Time is running out for Speaker Kevin McCarthy as government shutdown looms: 5 takeaways

Congress faces another fiscal crisis as Speaker Kevin McCarthy struggles to craft a spending plan that will please conservative House Republicans and keep the federal government open.

It is an almost impossible task for McCarthy, whose job has been threatened by ultraconservative GOP members at almost every turn since grabbing the gavel in January after a marathon 15 rounds of voting.

The California Republican appears no closer to herding the 221-member GOP caucus towards a spending plan ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline that will make fiscal hawks happy by significantly curbing federal spending while also getting approval from the Democratic-controlled Senate and President Joe Biden.

A shutdown "would only give strength to Democrats," McCarthy said earlier this week. But GOP hardliners ignored those warnings and have dug in on their opposition, with some voting against their party's own Defense bill.

Here are the important takeaways.

What is the big fight?

How much the federal government should spend next year is the chief question.

The more conservative Republican members, namely with the House Freedom Caucus, want to slash to about $1.4 trillion on annual discretionary funding, which is lower than the $1.6 trillion McCarthy and Biden agreed upon earlier this year.

Those right-leaning lawmakers want 8% spending cuts on federal agencies except for the national defense budget, the Department of Veterans Affairs and disaster relief.

But even the defense spending plan failed when five GOP members — Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Ken Buck (R-Colo.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) — voting against that measure on Tuesday, citing objections to McCarthy's overall strategy.

That was striking because the bill is filled with items conservatives like, such as restrictions on affirmative action, abortion access and transgender medical care.

Deal with House Democrats in the works

If McCarthy can't get the job done, there are whispers that a side deal could be hatched between more moderate Republicans and House Democrats.

"House Dems are ready, willing and able to find bipartisan common ground and solve problems for the American people," House Democratic Hakeem Jeffries, of New York, said Tuesday in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

"What's the issue? The other side can’t even find common ground with each other."

Those talks involve the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, a group made up of centrist Republican and Democratic House lawmakers. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., one of the co-chairs of the group along with Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., told USA TODAY the negotiations were still in early stages.

In order to sidestep McCarthy and his beef with the Freedom Caucus, a bipartisan coalition would need six Republicans to join the 212 Democratic caucus to bypass standard procedure and force a vote on a spending bill using what's called a discharge petition.

Gaetz's bathroom leak

Amid these tense negotiations, someone left a draft resolution by Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fl., to remove McCarthy at a baby-changing station in a congressional bathroom.

The document was discovered by a reporter and immediately started a game of Clue as to whether leaving the measure was a deliberate attempt to intimidate the speaker, or an accident.

A week ago Gaetz threatened to oust the speaker over his failure to live up to the agreement made with conservative lawmakers that elevated McCarthy to the role, citing a failure to hold votes on issues like term limits for lawmakers or balanced budgets, and not releasing the full security tapes from the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.

The Florida Republican, who has been a McCarthy foe for months, has been relentless this week in criticizing McCarthy whether online or durinng cable TV interviews.

McConnell's warning: Shutdowns hurt GOP more

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., might be keeping quiet in sharing this thoughts on McCarthy and House Republicans pursuing an impeachment inquiry against Biden, but he isn't keeping a tight lip about a possible shutdown.

"I think all of you know I’m not a fan of government shutdowns. I’ve seen a few of them over the years. They never have produced a policy change and they’ve always been a loser for Republicans, politically,” McConnell told reporters Tuesday.

Since 2010, the U.S. has been through five major fiscal standoffs between Republicans and Democrats, and polling has shown in most of those cases the American people's anger was focused on the GOP.

Some 52% percent of voters blamed Trump for the 35-day government shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 over immigration versus 34% who blamed congressional Democrats, according to a Morning Consult survey.

All eyes on McCarthy

All federal agencies except those that are "essential" such as the U.S. Postal Service, Medicare and Social Security, will close if Congress and Biden can't agree on how to pay the bills.

That means furloughs for federal employees, delayed government food assistance benefits for people in need and closed national parks.

Time is running out for McCarthy, who has very few options left.

Some allies have suggested the speaker reach out to Democrats to cut a deal that will spare the country a shutdown, but politically speaking that will most certainly trigger a backlash from his most conservative caucus members.

Others point out McCarthy can buy himself more time by backing a continuing resolution, which would extend current funding and the deadline to pass a new budget until Oct. 30.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Speaker McCarthy holds limited options as shutdown looms: 5 takeaways