Tramel's ScissorTales: A 2022 College Football Playoff of only Big Ten & SEC possible
Thirteen teams remain alive, by definition, for the College Football Playoff. That definition is Power Five Conference teams with fewer than two losses, or a potential Southeastern Conference champion with two losses but some stout victories.
But 13 teams is not a good way to think of it.
A better way to think of it is categories.
For example, both Clemson and North Carolina are still on the list, but each is 8-1, the best either could finish is 12-1, and since they would meet in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, they both can’t finish 12-1. So, a 12-1 ACC champion is one of the candidates.
Same with the Pac-12, where one-loss teams Oregon, UCLA and Southern Cal remain in the chase. But only one can finish with a record as good as 12-1. So a 12-1 Pac-12 champ is one of the candidates.
Texas Christian, at 9-0, likely must win out, since it has neither a marquee victory over a fellow contender or a brand name. The committee admits to embracing the former, and the evidence is clear that it also acts upon the latter. The 2014 Horned Frogs know that well.
But then you get to the Southeastern Conference and the Big Ten, and no such limitations exist.
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The Big Ten has both Michigan and Ohio State at 9-0. Neither seems likely to lose until their Nov. 26 showdown in Columbus. Michigan hosts Nebraska and Illinois. Ohio State hosts Indiana and plays at Maryland.
The SEC has 9-0 Georgia, which seems likely to make the playoff as long as it makes the SEC title game, even if that endeavor ends in defeat. A 12-1 Georgia would have wins over Oregon and Tennessee, with a loss to Alabama or Louisiana State.
The SEC also seems likely to have an 11-1 Tennessee, with wins over Alabama and LSU. The Volunteers will be sitting out the SEC title game unless Georgia loses at both Mississippi State and Kentucky.
And the SEC could have an 11-2 LSU, should the Tigers win out, including the SEC Championship Game. An 11-2 LSU with an SEC trophy and victories over Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss likely would be included in the four-team playoff.
See the difference? Both Michigan and Ohio State could make the playoff. Both Georgia and Tennessee could make the playoff. If LSU beats Georgia in the SEC title game, it’s not a stretch that LSU, Georgia and Tennessee could make the playoff.
I’m not even counting Ole Miss, which could substitute for LSU if the Rebels upset Alabama on Saturday and LSU is upset by Arkansas or Texas A&M. If that happens, a 12-1 Mississippi fills in for an 11-2 LSU and continue the discussion.
So we’re at eight contenders for the four playoff spots.
Three SEC teams. Two Big Ten teams. TCU. A 12-1 ACC champion, if it happens. A 12-1 Pac-12 champion, if such a creature exists.
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TCU, Clemson, North Carolina, Oregon, UCLA and USC have small margins for error. No losing.
No such margin exists for Ohio State, Michigan and Georgia. The former two can be on the final ballot merely by being 11-1. Georgia could be there by checking in at 12-1.
And every time Clemson/North Carolina, or TCU, or Oregon/USC/UCLA removes itself from the race, the odds increase that the four-team playoff will be a private party between the two most powerful leagues. The Big Ten and the SEC.
Let’s get to my weekly rankings, and remember, I rank teams based not on what I think they will do, but what they have done. Who did you play, where did you play and how did you do?
This week, I went 13 deep. Sorry North Carolina, you didn’t make the cut.
1. Georgia 9-0: Unbeaten, with two wins over top-10 teams (Oregon and Tennessee) is hard to beat.
2. Tennessee 8-1: Once-beaten, with two wins over top-10 teams (Alabama and LSU) is hard to beat.
3. Texas Christian 9-0: My suggestion for the Horned Frogs? Don’t lose. A 12-1, Big 12 champion almost surely would lose out to 11-1 Tennessee (understandable) and might lose out to an 11-1 Michigan or Ohio State (not understandable).
4. Ohio State 9-0: Why the Buckeyes over the Wolverines? Their conference schedules so far have been quite similar. But Ohio State at least had a non-conference victory over Notre Dame.
