FFL Flash Alert - Matt Harmon, Andy Behrens and Liz Loza discuss whether or not Todd Gurley will go over/under 11.9 fantasy points in Week 4 vs. the Packers.
ANDY BEHRENS: Our final over under, we're going to go to that shootout. We think shootout of a game on Monday night between Atlanta and Green Bay. Todd Gurley, 11.9 fantasy points. I will start us off on this one, I'm not just going to lean into the camera and look sexy, I'm going to tell you why Todd Gurley is not going to get there. I want the under in this one.
First of all, he played only about 50% of the snaps last time out, Brian Hill taking on a greater role. There are no catches here. He has three receptions on the season for three yards, so you're not going to get any kind of PPR half PPR bump out of Todd Gurley. He's going to need to find the end zone maybe twice in order to get to this total. I don't like it, I want the under. Liz, how do you feel about this?
LIZ LOZA: I feel very similarly, Andy. You hinted at Brian Hills' involvement, and this-- my under projection for Gurley is less about Gurley and more about Hill, who produced just two fewer yards than Todd Gurley on five fewer touches last week. He also was targeted more in the passing game than Todd Gurley, which is telling, considering Julio Jones was out and Russell Gage got knocked out of the game.
We also know that Brian Hill has got more burst, and please, his legs are definitely more fresh. The Falcon's are 0 and 3. It's about time they see what else they got, and I think that else is Brian Hill. Under.
ANDY BEHRENS: Matt, why not give us a sweep? Come on, come on.
MATT HARMON: This idiot's going to go over on this one. I mean, look, the Packers right now are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, which is pretty standard for a Mike Pettine defense, OK? They always just invite you to run on them. And right now they're 29th in rushing success rate allowed.
And the Falcons, Brian Hills is running the ball pretty well, and look, Gurley still has produced a little bit on the ground. So here in a high scoring game, I think there's going to be a lot of points. Wouldn't surprise me if Gurley has a high yardage total and gets in the box as a rusher. I agree, you can't count on much PPR bonus from those catches, but I think there's going to be enough rushing production for Gurley to get there.