Todd Golden: TODD AARON It's getting tough all over again for ISU football

Jul. 23—One of the annual rites of renewal for those of us who cover college athletics is to vote in the conference preseason football poll.

When it comes to the Missouri Valley Football Conference? Once you get past the formality of writing down "1. North Dakota State"? It becomes a teaching moment.

As in, I teach myself what's been happening around the rest of the Missouri Valley Football Conference in terms of personnel moves, transfers and the like. This year? What you see when you look at the width and breadth of the league is how much the divide might be growing between the elite and not-so-elite. On paper? That's going to make life very tough for Indiana State football.

Roster turnover in football has always been part of the landscape. To go with that, the twin tornadoes that have rocked college athletics in general — the transfer portal and NIL — certainly have had their place in the MVFC and FCS.

And unlike basketball, where, in theory, there's 351 different destinations for a basketball player to go (not counting lower divisions), football is a more confined space.

Both the transfer portal and NIL tend to favor the rich getting richer and when the rich get richer in football? It tends to make the gap between the have's and have not's even wider.

One of the things the MVFC has prided itself on in its last decade-plus as the best conference in FCS has been its balance.

Yes, NDSU has dominated the league championship itself since 2011, but nearly every other school — including Indiana State — has had their moments where they could legitimately claim to be able to beat any other team in the league, at least on a given day.

Every team in the conference has made the FCS playoffs at least once since 2014. The Sycamores have the longest current MVFC playoff drought, but it's not even a decade long (and ISU got robbed when it should have been in the field back in 2018).

However, it's hard not to look at the list of best players in the MVFC and not think that it's a DSU world and everyone else has to live with it. Athlon's preseason FCS rankings have NDSU and South Dakota State 1-2 in their preseason top 25.

What little is out there nationally on best players in the league is absolutely dominated by Bison and Jackrabbits. There's some token appearances by some Penguins, Redbirds and Bears, but there's nary a Sycamore to be found.

Whether you want to chalk that up to Dakota-focused national myopia is up to you, and you may have a point (or you might not, they have earned their place as FCS elite), but the bottom line is that the usual MVFC suspects are stacked again in 2022.

And when you look at Indiana State? On paper, they have quite a few hurdles in their way.

Personnel-wise? There are some talented players on the roster, but very little in the way of proven veterans who have produced more than once in league play.

Wide receiver Dante Hendrix is a notable exception, he's demonstrated more than once that he's as good as any receiver in the league, but rest of the roster is dominated by potential, not certainty.

Position-by-position and unit-by-unit? There's question marks. Quarterback will always be in the spotlight and it was unresolved as of spring practice.

Cade Chambers and Gavin Screws were the signal-callers fighting for the starting job and neither has faced sustained enemy fire in the unforgiving MVFC.

ISU also lost 59.8% of its rushing attack. The receiving corps, both receivers and tight ends, are solid and the right side of the offensive line is back, but ISU is going to need to stay injury-free and also have several players take significant steps forward to present a threat to the MVFC's best defenses.

Defensively? Apart from breakout 2021 performer Geoffrey Brown at linebacker, there's not many anchors defensively who have performed at a league-best type of level. The defensive line is very young and so, potentially are the corners.

ISU's return game will get a big lift from the return of Dakota Caton, but there will be a new kicker, long snapper and punter.

In other words? There's a lot of things that have to break just right personnel-wise for ISU to make a leap from its 5-6 season in 2021.

But wait! There's more?

For those of you clamoring for ISU to beef up its schedule? This is the year for you! It may not be the right year for ISU in terms of experience, but the schedule ISU has in front of it is one of the most challenging its had in years.

The quality of teams coming into Memorial Stadium in 2022 might be, pound-for-pound, the best that's appeared on a modern ISU home slate. That's great for the fans, but a a major challenge for the Sycamores.

North Alabama, ISU's opening opponent on Sept. 1, was a Division II power that recently transitioned to Division I.

The Lions were 3-8 last season, and while you'd favor ISU to beat them, they're not the usual home game road apple like the Quincy's of the world once were.

After that? It's 10 games of nothing but bad road. ISU plays its guarantee game at Purdue on Sept. 10. The Boilermakers will likely be middle-of-the-pack in the Big Ten, but that's a handful for any FCS program to overcome.

That's followed by, what may be the best FCS nonconference home opponent that's ever been on an ISU home slate. Montana visits Memorial Stadium on Sept. 17.

Athlon had the Grizzlies No. 3 in their preseason poll after the DSU's, so, yes, ISU will very likely face the three best teams in FCS this season.

After a bye week comes the annual MVFC gauntlet. The schedule rotation changed slightly with North Dakota coming into the league a few years ago ... and not to ISU's benefit in 2022.

ISU starts at Northern Iowa on Oct. 1, a place where the Sycamores very rarely have a good time, and that's followed by NDSU's visit to Memorial Stadium. ISU has only beaten NDSU once since the Bison came into the league in 2008.

Youngstown State is winnable, but it's away this year. ISU has actually done fairly well at Stambaugh Stadium in recent years, but you'd rather have that game at home this year.

Homecoming is on Oct. 22 against Illinois State. The Redbirds have declined recently, so this is a must-win. A week later, ISU goes to SDSU, a heavy challenge for any team.

If ISU can emerge from that stretch? It's a little bit better in November, but hardly a cake walk. ISU finally meets MVFC newbies North Dakota on Nov. 5 at home. The Fighting Hawks have made or threatened to make the playoffs annually since entering the MVFC.

A trip to Western Illinois on Nov. 12 offers the best chance for a road win. ISU finishes with Missouri State at home on Nov. 19. Through the 2010s, ISU was better than the Bears, but Bobby Petrino has made Missouri State winners and a preseason top 10 team.

ISU won't play South Dakota, and strangely, Southern Illinois in 2022. While neither is a pushover, you'd much rather avoid the DSU's if one had their druthers.

All of that is daunting, isn't it? The one thing that ISU has going for it is that preseason expectations have often gone against type since Curt Mallory has been in charge.

Some seasons you thought might go well, haven't been as good, but when expectations are lower, the Sycamores have risen to the occasion, most notably, in 2018.

However, there's little doubt that for ISU to contend for a FCS playoff spot in 2022? Just about every question mark has to be answered positively and ISU will have to find a way to navigate a nasty schedule.

It's always been tough in the MVFC, but it's getting tougher than ever to climb the ladder.

Todd Golden is sports editor of the Tribune-Star. He can be reached at (812) 231-4272 or todd.golden@tribstar.com. Follow Golden on Twitter at @TribStarTodd.