Time is running out for the Raptors to find a new identity
After a 125-103 loss in Game 2, the Raptors are facing an 0-2 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals and head coach Nick Nurse is ready to consider switching up the starting lineup ahead of Game 3 on Sunday at Scotiabank Arena.
“There could be more than one lineup change coming at us,” Nurse said on a Saturday conference call with the media. “Certain series aren’t for certain guys, but I also think we’ve had bad biorhythms a couple of times, maybe three or four times in the playoffs, and the next game our biorhythms were back in tact. I trust these guys and who they are, and believe in them, and know they’re better than they played last night.”
It would be hard to blame Nurse for not committing entirely to changing the starting lineup, not when the five-man unit has performed at a championship contending level at various stages of this postseason run, but the back-and-forth and the need to search for the optimum lineup this late in the season illustrates a larger problem against the Bucks in this series.
While Milwaukee spent the regular season solidifying their identity and becoming a top-five team in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the Raptors had to deal with what felt like a different starting lineup every game, while working around Kawhi Leonard’s load management and integrating Marc Gasol into the starting lineup after the trade deadline. Both teams ended up in the Conference Finals, but their regular season identities have so far carried over into this series.
The Bucks are entirely comfortable with who they are on both ends of the floor. Through 11 games in these playoffs, they’re 10-1 with a +168 point differential. That ranks as the third best point differential in NBA playoff history, behind only the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors and the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers. In other words, this Milwaukee Bucks team matches the profile of two of the best championship teams of the modern day era: the Warriors with Kevin Durant and the Shaq-Kobe Lakers in their prime.
Meanwhile, the Raptors’ inconsistency has continued to be their defining identity in the postseason. And even as they sit four wins away from their first NBA Finals appearance, Nurse is still figuring out exactly what the best lineup combinations are, who the starting center should be, and who he can rely on off the bench on a nightly basis.
There’s no shame in losing to this Bucks team. If they go on to win the championship, we might need to look back on their entire body of work this season and place them among the all-time great teams. Everything about their statistical profile says they belong in that pantheon. For the Raptors, though, losing this series will reveal a larger truth: the difficulty of trying to retool so many pieces on a roster in a single season, even if it meant acquiring a franchise-altering talent like Leonard. That might ultimately be the lesson we will take from this season, and it will be a tough lesson to learn — especially if Leonard leaves in free agency and this will have indeed been a one-year championship-contending window.
The Raptors still have a chance. The series is not over yet. If they can take Game 3 on Sunday, we can hold off on talking about the offseason for a few more days, and perhaps longer. Time is just running out for this Toronto team to find one more new identity that can help them shake off two disappointing losses in Milwaukee.
News and notes:
Reserve star: If there is one silver lining to take away from the first two games in Milwaukee, it would be Norman Powell’s Game 2 performance. In 25 minutes, Powell scored 14 points, made two three-pointers and was active on the defensive end. It was a surprise performance, considering the 25-year-old swingman played a combined 33 minutes in the previous four games in the playoffs. “I thought he was good defensively,” Nurse said on Saturday. “He was playing hard, up guarding, blocking people out with some physicality, some of the things that we also need. He should play a big role here going forward.”
Ups and downs: Even though they’re down 0-2, the Raptors have shown a lot of resiliency in the playoffs so far. In the first round, Toronto lost Game 1 at home (again) but bounced back to win the next four games against the Orlando Magic. In the second round, the Raptors faced a 2-1 deficit on the road and came away with a gutsy Game 4 win in Philadelphia. There’s precedent for a bounce back game, which the Raptors absolutely need on Sunday to save their season.
The central question: Milwaukee’s defense does provide opportunities for open threes, but the Raptors have not punished the Bucks so far in this series. “Your big has to be able to make them pay from the perimeter,” Nurse said. “You need a spacing big who can hit [the three].” Through two games, Gasol is 3-for-20 from the field, and 2-for-9 from three. Serge Ibaka has missed all four of his three-point attempts in this series. If Nurse does make a lineup change in Game 3, it will likely be swapping Ibaka into the starting lineup for Gasol. The Raptors absolutely need one of their centers to have a huge offensive game to have a chance to get back into this series.
The three outs: Nurse summed up the Game 2 loss succinctly a day later. “We were outworked, outhustled, outplayed. That’s three outs, end of inning,” Nurse said. “We know we can play better than that.” As for the odds being stacked against the Raptors given the percentages of teams who have come back from a 0-2 deficit? “I don’t really give a crap about that,” Nurse said. “I just want our team to play our ass off tomorrow, get one game, and it changes the series.” As for what he’s looking for tomorrow? “Physicality, defence and great communication.”
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