5. Michigan 9-0: The non-conference schedule of Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut could come back to bite Michigan.
6. Louisiana State 7-2: Wow. What a resume’ for the Tigers. They’ve beaten Alabama and Ole Miss. They beat Mississippi State. LSU’s loss to Tennessee is no deal-crusher, but the Tigers will rue losing to Florida State in New Orleans to open the season.
7. Oregon 8-1: Will the Ducks be forgiven for losing 49-3 to Georgia in Atlanta? They hope they get to make that case.
8. UCLA 8-1: The win over Utah is keeping the Bruins in the hunt.
9. Alabama 7-2: Turns out, two months later, Bama’s best win remains that walkoff win at Texas.
10. Utah 7-2: Why the Utes over USC? The Trojans are the only Pac-12 heavyweight without a victory over a fellow Pac-12 heavyweight. Oregon beat UCLA. UCLA beat Utah. Utah beat USC.
11. Clemson 8-1: The committee won’t like the way Clemson lost at Notre Dame – down 28-0 in the fourth quarter, before losing 35-14.
12. Ole Miss 8-1: The Rebels have done a nice job advancing, but Mississippi’s best win is Kentucky.
13. Southern Cal 8-1: USC’s best wins are against Oregon State and Washington State. Not terrible. But the Trojans finish with UCLA and Notre Dame.
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Cunningham outduels Giddey
Cade Cunningham and Josh Giddey have much in common. Both are tall point guards – Cunningham 6-foot-6, Giddey 6-8 – and Oklahoma favorites and players taken early in the 2021 NBA Draft.
Cunningham was an OSU sensation in 2020-21, his lone Cowboy year. Giddey is in his second Thunder season. Cunningham was the overall No. 1 pick in 2021; Giddey was taken sixth.
Both had excellent rookie seasons. Cunningham finished third in Rookie of the Year voting; Giddey likely would have finished fourth had he not missed 21 games due to injury.
But their similarities have diverged early in this 2022-23 season. Cunningham’s game has risen, Giddey’s has slipped.
Both were apparent in the Pistons’ 112-103 victory over the Thunder on Monday night in Detroit.
Cunningham had 21 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists. He led a comeback from a 15-point halftime deficit.
What changed for Detroit?
“Our defense,” Cunningham said. “We locked in defensively. We didn’t even think about offense anymore, we just wanted to take pride in guarding the ball and locking up on that end and it translated over to our offense. We got easy looks and the basketball gods rewarded.”
Meanwhile, Giddey had his worst game of a challenging season. Giddey had nine points on 4-of-12 shooting, with six rebounds, two assists and three turnovers. Mark Daigneault did not use Giddey in the closing lineup as the Thunder tried to mount a comeback. Giddey sat most of the fourth quarter.
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Giddey missed three games with a sprained ankle. In the four games since he returned, Giddey has averaged 11.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.3 turnovers and 27.0 minutes per game, with 38.5% shooting. In the season’s first three games, Giddey averaged 14.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.0 turnovers and 29.4 minutes per game, with 45.2% shooting.
Those latter numbers are much more akin to Giddey’s rookie year: 12.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 3.2 turnovers and 31.5 minutes per game, with 41.9% shooting.
The season is young. So is Giddey; he’s 29 days past his 20th birthday. Blending with Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a work in progress and will take time.
The Thunder is hoping that Giddey makes the kind of leap Cunningham seems to be making.
Cunningham as a rookie: 17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 3.7 turnovers and 32.6 minutes per game, with 41.6% shooting.
Cunningham as a Piston sophomore: 21.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 3.4 turnovers and 34.2 minutes per game, with 43.2% shooting.
And Cunningham on Monday night shined in the second half, with a team-high 17 points.
“I just got to stay aggressive,” Cunningham said. “I had a lot in the first half that I felt like were really good looks, looks that I know I can make. They rimmed out for me, but I was never discouraged about it. I wanted to stay aggressive and continue to drive defense to see what they gave me.
