Tom Kacich: Champaign County GOP chief sees hope among gloom

Dec. 18—Weigh in with a Letter to the Editor

Less than 11 months from Election Day, and it appears that Champaign County Republicans are headed for another drubbing.

Somehow, Donald Trump — who has gotten a meager 37 percent of the vote in each of his two races here — probably will again be at the top of the GOP ticket. The party has no candidate for three countywide offices (state's attorney, circuit clerk and auditor). It has no candidate in seven of 13 county board races. Its army of candidates for precinct committeeperson — the worker bees of local politics — numbers 18 fewer than the Democrats. And it has a lot less money in its campaign fund than the local Dems.

Not so fast, says Jim McGuire, chairman of the local Republicans.

He acknowledges that Trump's unpopularity, particularly in Champaign and Urbana, "is an issue." But President Joe Biden will be a drag on the Democratic ticket as well. And other issues — inflation, crime and public safety, political corruption in Illinois, election integrity — will benefit Republicans, McGuire said.

"We have a plan. We've already identified 8,000 voters, primarily Republicans, who didn't vote in the last election," he said. "We're going to target them. The independents, the same way."

Many of those missing voters are in southwest and west Champaign, areas that not long ago were reliably Republican. But Trump is so disliked that he damaged the entire Republican brand there in the last two elections. At least, that's been my take for the last seven years.

McGuire said that overlooks Democratic Party vulnerabilities.

"The independents in southwest Champaign and in Urbana, they're the ones we need to reach and talk to them about crime and safety and these other issues," he said.

It's unlikely, he said, that Republicans will field candidates for those three countywide offices.

"You're talking about (State's Attorney) Julia Rietz. We're not going to find someone to run against Julia Rietz," McGuire said of the prosecutor seeking her sixth term. "There's no way we're going to find someone with those kinds of qualifications."

And the auditor and circuit clerk positions "are places where you need experience and training that makes it harder to locate a candidate," he said.

But Republicans are hopeful of finding more candidates for county board races and for precinct committeepeople, McGuire said.

And they're joining with the state Republican Party in making election integrity a top issue, he said, referencing missteps by and claims against the office of Democratic County Clerk and Recorder Aaron Ammons, who was elected five years ago.

"People won't run because they're not sure they will get a fair shake from the clerk's office. It's too partisan," McGuire said.

It's the same kind of criticism Democrats used to throw at the office in the 1970s, '80s and '90s, when it was run by Republican clerks Dennis Bing and Mark Shelden.

"Election integrity will be a big push across the state," McGuire said. "The (state) party is pushing it. And we're going to try to find as many poll-watchers and election judges as we can to make sure that we can cover every election center, every polling place, and have people in the clerk's office all the way down the line so people can have some confidence that the election is being run the right way. We've tried to recruit election judges in the past, but for this election, we're going to be all over it."

Congressional primaries

U.S. Rep. Mary Miller, R-Oakland, so far is unopposed in seeking a third term to represent the 15th Congressional District in Congress.

No one else, Republican or Democrat, filed to run in the giant rural district that takes in all or part of 34 Illinois counties. Democratic leaders could name a candidate later, but it likely would be an act of futility. Miller won with 71 percent of the vote last year against Quincy Democrat Paul Lange. Miller represents the most conservative district in Illinois, which also includes about 30 percent of the voters in Champaign County.

U.S. Rep. Nikki Budzinski, D-Springfield, who represents most of Champaign County in Congress, is unopposed in the 13th Congressional District Democratic primary but has two Republican foes who will face off in the March primary: Thomas Clatterbuck of Champaign and Joshua Loyd of Virden.

And U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Matteson, has no primary opposition in Illinois' 2nd Congressional District, which includes Ford and Iroquois counties, the northern half of Vermilion County and Rantoul in Champaign County, and likely will be opposed in November by Republican Ashley Ramos of Clifton.

Presidential delegate petitions

Although the filing date for most candidates in Illinois' March 19 primary has passed, the last day for those seeking to be presidential preference and convention delegates and alternate delegates to file petitions is Jan. 5.

Rauner and DeSantis

Former Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner, now living in Key Largo, Fla., was once a major supporter of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rauner gave $250,000 to DeSantis' re-election campaign in 2021.

But 2023 is a different story. With DeSantis still viewed as one of the top challengers to Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, Rauner — long hostile to Trump — is backing a different candidate. Campaign finance records show that the multi-millionaire former governor gave $6,600 in late August to the campaign of former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

"I think he's done a terrific job as governor of Florida and I've been, as I think you know, a big supporter of him in that role," Rauner told Politico. "I think Nikki Haley probably has the best chance to win the general election. I think everyone is trying to sort things out. We gotta win, we gotta win the general."

Meanwhile, in Rauner's former home state, Trump leads in funds raised among the Republican presidential contenders. Federal Election Commission data shows that Donald J. Trump for President 2024 had raised $1.16 million in Illinois through Sept. 30. Haley's campaign was No. 2 with $551,200 raised, and DeSantis was third at $503,554. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy trailed, each with about $122,000 raised.

Illinois remains a sort of dry hole for Republican presidential contenders. Although sixth in population and eighth in average net worth, Illinois' best showing was No. 8 among the states in money raised for both Haley and Christie. Illinois ranked No. 9 in money raised for DeSantis, 10th in money to Ramaswamy and 12th in contributions to Trump. Tennessee, with about half the population of Illinois, gave more money to Trump's campaign.

As of Sept. 30, Biden had raised $1.5 million in Illinois, making it No. 6 among the states, behind California, New York, Washington, Massachusetts and Florida.

Rodney Davis

Former U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, whose congressional district included Champaign-Urbana, has given a modest amount of campaign assistance to Republicans since leaving Congress in January, but none to presidential contenders or his former Illinois colleagues. Davis was defeated for re-election last year in the 15th Congressional District primary by Miller.

Campaign records show he has given $1,000 each to Tony Gonzales for Congress (Gonzales is an incumbent from Texas) and Kansans for LaTurner (Jake LaTurner also is an incumbent), $500 each to the House Conservatives Fund (affiliated with Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana), Hern for Congress (Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma) and Nicole for New York (Rep. Nicole Malliotakis) and $4,583.33 to the Cozen O'Connor Political Action Committee. Davis is a lobbyist with Cozen O'Connor, which is based in Philadelphia.