Timothy Ash: What Xi really wants in Moscow

Editor’s Note: The following is taken from Timothy Ash's Substack blog, @tashecon blog, and republished with his permission. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.

First, I think ideally Xi would want to call an end to the war in Ukraine.

It may initially have served a purpose for China, in trying to put Russia and the West/Ukraine at loggerheads, in conflict or proxy conflict, and weakening both, but I think China now sees a real prospect of a catastrophic defeat for Russia, and perhaps regime change there with Putin ousted for something likely less aligned with China. That would be a disaster for China, as it would leave the country further encircled by foes. 

So Xi would love to push a peace deal on Putin and Ukraine, but its only real interest here is saving Putin - it’s not really interested in viewing all this through any Ukrainian prism. Indeed, having done little to engage with Ukraine over the period since independence, Chinese officials simply don’t understand Ukraine, or don’t really want to. And that’s a problem when it comes to forcing peace on Ukraine as, if China does not understand the Ukrainian perspective, how can it figure out a solution which is also amenable to Kyiv?

Second, if Xi cannot get a lasting peace effort or ceasefire, he will at least think that it will win plaudits in the Global South, and perhaps even Europe, just for trying. In what it sees as an increasingly polarized world, China hopes to pull off elements of the Global South and even Europe, away from the U.S.-led Western alliance by marketing itself as a global peacemaker and neutral arbiter (even though it clearly is not).

Third, again, if Xi cannot secure a peace agreement, he will at least want to enforce guardrails on Putin to limit risks of escalation in the conflict away from anything which can destabilize the global economy.

Important herein to understand that China’s long-term game plan is still to win global hegemony over the U.S. through economic development, and through globalization. China wins through globalization and hates anything that undermines the global status quo - this war has spiked global commodity prices higher, hurt supply chains, and hit global trade and growth, all of which is bad for the China hegemony bid through economic development.

So that’s Xi, what about Putin?

Putin has by now realized that Russia cannot win this conflict - it currently has no path to victory. So Putin really has only two options:

First, well, ideally Putin would want full China backing for his conquest of Ukraine. Ideally, that would be Chinese military backing to push the Ukrainians back to deliver full victory in Ukraine. Putin perhaps feels that even the Chinese lining up on his side in Ukraine could be enough to frighten the West into backing off in support for Ukraine, leading then to eventual Ukrainian surrender to Russia.

Second, if Chinese military backing is not forthcoming - it likely is not - Putin wants China to force Ukraine and the West to the negotiating table to bring a peace. Putin would now take a peace in Ukraine where he keeps what he has, even better forcing guarantees also of no future NATO enlargement, and some limits on Ukraine’s rearmament. The latter would be aimed at giving a future option of Russia rearming and then re-invading Ukraine. Obviously, the latter scenario is in no way acceptable to Ukraine.

I still think that Putin is now so weak and vulnerable that he might just be forced to concede to a deal whereby Russian forces withdraw to positions held before Feb. 24, 2022, with longer-term UN negotiations over the future of Crimea and the Donbas, and then some formula around no NATO membership for Ukraine in exchange then for some form of Western security guarantees for Ukraine.