Tornadoes, high wind risk in Tuesday night forecast
Nov. 28—TUPELO — A massive storm system that will make its way across Northeast Mississippi Tuesday afternoon could bring tornadoes and straight line winds after sunset and continue through the early morning hours.
The weather will include severe storms, heavy rain, tornadoes — with the potential for long-track tornadoes, winds up to 80 mph and hail the size of golf balls.
"Our main concern is tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado peak will be from 6 p.m. through around 11 p.m.," said Phil Baker, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Memphis, Tennessee. "Once we get past 10-11 p.m., the tornado risk will decrease, but the high wind potential will remain."
The storm system will move from the Louisiana area and travel to Northeast Mississippi at around 50-60 mph. Rain should begin mid-afternoon, but officials believe that storms could start rotating after sunset, creating the chance of tornadoes in the dark.
"We don't want folks to go to bed thinking the worst is over," Baker said. "We are looking at a four- to five-hour potential for tornadoes and some could be long track tornadoes (that stay on the ground for miles). People should watch their local weather, keep a weather radio nearby and, of course, keep their cell phones charged."
Mississippi residents are accustomed to summer storms that build strength with the heat of the day, but then die off after dark. In the winter, the time of day is not as important. The storm's strength is determined more by the jet stream.
"The jet stream is stronger in the winter and will pull in warm moist air from the gulf to fuel the storm," Baker said. "The wind shear is so strong, it gives they storm the ability to organize and persist without the heat of the day."
The current forecast has the worst of the storm tracking through the western part of the Daily Journal coverage area — Lafayette and Marshall counties. But the "moderate" risk extends as far east as Tupelo.
While the tornado risk will decrease substantially after 11 p.m., the risk of wind damage will extend through the early morning hours on Wednesday. Winds could be gusting in the 60-70 mph range.
"The bulk of the storm should be through the Tupelo area by 2 a.m.," Baker said. "It should make it past Monroe County, around Aberdeen, by 4 a.m. After that, it will move into Alabama."
The system will also bring heavy rains. If the storms start training, staying in one area for long periods of time, it could bring the potential for flash flooding.
