Top Sox pitching prospects Mata, Murphy nearly ready for prime time

Sep. 25—WORCESTER — Around this time a year ago the first wave of Boston's latest crop of pitching prospects began approaching the big leagues.

Kutter Crawford and Connor Seabold both made their MLB debuts during the club's September COVID-19 outbreak and the expectation was Brayan Bello and Josh Winckowski would arrive at some point the following summer. All four have wound up seeing extended action with the Red Sox this year, with Bello and Crawford in particular establishing themselves as potential rotation mainstays.

Now, the next wave of talent is coming up behind them.

Top Red Sox pitching prospects Bryan Mata and Chris Murphy recently earned promotions to Triple-A, putting them in position to make a push to the big leagues in 2023 much like their minor league peers this year.

Mata, a 23-year-old right-hander from Venezuela, is Boston's No. 7 ranked prospect according to Baseball America and is already on the 40-man roster. He boasts overpowering stuff and a fastball that touches 100 mph, and he's enjoyed an impressive bounce-back season after missing two years due to the pandemic and Tommy John surgery.

Murphy, a 24-year-old lefty, comes in right after Mata at No. 8 in Baseball America's rankings and is a top candidate to be added to the 40-man this offseason to protect him from being taken in the Rule 5 Draft. Though Murphy's fastball doesn't light up the radar gun like Mata's, it still sits mid-90s and he knows how to mix it with his changeup and curveball to get both lefties and righties out.

"Both of them have big league stuff," said Worcester Red Sox pitching coach Paul Abbott.

Originally signed as an international free agent in 2016 for just $25,000, Mata reached as high as Double-A before the pandemic and injury disrupted his development. The 6-foot-3, 238-pounder made his long-awaited return with a rehab start at Low-A Salem on June 4 and quickly worked his way back to Portland. Once there he dominated for a 1.85 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 48.2 innings, earning a promotion to Triple-A in late August.

Mata has made a strong first impression, posting a 3.00 ERA through his first four starts in Worcester, but he's also endured some early growing pains. Having struggled with his command throughout his career, Mata walked 12 batters through his first 13 innings over three starts before settling down with a much improved fourth outing last Sunday.

"He actually gave up more baserunners on Sunday than he did Tuesday, but on Tuesday he walked five and hit two, so the hits he gave up were run-scoring hits," said Worcester manager Chad Tracy. "Sunday he scattered nine hits over the course of six innings, he didn't walk anybody, he's throwing 97-100 mph, landed his breaking ball and had good off-speed stuff.

"It's impressive," Tracy continued. "For me it's all about getting him where he was Sunday consistently, command the strike zone, be all around the box."

Murphy is in a similar spot, starting the year with a dominant showing at Double-A before enduring a rocky transition to Worcester following his late June promotion. A sixth-round pick out of the University of San Diego in 2019, Murphy broke out with a 2.58 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 76.2 innings with Portland but has a 5.17 ERA with 53 strikeouts against 39 walks in 69.2 innings with Worcester.

"There's a big difference in the talent level up here and your mistakes are a little more vulnerable," Murphy said. "You can get away with some more things down there than up here, so definitely trying to learn that and get through that."

Abbott said Murphy occasionally tries to do too much, which results in inconsistencies in his delivery, but when he's in a groove he can be dominant. Abbott said he believes with an offseason of work Murphy and Mata could both be in line to take their games to the next level.

"It's getting that familiarity with this level and that's why you see guys maybe struggle slightly be coming out of the gate next year and have a dominant first half, which they're capable of doing," Abbott said. "There's always a growing curve that you're seeing older guys, and then you get to the [big leagues] and you're seeing superstar guys, and then you're getting settled in and understanding you belong. Next year they're going to learn from this experience and come back better."

History is certainly on Murphy's side. He was knocked around in Double-A last season before owning the competition this spring, and he acknowledged he'd rather get the struggles out of the way in Worcester now rather than later when a big league roster spot could be on the line.

And Mata? After everything he's been through he's grateful to be back on the mound.

"I've been really happy with how the season has gone," Mata said via translator Jarrett Pico. "More importantly I'm happy that I feel healthy and able to be back pitching and competing."

Mata and Murphy will most likely start next season at Triple-A, but if they show signs of a breakthrough it may not take long for them to earn a big league look. Whether as a spot starter, an injury fill-in, a bullpen weapon or some other role, both pitchers have a bright future and fans will want to keep a close eye on their progress.

Red Sox finish $4.5 million over luxury tax

Despite a disappointing season that appears destined to end with a last-place finish, the Red Sox are still projected to have the fifth highest payroll in baseball.

According to an Associated Press analysis of team payrolls through Aug. 31, the Red Sox are carrying a payroll of $234.5 million, which trails only the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies. That figure is also $4.5 million over this year's luxury tax threshold, and while the $900,000 tax bill the Red Sox will have to pay isn't a big deal, there are other ramifications that may prove more costly.

Among those, if the Red Sox sign a free agent this offseason who received a qualifying offer from their former team, the club will lose its second and fifth-highest draft picks along with $1 million in international bonus pool money as opposed to just one pick had they stayed under the tax. In addition, if the Red Sox offer one of their own free agents a qualifying offer — Xander Bogaerts and Michael Wacha are possibilities — then the club would receive a worse compensatory draft pick if that player signs elsewhere.