“The third quarter we started on defense, and it allowed me to get some easy looks to get a rhythm going and just kept going from there.”
Cunningham looked good. Looked like a future star. Looked like the kind of player that the Thunder hopes Giddey one day will be.
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Bedlam rivals lag in Big 12 efficiency ratings
How kooky has this college football season become in the state of Oklahoma?
Here’s a quiz. Using my Big 12 efficiency ratings, which unit among the Bedlams’ rivals is the best?
OU offense, OSU offense, OSU defense or OU defense?
Would you believe the Cowboy defense ranks the highest? Isn’t that something?
OSU’s defense ranks seventh in the Big 12. The OU offense and defense each rank eighth. The OSU offense is ninth.
We are accustomed to OU’s offense being an automatic No. 1. OSU’s offense was slated for No. 2 year after year, but that has trended down in recent seasons. OSU’s defense has been quite solid the last few years and was historically great last season. OU’s defense has been mediocre, at best, for years.
Now they’ve all cratered, but OSU’s defense has held up the best.
It makes no sense. It seems like OU’s offense should rank higher, but the Sooners have been just solid, not spectacular, with quarterback Dillon Gabriel and downright putrid without him.
And OU gets little slack for the almost seven quarters it played without Gabriel. Most Big 12 teams have played a game or more without their starting QB.
Remember, I figure efficiency by giving a full point for a touchdown, a half point for a field goal, then dividing by possessions. I do the same for defense, using opposing offenses’ numbers.
Here are the numbers this week:
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Big 12 offensive efficiency ratings
1. TCU .453: Not an historically prolific offense, but the Big 12's best in a good year for offense.
2. Texas .443: Really good Longhorn offense, but you keep thinking it should be better.
3. Baylor .441: No one seems to think of Baylor's offense being in the same class with TCU and Texas, but that's exactly where the Bears belong.
4. Kansas .423: Tremendous offensive accomplishment. Lose a breakout star like Jalon Daniels, yet continue to play big-time offense with backup Jason Bean.
5. Kansas State .406: Doesn't seem to matter whether it's Adrian Martinez or Will Howard quarterbacking, the Wildcats are good offensively.
6. Texas Tech .393: In the second quarter against TCU, the Red Raiders switched from quarterback Behren Morton to Week 1 starter Tyler Shough. Didn't really help. No word on this week.
7. West Virginia .357: With the Big 12's worst defense, the Mountaineers need a lot better offense than this.
8. Oklahoma .329: OU's offensive efficiency is .418 with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, which is good, but also would be just fifth-best in the conference. Of course, most of the teams ahead of the Sooners have lost their quarterback, too, some for much longer than Gabriel's absence.
9. Oklahoma State .303: Uh, this number is dropping fast and needs to be reversed.
10. Iowa State .250: This number holds rather steady. The Cyclones have the league's worst offense.
More:Tramel's ScissorTales: Guess who could make the Big 12 title game? Believe it or not, OSU
Big 12 defensive efficiency ratings
1. Iowa State .278: The Cyclone defense never let up, even during an 0-5 Big 12 start. Impressive.
2. Kansas State .296: Yes. The team that gave up 38 offensive points to TCU and 34 to both OU and Texas, is the No. 2 defense in the Big 12. Welcome to this conference.
3. Texas .304: Surprised that the Longhorns are the No. 3 defense in the Big 12? Here's the explanation. Texas has yet to play the other three best offenses in the league (TCU, Baylor, KU).
4. TCU .329: The Horned Frogs have yet to play Texas or Baylor, so this number isn't settled. On the other hand, TCU also has yet to play Iowa State.
5. Texas Tech .336: Getting better. That's a positive sign for the Red Raiders.
6. Baylor .362: This is how good programs prosper. Baylor had a great defense last year, with a so-so offense. The defense has taken a step back this season, but here comes a better Baylor offense.
