Title 42's end could spark new wave of asylum seekers from Mexico, Central America
The end of Title 42 is expected to trigger a large wave of asylum seekers into the U.S. who have been waiting in border communities in Mexico for the emergency pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted.
Hundreds of asylum seekers have already crossed the Rio Grande into El Paso, Texas, in recent days in anticipation of Dec. 21, when the Biden administration under court order is scheduled to stop expelling large numbers of migrants to Mexico and instead allow those who might qualify for asylum to enter the U.S.
But the end of Title 42, a public health rule implemented under the Trump administration in 2021 ostensibly to prevent the spread of COVID-19, could also spur a new wave of migrants to leave their home countries to seek asylum in the U.S., experts say.
Title 42 has mainly been applied to migrants from Mexico, the Central American countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, and more recently migrants from Venezuela. As a result, the number of migrants arriving at the southern border from those countries fell sharply.
The end of Title 42, however, could signal that the border is again open and more migrants from those countries could attempt to reach the U.S. border.
"I think there's likely a population of people that are from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and even Mexico that have been trying to wait it out," said Maureen Meyer, vice president of programs for the Washington Office on Latin America, a human rights organization that opposes the use of Title 42 to expel migrants.
Many migrants in Mexico
Some of those who may seek to come to the U.S. are currently stuck in Mexico because the U.S. border was closed while others have been waiting in their home countries for the chance to seek asylum in the U.S., Meyer said.
"And so I think there's people that would likely try to come now because they view the U.S. border as being open to asylum seekers," Meyer said.
In October, the Biden administration also began expelling to Mexico migrants from Venezuela who entered illegally under a new agreement with Mexico in an attempt to manage a surge of migrants fleeing a humanitarian and economic crisis in Venezuela. At the time, there were thousands of migrants from Venezuela in transit to the U.S.
Is Border Patrol ready? US officials offer few details on plans when Title 42 policy lifts
"A lot of that population continues to be sort of stuck somewhere between the Darien Gap (between Colombia and Panama) and elsewhere and the US-Mexico border. And so I think you also have a population that's, quite frankly, just waiting it out for their chance to see if the U.S. border is going to be open to them, and you'll likely see, if it is the case, that more people will come," Meyer said.
It's possible, however, that many of the migrants who decide to come to the United States once Title 42 restrictions are lifted may not make it, Meyer said.
That is because Mexico has significantly increased immigration enforcement in the interior of Mexico.
Mexico has apprehended more than 345,000 migrants without documents through October this year, according to data from the National Migration Institute, Mexico's immigration enforcement agency.
In October, the most recent month data is available, immigration enforcement authorities in Mexico apprehended more than 52,000 migrants.
"In past years, that's sometimes the entire number for the year," Meyer said. "Mexico is certainly increasing its enforcement."
The Mexican immigration enforcement agency's Twitter account is filled with pictures of officials stopping and detaining migrants along roads and highways headed for the U.S., Meyer said.
A Twitter post on Dec. 13, for example, shows immigration authorities stopping a passenger bus in the central Mexican state of Tlaxcala and apprehending 47 migrants from other countries who did not have authorization to be in Mexico.
Mexico also has been preparing for an influx of migrants, Meyer said. The government recently opened a provisional center in the southern state of Chiapas to process migrants and provide them with transit visas allowing them to travel through Mexico legally.
It's possible, however, that Mexico could be preparing to further clamp down on migration between its borders in cooperation with the United States, once Title 42 ends, Meyer said.
Large caravans formed to get around authorities
At Mexico's southern border with Guatemala, large numbers of migrants have been temporarily blocked from traveling through the country and have been living in shelters, makeshift camps and government facilities in Tapachula, a city in the state of Chiapas near the border with Guatemala.
Already groups of migrants frustrated by the inability to move north have formed large caravans of a thousand or more people to try and reach the United States. Such large groups are difficult for immigration authorities to stop. But more recently large caravans have been broken up by Mexico before reaching the northern border with the U.S. It's possible more caravans could form if more migrants from other countries pour into southern Mexico and are unable to move north.
"If you are not allowed to leave Chiapas north, then your only other option is to move farther south, so if that continues, you might see again increased intensive caravans and protests of migrants," Meyer said.
Smuggling activity may also increase, as frustrated migrants look for ways to evade immigration enforcement in Mexico, she said.
President Joe Biden is expected to travel to Mexico in January as part of a summit for North American leaders, and grappling with migration is expected to be a key topic of discussion, Meyer said.
"The overall request has always been, what else can Mexico do? Right? What else can you do to increase enforcement? What else can you do to receive asylum seekers and process asylum seekers in Mexico versus the United States?" Meyer said.
While the U.S. may want Mexico to further increase immigration enforcement in the wake of the termination of Title 42, that may be difficult, considering how powerful criminal smuggling organizations have become in Mexico, said David Bier, associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.
"It's very difficult when (Mexico is) in a war with the cartels, and it's only getting worse. The cartels have de facto control in many areas. So if they want people to get through, they'll be able to get people through," Bier said. "So from the U.S. perspective, I wouldn't be banking on Mexico being the solution."
"But I guarantee that the Biden administration sees them as a big part of the solution already and wants to continue that approach," Bier said.
Bier doesn't believe, however, that large caravans that may form in the wake of Title 42 will reach the U.S. border because Mexico will continue to break them up.
"They want to avoid the big PR nightmare of having thousands of people marching through Mexico up to the border as a group," Bier said.
Reach the reporter at daniel.gonzalez@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-8312. Follow him on Twitter @azdangonzalez.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: End of border restrictions could spark more migrant caravans in Mexico