Spending over the luxury tax multiple years in a row also results in stiffer penalties, so the club becoming first-time offenders during a last-place year could also affect roster building in the future when the club may be in better position to contend.

That will be a concern to watch in the future, but it also raises another obvious question many fans might have. How could the Red Sox possibly spend more than $234 million on payroll and finish in last place?

The problem is a large portion of this year's payroll has been spent on players who have either not contributed or who haven't been available for long stretches of the season.

First, take the $16 million the Red Sox paid David Price, who was traded to the Dodgers three years ago. Price obviously hasn't suited up for the Red Sox since 2019 but the club has continued paying half his salary ever since anyway.

Then take Chris Sale ($29 million) and James Paxton ($6 million), who effectively missed the entire season due to injury. That's $51 million out the door for nothing right off the bat.

On top of that, the Red Sox also spent another $74.4 million on players who either underperformed, missed extended time due to injury or both. That list includes Trevor Story ($23.3 million, missed two months), Nathan Eovaldi ($17 million, missed two-plus months over two IL stints), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($12 million, released in early August with -0.4 WAR), Matt Barnes ($8.1 million, missed two months), Kiké Hernández ($7 million, missed two months) and Michael Wacha ($7 million, missed two months over two IL stints).

Seeing as that all of those players are going to wind up playing approximately two-thirds of the season with the Red Sox, we can keep it simple and lop off about a third of that total, which equals roughly $25 million in additional dead money.

Add it all up, and the Red Sox paid $234.5 million to field a team that was really worth only about $158.5, or roughly two-thirds of what the club spent. That's obviously no way to build a sustainable winner, and going forward the Red Sox have to start getting a better return on their investment.

Pujols reaches 700 home runs

Future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols achieved an extraordinary milestone on Friday, becoming the fourth player in MLB history to reach 700 career home runs.

The St. Louis Cardinals great reached the mark in dramatic fashion, hitting two home runs in his team's 11-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In doing so the 42-year-old also reached 21 home runs in his final season, giving him at least 20 home runs in 18 of his 22 seasons as a big leaguer.

Pujols' resurgence has been one of baseball's best stories this year. While he's remained a productive player throughout much of the last decade, Pujols never reached his old MVP heights once he left the Cardinals for the Los Angeles Angels as a free agent after the 2011 season. By 2020 it looked like he was just about done, but he stuck around and enjoyed a brief but productive stint with the Dodgers in 2021, setting the stage for his return to St. Louis for one last season this year.

Entering Saturday Pujols was batting .265 with 21 home runs and 58 RBI in 101 games. It's unlikely he'll have a chance to climb any higher than fourth on the all-time home run list, however, as Babe Ruth (714) still has a sizable lead with less than two weeks to play in the season.

Could Red Sox land Phillips Academy's White?

Earlier this week Baseball America released its latest 2023 MLB Draft prospect rankings, and rising Phillips Academy senior Thomas White came in at No. 17 overall. The 6-foot-5 left-handed pitcher from Rowley has long been regarded as the top pitcher in the high school class of 2023 and is now regarded as the draft's No. 5 pitcher — college arms included — and as the top lefty.

If White does wind up being selected in the middle of the first round next summer, then he could be a potential target for the Boston Red Sox.

As of right now the Red Sox are projected to pick No. 14 overall, which could put them in range to grab the hometown phenom. Besides having White starring right in their backyard, the Red Sox also employ vice president of scouting development and integration Gus Quattlebaum, who is himself a former Phillips Academy baseball star and who is well acquainted with White's talents as a Big Blue alumnus.

After his first two years of high school were heavily disrupted by the pandemic, White enjoyed a breakout campaign this spring. He earned Massachusetts Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year after going 6-1 with a 0.21 ERA, 70 strikeouts and 10 hits allowed over 33 innings pitched, and he's now coming off a fantastic summer on the showcase circuit that earned him Summer Showcase All-Star honors from Baseball America.

Locals shine in minor league playoffs

The Portland Sea Dogs season came to an end Thursday night, losing 6-5 in 10 innings to the Somerset Patriots in Game 2 of their best-of-three playoff series. Somerset rallied twice in the late innings to force extras before winning on a walk-off single by Brandon Lockridge.

Trailing 5-3 in the bottom of the ninth, North Andover's Max Burt entered the game for Somerset as a pinch runner and came around to score as part of the two-run rally. Burt also had an at bat with a chance to win the series in the bottom of the 10th, and now his Patriots team will open their best-of-three Eastern League championship series against the Erie SeaWolves today.

Though the Sea Dogs couldn't force a decisive Game 3, Methuen's Jacob Wallace did his part. After starting pitcher Thad Ward pitched 4.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, Wallace came on and pitched 1.1 scoreless innings of relief, leaving with the Sea Dogs leading 2-0. The former Methuen High and UConn standout finishes the season 8-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 56.2 innings.

Two more locals will participate in the Triple-A playoffs as well. Ex-Central Catholic star Cam Devanney and Lexington's Sal Frelick both play for the Nashville Sounds, who won the International League West Division title and have clinched a berth in the International League championship game on Oct. 1. Should the Sounds win, they would then advance to the Triple-A National Championship Game, where they would play the Pacific Coast League champion for all the marbles on Oct. 2. Both games will be played in Las Vegas.

Email: mcerullo@northofboston.com.

Twitter: @MacCerullo.