at a forum hosted by the American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce in Griswold.

After the Marshalltown event, several voters said they were still "up in the air" and liked what they heard from Scott — but they struggled to say what it would take to make him their top pick in the caucus.

"I think he's shown who he is as a senator. He does what he says he does," said Cindy Page, a 67-year-old Republican who drove from Cedar Falls with a friend to hear Scott speak. "I think he just needs to be who he is."

Larry Madson, calls Scott a "common sense" candidate and a person "you'd like to have sitting in your living room."

"He's not putting on a show, he's just Tim Scott, and that's what I really enjoy hearing," he said after listening to Scott speak in Griswold.

Madson, who drove nearly an hour from Harlan to see Scott, lists him among his top three picks, alongside former North Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He said in order for Scott to rise to the top is an issue of "visibility."

"In my mind, oftentimes, a lot of people vote based on what they see and what they hear and so I think the visibility is a major factor," Madson said. "So it's probably just being able to, you know, meet the public, and let people hear his message."

Tim Scott faces pressure to differentiate himself from Trump, opponents

Although Scott has been loath to talk about other Republican candidates, he's facing increasing pressure to differentiate himself from other candidates, and in particular frontrunner Trump.

According to an August Des Moines Register/NBC News Iowa Poll, Scott had a higher net favorability rating than any other candidate in the field, with 59% of likely Republican caucusgoers saying they had a favorable view of him. Another 17% said they had an unfavorable view.

That poll showed him in third place with 9% of the vote.

But a Real Clear Politics rolling average of more recent Iowa polling shows him in fifth place with 6% — behind Trump (50%), DeSantis (17%), Haley (9.5%), and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (6%).

Still, that’s better than Scott is doing nationally, where he is the first-choice candidate among just 2%.

At Monday's town hall, he was asked why voters should turn against Trump and made an unusually explicit electability argument against the former candidate.

"I don't think he can win," Scott said. "You have to be able to win in Georgia. I don't think he can win in Georgia. You have to be able to win in Pennsylvania."

The problem, Scott said, is not Trump's policies, which he supported, but how he is viewed by persuadable voters.

"We have to be able to win independents without watering down our message," he said. "We have to have a consistently conservative message and a messenger who can persuade. … Not only can I keep conservatives excited and motivated, I can attract independents. If you are a conservative in your philosophy, I want you to be a part of the team, and if you're not a conservative in philosophy, you don't want me anyways."

Creston resident Tim Haynie, who saw Scott speak for the third time on Tuesday at a Pizza Ranch in Creston, said Scott is his "favorite candidate." But in terms of electability, Haynie ranks Trump and DeSantis over Scott.

Haynie, a member of the Union County Central Committee, says he's not sure what would have to change to solidify his vote for Scott over the other two candidates, but he said his mind changes daily.

"It's tough on me because if any one of those three wins the primary, they're electable," Haynie said. "It's not a matter of electability on the national level if they're on the general election ticket."

Haynie considers himself a Trump fan, but he said if Scott starts to poll better, he could "envision" himself caucusing for Scott. Haynie said it's a matter of Scott gaining a "momentum swing," and lauded his efforts to campaign in rural Iowa.

"He's a godly man and he speaks the truth, I just love that guy," Haynie said of Scott. "I would love for him to be our primary choice, but I don't know if he can be. I'm confident Trump will be our candidate, and I'm OK with that and he's been number one for me."

Tim Scott plans to be in Iowa weekly after Nov. 8

Scott says he plans to campaign in Iowa every week until the Jan. 15 caucuses following the debate in November. According to his campaign, Scott hopes to use the shift in resources to help tap into the support of evangelical Christians, who make up a sizeable share of the Iowa caucusgoing electorate, to help close the gap.

Scott hasn't been shy about his campaign pivot.

"I believe everything starts in Iowa," he told the Marshalltown audience. "I've moved my whole operations here."

He also touched on his Iowa-first gameplan at the Pizza Ranch in Creston, attempting to flatter the roughly 20 audience members.

"The road to the White House starts here. It doesn't start anywhere else," Scott said. "The picture I have in November of 2024 is having not only won the nomination but won the presidency. In order to make that happen, you gotta do it here."

Virginia Barreda is the Des Moines city government reporter for the Register. She can be reached at vbarreda@dmreg.com. Follow her on Twitter at @vbarreda2.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Tim Scott's 'all in' strategy will win over Iowa voters is tough sell