Tony Dungy: Browns can't rely on Deshaun Watson to be 'savior that rallies a poor team'

Deshaun Watson's elite talent and Pro Bowl resume might lull the Browns into believing they're destined for a run late this year after the quarterback's suspension ends.

And sometimes procrastination doesn't cost NFL teams a trip to the playoffs because they can become hot after Thanksgiving and capture a postseason berth despite a less-than-stellar start.

Yet “Football Night in America” analyst and Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy doesn't envision the upcoming Browns season unfolding within those parameters.

“Deshaun Watson is not going to be the savior that rallies a poor team or a team that's not functioning,” Dungy said Thursday during a “Football Night in America” conference call hosted by NBC Sports. “They're not going to just say, 'Oh, all of a sudden Deshaun's back, and we're going to start winning.' What do they do in these first three months of the season?

“What kind of ball is Cleveland going to be playing? What is the rest of the team doing? Jacoby Brissett is a good quarterback, and if they can rally around him and be relevant [when Watson returns from his suspension], then they're going to be fine.”

But merely treading water without Watson might not be good enough, especially in the stacked AFC.

Deshaun Watson's suspension is underway and scheduled to keep him out of game action until December

Watson is suspended for the first 11 regular-season games because of violations of the NFL's personal conduct policy and a settlement agreed upon Aug. 18 by the league and NFL Players Association. The punishment stems from 26 women accusing Watson through the judicial system of sexual misconduct or sexual assault, allegations the three-time Pro Bowl quarterback has denied. Two Texas grand juries declined to indict Watson in March on a combined 10 criminal complaints. Twenty-four of Watson's accusers sued him, with all but one of them settling.

Watson's suspension began Tuesday. In his absence, the Browns will start Brissett at the sport's most important position, beginning Sept. 11 with the season opener on the road against the Carolina Panthers and former Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield.

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Watson, 26, is not permitted at Browns headquarters in Berea until Oct. 10. He won't be allowed to practice with the team again until Nov. 14. And to be back on time, he must fulfill the terms of the settlement. Those stipulations call for him to comply with a professional evaluation and treatment plan, which includes counseling.

As long as Watson checks those boxes, he'll be eligible to make his regular-season Browns debut Dec. 4 on the road against the Houston Texans, who drafted him 12th overall out of Clemson University in 2017 and traded him to Cleveland on March 18. Watson waived his no-trade clause to join the Browns after they offered him a record-setting contract for five years and $230 million fully guaranteed.

Watson refused to play for the Texans last season amid a trade request, so his layoff is slated to last 28 games (17 last season and 11 in 2022). He last played in a real game on Jan. 3, 2021, so if he returns Dec. 4, it will have been 700 days since his last regular-season appearance. Put another way, his hiatus will have spanned one year, 11 months and one day.

“There are certainly going to be hurdles,” Dungy said, “especially when you haven't played in two years.”

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Rust can be a real factor in sports. When Watson played Aug. 12 in the preseason opener, he completed 1 of 5 passes for 7 yards with a rating of 39.6. He also encountered boos and vulgar chants from the crowd at TIAA Bank Field.

The experience provided a peek of what he can expect when he returns, especially with four of the Browns' final six regular-season games on the road. They'll travel to Houston and Cincinnati, then host Baltimore and New Orleans before visiting Washington and Pittsburgh.

“[Cleveland's] roster is talented. It's a lot of things to like,” said Chris Simms, a “Football Night in America” analyst and former NFL quarterback. “It does start with that offensive line [and] unbelievable two-headed monster at running back [Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt]. The defense was top five in football last year. They've got arguably the best pass rusher in football [Myles Garrett]. If they run the ball, make a few plays on defense, they could be a pain in the butt.”

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Simms said he questions whether the Browns should definitely turn to Watson in December, even if Brissett has guided them to a surprising amount of wins — nine is the number Simms used for the sake of conversation.

“I mean, I'm not crazy, but I'm kind of crazy — I'd go, 'Maybe let's not upset the applecart there and just ride it out for this year,'” Simms said. “But if they feel like in any way, shape or form, 'Hey, it's not this year, we're a .500 ball club [and] we're not doing good,' Deshaun Watson's got to play again.

“He's got to get out there play football and deal with the booing crowd 'cause the booing crowd is going to be there in 2023, too, so you might as well get the training wheels off in this experience. But I'll be interested to see what this Browns team looks like before he gets back.”

Jason Garrett has a clear idea of what the Browns ought to resemble.

“If you think about the DNA of this team, when they've been their best since [coach] Kevin Stefanski has taken over, it's about their offensive line and their running game,” said Garrett, a “Football Night in America” analyst and former longtime Dallas Cowboys coach. “So if they can establish that with Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback, that'll take the burden off him.

“He's played football, but he hasn't played a ton of football. You don't want him to have to carry the whole load. If they can get back to playing that physical style of ball, featuring those running backs, making their big plays in the play-action game, in their movement game, if they can do that in the early part of the season, it'll set up well for Deshaun when he does come back. But that's a big question. We'll see if they're able to do that.”

If the Browns can't do it, entering the playoffs with the quarterback for whom they surrendered six draft picks and an unprecedented amount of guaranteed money might be a far-fetched scenario until at least the 2023 season.

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Nate Ulrich can be reached at nulrich@thebeaconjournal.com.

On Twitter: @ByNateUlrich.

This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Tony Dungy: Browns can't rely on Deshaun Watson to save poor season