Time to roll the dice: Jalen Carter is a risk that's well worth the reward for Seahawks

Around 5:45 p.m. on Thursday, the Seahawks are expected to make their selection with the fifth overall pick in the NFL draft.

But as you know, given general manager John Schneider’s history of trading down to acquire more picks, they might not choose their first player until later in the evening.

This should be a time that Schneider stands pat, resisting the urge to answer phone calls and simply taking the best player available, a player who can be a franchise-changer and perhaps even a future Hall of Famer.

When NFL commissioner Roger Goodell steps to the podium on a stage in Kansas City, I hope he says: “With the fifth pick in the NFL draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Jalen Carter, defensive tackle from Georgia.”

Then I want to see Carter shake the commissioner’s hand and give him a bear hug while putting on a Seahawks baseball cap.

More: Taylor among Seahawks players coming to Kitsap to watch NFL Draft on Thursday

I get it, it’s a big risk, we’ve seen all the troubling headlines from his involvement in a racing incident that resulted in the deaths of a teammate and Georgia football staffer to the report that he showed up for his own pro day nine pounds heavier than he was at the NFL combine.

We’ve also heard about his sputtering motor, which makes it sound like he’s a guy who takes plays off from time to time.

But I’m thinking that even with all the concerns, the Seahawks will take him anyway. There’s always a sliding scale of what you’re willing to deal with and what you’re not. If someone’s a generational talent -- like some think that Carter is -- then here’s what you do: You grab the damn dice, blow on them and fire them to the end of the table and take your chances.

Could the Seahawks crap out with Carter? Of course. And shouldn’t they have learned their lesson from the drafting of Malik McDowell in 2017? Another defensive lineman, McDowell flamed out without ever playing a down of football in Seattle after suffering career-ending injuries in an ATV accident.

But they also scored when they gambled on defensive end Frank Clark in the second round of the 2015 draft, picking a player who was arrested for a domestic violence incident that caused the University of Michigan to dismiss him from the team. Clark has been a consistent pass-rushing force in the NFL.

To those who say the Seahawks can’t afford to blow it with the No. 5 pick because they probably won’t ever draft that high again, I’d say this: The fifth pick has a much better than average chance of working out. But it’s not a slam dunk either -- ask the Titans how they feel about Corey Davis, the wide receiver they chose in 2017 who hasn’t amounted to much.

More: Seahawks in rare draft position holding No. 5 overall pick

Even though Bryce Young is expected to be drafted first overall by Carolina, many draft experts think that Carter is the best player available on talent alone.

Here’s what really caught my attention: defensive end Will Anderson of Alabama is projected to be drafted higher than Carter, likely No. 3 to Arizona. Dane Brugler, the senior draft guru at The Athletic, said that Anderson is the top pass rusher in this draft but might not be the top pass rusher in other drafts.

But Brugler noted that Carter would be the top player in any draft, not just the 2023 draft. That’s enough for me.

Think about the factors that point to Carter becoming a Seahawk. Pete Carroll thinks he can get a player in his system and help him thrive even if there have been issues in his past.

More than that, the middle of the Seahawks’ defensive line is the greatest need on the team. Poona Ford and Al Woods aren’t here anymore, and it’s not as if they were world beaters anyway. The Seahawks’ run defense and pass rush has been inconsistent, both bordering on spotty and more honestly, not very good at all.

Carroll is a defensive coach. It must be killing him to see his defenses giving up so many yards on the ground and explosive plays through the air. He must view Carter as a player who can play a huge role in helping turn this defense into a drive-killing unit that would give the Seahawks a legitimate shot to return to the Super Bowl.

With better play up front, it just figures to help the linebackers, allowing them to be better and make more tackles for loss than ever before. The secondary stands to benefit as well.

If Carter comes in and shows what his tape showed at Georgia, great. If he flashes on every play and buys into the Seahawks’ culture, even better.

But if Carter arrives in his worst shape ever and turns into a draft bust, I won’t fault the Seahawks for picking him because he’s a risk worth taking.

Jim Moore is a longtime Pacific Northwest sportswriter and sports radio host on 950 KJR at 10 a.m. weekdays with Jason Puckett, and writes a regular column for the Kitsap Sun. Contact Jim at jimmoorethego2guy@yahoo.com and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo. 

This article originally appeared on Kitsap Sun: Seattle Seahawks should take Jalen Carter with top NFL Draft choice