7. Oklahoma State. 375: Sort of the Baylor opposite. The Cowboys obviously were headed for a defensive falloff -maybe not this much of a falloff - and needed the offense to pick up the slack. Hasn't happened.
8. Kansas .437: KU already has played the Big 12's four worst offenses. So this number could rise.
9. Oklahoma .448: OU's defense is worse than Kansas'. Do we really need to say much more?
10. West Virginia .555: How did this happen? How did WVU get so bad on defense? The Mountaineers' defensive efficiency the first three seasons with Neal Brown as head coach: .390, .225, .335. Now it's historically ineffective.
More:Who will start at QB for Oklahoma State football? Mike Gundy isn't ready to say just yet.
Projected Big 12 football scores
These numbers allow us to project a score for each matchup every week, using the efficiency numbers for a team and its opponent, factoring in average number of possessions and possessions faced each week.
This week, I'm going to use these numbers for my weekly predictions and see how I do.
Oklahoma at West Virginia: Sooners 36-33. It's usually high-scoring when OU goes to Morgantown. No reason that would change now.
Iowa State at Oklahoma State: Cyclones 26-23. Wouldn't surprise if indeed this score is close, though it would if Spencer Sanders plays quarterback for OSU.
TCU at Texas: Longhorns 33-31. Sounds like a mighty fine game in Austin.
Kansas State at Baylor: Wildcats 30-29. Should go down to the wire in Waco.
Kansas at Texas Tech: Red Raiders 33-30. KU is no pushover anymore.
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The List: College basketball upsets
TCU was ranked 14th in the college basketball preseason. Monday night, less than 10 minutes into the season, the Horned Frogs trailed Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 20 points. TCU eventually rallied and survived UAPB 73-72, but other power conference teams weren’t so fortunate.
OU was among the victims. With almost every team in America tipping off the season, here were the seven biggest upsets involving big guy/little guy matchups:
1. Sam Houston State 52, OU 51: The Bearkats were picked eighth in the Western Athletic Conference preseason poll.
2. Stetson 83, Florida State 74: The Hatters were picked eighth in the Atlantic Sun preseason poll.
3. Florida Gulf Coast 74, Southern Cal 61: Ten years ago, USC hired away FGC coach Andy Enfield after a run to the Sweet 16. The Eagles, picked sixth in the Atlantic Sun, got their revenge Monday night.
4. Cal-Davis 75, California 65: The Aggies were picked sixth in the Big West.
5. Wagner 76, Temple 73: The Seahawks of Staten Island were picked fourth in the Northeast Conference.
6. Quinnipiac 67, Rhode Island 62: The Bobcats were picked fourth in the Metro Atlantic. Rhode Island of the Atlantic-10 is in its first year under Archie Miller, fired as coach at Indiana in March 2021.
7. North Carolina-Asheville 98, Central Florida 95: The Bulldogs were picked third in the Big South but beat the Knights, who leave the American Conference for the Big 12 after this season.
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Mailbag: OU defensive line
Frustration is starting to mount over the Sooners’ 5-4 record.
Brett: “Brent Venerables said he did not know why Baylor was more physical than OU in the trenches. He is either lying or stupid. OU is playing small players as down linemen against a run heavy team with a veteran O-line. For instance, R. Mason Thomas is a 220-pound freshman playing in the four-man front.”
Tramel: You know, I can’t argue. Thomas is listed at 222 pounds. Ethan Downs is 260. Jonah Laulu is 265. Reggie Grimes is 270. Marcus Stripling is 245.
The Sooners have some larger linemen. Jeffery Johnson is 305. So is Isaiah Coe. Josh Ellison, who seldom plays, is 300. Jalen Redmond is 292. Jordan Kelley is 288.
But the old speed D remnants from Alex Grinch remain. Against some teams, that’s fine. Against some teams, including Baylor, that’s trouble.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: College Football Playoff could be just SEC, Big Ten teams in 2022
