Will Topeka see a white Christmas this year? Here's what the weather service says

Tim Hrenchir, Topeka Capital-Journal
·3 min read

This year may bring Topeka a wet Christmas, but probably not a white one.

The capital city has a mere 4.7% chance of seeing measurable snow on the ground Christmas Day, says an analysis published by BonusFinder.com, a Netherlands-based online casino.

Meteorological data supports that conclusion, says assistant state climatologist Matthew Sittel.

"A white Christmas seems unlikely for now," he said in a report posted online last week.

A city bus continued on its route along S.E. 6th Avenue after snow that fell prior to Christmas last year in Topeka. That snow struck around until Christmas Day due to conditions that brought "once-in-a-generation" wind chill indices.
A city bus continued on its route along S.E. 6th Avenue after snow that fell prior to Christmas last year in Topeka. That snow struck around until Christmas Day due to conditions that brought "once-in-a-generation" wind chill indices.

What does the weather service say?

A white Christmas, by meteorological definition, occurs if at least 1 inch of snow is on the ground at 7 a.m. Dec. 25, Sittel said.

Topeka is expected to see a high temperature of 57 degrees and a 70% chance of rain on Christmas Eve, followed by a 50% chance of rain and a low of 41 on the night before Christmas, the website of the Topeka office of the National Weather Service said Tuesday.

Topeka's Christmas Day forecast calls for a high of 51 with a 30% chance of rain, that site said.

This cold-weather season has already brought the capital city its snowiest November day since 1888, as 6.3 inches fell here on Nov. 25, followed by 0.9 inches early the following morning.

What Kansas cities are most likely to see a white Christmas?

Bonus Finder calculated the odds of a white Christmas this year for nearly 450 U.S. cities based on factors that included snowfall trends, the number of white Christmases they've seen in the past 20 years and the total number of snowy days they see in December, it said in a Dec. 13 news release.

The site put the odds for other cities in Kansas at 7.5% for Manhattan; 6.6% for Goodland; 5.2% for Salina and Kansas City, Kansas; 4.1% for Hays; 3.5% for Lawrence; 3.2% for Garden City; 2.7% for Dodge City; 2.5% for Hutchinson; 2.3% for Emporia; 2% for Wichita; and 1.4% for Coffeyville.

Nationally, BonusFinder said, the cities with the highest chance for a white Christmas this year are Montpelier, Vermont, at 98.6%; Ely, Minnesota, at 98.1%; and Wallace, Idaho, at 97%.

What does the state climatologist say?

Sittel said data covering the years 1991 to 2020 in Kansas showed the highest possibility for a white Christmas in any given year is 33%, at Mankato in north-central Kansas.

Meanwhile, he said, the chances are 23% at Concordia, 22% at Goodland and Manhattan, 21% at Hays, 18% at Topeka, 17% at Dodge City and 12% at Wichita.

Last year brought many Kansans a white Christmas, after snow that fell in previous days was kept from melting by conditions that brought "once-in-a-generation" wind chill indices.

Sittel said cities that still had snow on the ground on Dec. 25, 2022, included Goodland, with 3 inches; Wichita, with 2 inches; and Topeka and Manhattan, with 1 inch each.

While the lack of an encore this year would disappoint some people, Sittel said, those with travel plans before Christmas would welcome above-normal temperatures and an absence of snow.

The deepest snow Topeka has seen on Christmas Day was 6 inches, in 1983, Sittel said.

Contact Tim Hrenchir 785-213-5934 or threnchir@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Topeka forecast to see a wet Christmas but not a white one