Some too-early 49ers fantasy football advice
There may not be a more frustrating team from a fantasy football standpoint than the San Francisco 49ers.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan utilizes his entire roster, they almost never have a true No. 1 running back, and their injury situation is perpetually bad.
That could all be changing though as the team ushers in a new era where Trey Lance is lining up under center and their crop of top-end playmakers becomes more reliable. Of course, Year 1 in the Lance era could lead to some added frustration.
Training camp could change a lot of these early prognostications, but here’s some advice for people doing their drafts through the early part of the Summer:
Have patience with Trey Lance
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A player with Lance’s skill set in Shanahan’s offense is tantalizing for fantasy football players, but exercise caution if drafting him for his rushing upside. In two-quarterback or super flex leagues he’s a no-brainer pick. There’s more risk in single QB leagues though.
He didn’t look to be a prolific runner in his two starts last season, with just 24 carries for 120 yards. That number is buoyed by a whopping 16 rushes for 81 yards in his first start against the Cardinals. His eight carries for 31 yards against the Texans in Week 17 looked more normal. While the rushing upside could be there, it has to supplement more prolific passing productivity. Whether he can throw at a high level in the NFL remains to be seen. That shouldn’t keep fantasy players from plucking him for his upside though.
The advice here would be to use Lance as a backup plan if possible. Make him the second QB on a one-QB roster and give yourself a chance to see what he looks like as a passer. Perhaps he comes out and lights it up from Day 1, which is an ideal scenario. There’s a chance he struggles out of the gate though and comes into his own in time for the playoffs. In that case sticking it out with him could ultimately be a league winner.
What to do at RB
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Draft them all just in case. That’s partly in jest, but it’s also not far off. Elijah Mitchell figures to be the lead back going into the year, and he’s worth taking in the middle rounds. Fantasy Pros has him going as the RB24, 51st overall. That makes sense and it may be worth snagging him a little earlier.
Don’t sleep on Tyrion Davis-Price as a fantasy-relevant option though. He’s going undrafted in Fantasy Pros, which makes him a good option in the last couple rounds when sleepers and fliers are taken. First, he figures to be the team’s goal-line back where he can vulture some touchdowns. Second, there’s a legitimate chance he splits carries with Mitchell or fills in as the starter if Mitchell, who only played 11 games last year, is unavailable. He’s definitely worth a late-round draft-and-stash, especially in deeper leagues.
The two other names to watch during camp and the preseason are Trey Sermon and Jeff Wilson Jr. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Sermon finds new life in the Lance-led offense and takes on the RB2 role. However, if he’s not performing in the preseason it’s hard to imagine him carving out a real role this year. The same goes for Wilson, who’s role may be entirely dependent on injuries to players ahead of him on the depth chart.
Deebo's role
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There are a couple reasons to be cautious with Samuel, who’s the WR6 and going in the early-to-mid second round per Fantasy Pros. There are reports his offseason trade demand stems from dissatisfaction with his “wide back” role. He scored eight rushing touchdowns on 59 carries last year. It doesn’t sound like he’s interested in toting the rock as much, and the addition of Davis-Price in Round 3 of this year’s draft is an indicator the 49ers are inclined to acquiesce to his request.
Even without the rushing production last season, Samuel still posted 1,405 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns on 77 catches. He also had 121 targets. Samuel is certainly WR1 on the 49ers, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see those 121 targets dip some with Lance under center and a San Francisco offense that might lean more than ever on the run. Lance may also push the ball down the field more often than Jimmy Garoppolo did which may take away some of Samuel’s looks on short throws in the middle of the field.
One thing worth noting in regards to Samuel’s rapport with Lance: Three of Samuel’s six receiving TDs last season came from Lance, including two on throws more than 20 yards down field.
It’s absolutely worth picking Samuel, but there’s a question of value given how unlikely it is he repeats what he did a season ago. The 16th or 17th pick might be too early for the All-Pro receiver, especially if his rushing volume is significantly reduced.
Watch out for that defense
(AP Photo/Aaron Doster)
The best policy on defenses is to go with matchups and to try and grab a new defense each week. Every season though there are a couple defenses worth having every week. That might be San Francisco this year.
Their pass rush with Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Samson Ebukam and second-round pick Drake Jackson might be one of the NFL’s most prolific units. Combining that group with a revamped secondary led by former Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward may put the 49ers in a position to reprise the historically great defense they rolled out to start the 2019 campaign. If they’re racking up sacks and forcing turnovers, they’ll be worth having more weeks than not. Don’t overdraft them, but if their defense is hanging around in the final couple rounds – make the pick and ride it out.
Draft Brandon Aiyuk
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Fantasy Pros has Aiyuk as the WR40 with a consensus average draft position of 99. It would be wise to pick him before then and get him on the roster. This is the fantasy thing we’re hanging our hat on is that Aiyuk will have a big year in his third season. Despite an early-season hiccup last year that had him at 16 targets, nine catches, 96 yards and one touchdown through seven weeks, he finished with 84 targets, 56 catches, 826 yards and five touchdowns. Part of the uptick in productivity was because of Samuel’s move to a more prominent rushing role. However, Aiyuk seems to have a good rapport with Lance, and the bigger-armed Lance should unlock Aiyuk’s down-field ability more than Garoppolo could. Don’t be surprised if Aiyuk winds up leading the 49ers in receiving this year.
Know Jauan Jennings
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Jennings is a name to know in the event Samuel holds out or there’s an injury in the receiving corps. The third-year seventh-round pick from Tennessee is going to see plenty of action because of his blocking ability in the run game. However, he shined late last year as a pass catcher and he could see a ton of third-down and red zone action this season. Volume may be an issue for Jennings from a fantasy perspective, but that could change with one tweak of the depth chart. It’s probably not worth drafting Jennings. Knowing his name could be vital though so keep an eye on that 49ers WR corps for any availability problems throughout the year.
