Tough oil sanctions would crush Russia and Putin, but Biden and Europe can't use them

With these words, President Joe Biden announced Thursday that U.S. sanctions won't stop Russia in its decision to invade Ukraine: "Our sanctions package is specifically designed to allow energy payments to continue."

As Russian tanks drive deeper into Ukraine, the United States and Europe announced a new round of sanctions against the aggressive dictatorship, but not the ones that would actually give strongman Vladimir Putin cause to reconsider his drive on Kyiv.

Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, after the United States and Saudi Arabia. The oil and gas sector make up 15% of the Russian economy and a staggering 60% of its exports. Revenue is north of $200 billion.

To say that Russia is dependent on fossil fuels is an understatement. The Russians know this, and for years they've been trying to grow their economy in other areas because climate change makes oil a long-term loser as an investment. Sanctions today on Russian oil similar to those that have effectively banned Iran from most international oil sales would crush the Russian economy and dry up the revenues paying for Russia's invasion.

Russia's massive weakness

For Russia, its energy sector is a massive weakness, but those outraged by its "unprovoked" invasion of democratic Ukraine can't do much about it.

In 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine through proxy forces in the East and directly in Crimea, Europe and the United States were faced with the same dilemma: Cut off Russian oil exports at great cost or nibble around the edges with weak sanctions that leave the Russian aggression in place. But Europe had to face the fact that Putin's Russia was its largest energy supplier for oil, natural gas and coal. And world prices would rise if Russia were cut off, hobbling economies around the globe from Japan and Australia to the United States and the United Kingdom.

'The Russian military is coming closer': What life is like in Ukraine as Russia invades

Russian sanctions are critical now: The world must hold firm.

Russian troops invaded Ukraine. Sanctions are in place. What happens next?

The United States and Europe decided to nibble at the Russian oil industry. U.S. sanctions "mainly affect Russian energy companies’ access to U.S. capital markets and to goods, services, and technology in support of deepwater exploration and field development," according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Europe and the United States could have taken the 2014 invasion as a warning to wean the global economy and the European continent off Russian oil. They didn't. Germany illustrates what Europe did – it doubled down on Russian energy. Germany agreed to take natural gas from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline being built and shut down all its nuclear reactors, causing it to fall back on coal and gas.

What emboldened Russia?

In the United States, where our resources could pick up some of the slack over time, President Biden has put the brakes on energy development. He killed the Keystone XL pipeline, restricted oil and gas leases on federal land in the Arctic and imposed tougher regulation of oil and gas production in the United States. Even in the face of an impending invasion of Ukraine, the administration toughened those restrictions.

So here we are.

The weak response in 2014 emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine again, as was obvious at the time, and weak leadership since then has left the West unable to deploy its most potent nonviolent weapon against the dictatorship again. Will we learn the lesson this time? I doubt it.

David Mastio is a columnist for USA TODAY. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidMastio

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Biden's sanctions won't stop Putin. Global response should include oil