Tramel's ScissorTales: Big 12 football parity shows in title-game participants
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The Big 12 Championship Game matchup is clear. Texas Christian will play either Kansas State or Texas in Arlington.
If K-State beats Kansas on Saturday, the Wildcats reach the title game. If K-State loses, Texas can reach the championship game with a Friday victory over Baylor.
Either way, the Big 12 has entered a new stretch of parity.
TCU and either K-State or Texas would be the fifth and sixth schools to make the last three Big 12 title games. OU played Iowa State in 2020, and Oklahoma State played Baylor in 2021.
In Big 12 Championship Game history, never has six programs been represented over a three-year stretch. And that includes the teams that would have made the title game from 2011-16, when the game was dormant.
“There’s a lot of parity,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said. “And we’ve talked about this. The portal and NIL (name, image and likeness) has thrown everybody in a bag and you can shake it up.”
We’ve seen such parity in major conferences, but rarely.
Six Southeastern Conference schools have qualified for its title game over a three-year stretch three times: Auburn-Florida, Louisiana State-Tennessee and Arkansas-Georgia from 2000-02; Auburn-Tennessee, LSU-Georgia and Arkansas-Florida from 2004-06; and Alabama-Florida, Auburn-South Carolina and LSU-Georgia from 2009-11.
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The Pac-12 from 2014-16 had Oregon-Arizona, Stanford-Southern Cal and Washington-Colorado.
It wasn’t that long ago that the Big 12 was the furthest thing from parity. OU won six straight conference championships, 2015-20. But Baylor won a year ago, and now TCU, K-State or Texas will wear the crown.
That’s not historic parity, but it’s a start.
Four Pac-12 schools won the conference from 2014-17 — Oregon 2014, Stanford 2015, Washington 2016 and USC 2017.
That harkens back to the Pac-12 of the 1990s, before Pete Carroll restored USC to national powerhouse status.
From 1992 through 2000, nine seasons, nine of the Pac’s 10 members won or shared a piece of the league championship.
Washington and Stanford shared the title in 1992; UCLA, Arizona and USC tied in 1993; Oregon won in 1994; Washington and USC tied in 1995; Arizona State won in 1996; Washington State and UCLA shared the crown in 1997; UCLA won in 1998; Stanford won in 1999; and Washington, Oregon State and Oregon tied in 2000.
Seven Pac schools made the Rose Bowl at least once from 1992-99.
That kind of parity doesn’t always do a lot for playoff status, but it does wonders for conference morale and makes for great football.
This year, of course, the Big 12 could have both. TCU remains a primary contender for the four-team College Football Playoff, while also being a major example of parity.
Let’s get to the Big 12 rankings:
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Berry Tramel's Big 12 football power rankings
1. Texas Christian (11-0, 8-0): The Horned Frogs are the first team since 1975 to win seven straight games by 10 points or less.
2. Kansas State (8-3, 6-2): The Wildcats historically are Big 12 Championship Game staples. They made the title game in 1998, 2000 and 2003. They would have made it in 2011 and 2012, had the conference staged such a championship.
3. Texas (7-4, 5-3): The Longhorns could be setting up themselves for a good bowl berth. Beat Baylor, and UT could be looking at an Alamo Bowl berth against UCLA or Utah.
4. Oklahoma State (7-4, 4-4): Why the Cowboys ahead of the other 4-4 teams in the conference? Because OSU has played the toughest league schedule among the trio. The Cowboys still get ninth-place West Virginia in Stillwater on Saturday.
5. Baylor (6-5, 4-4): The Bears, the preseason Big 12 title pick, have yet to secure a winning season.
6. Texas Tech (6-5, 4-4): The Red Raiders host OU on Saturday. A winning conference record would be Tech’s first since 2008.
7. Oklahoma (6-5, 3-5): Winning Bedlam gave the Sooners their best win of the year.
8. Kansas (6-5, 3-5): Even a season-finale loss to K-State wouldn’t wipe out the Jayhawks’ ascension in 2022.
9. West Virginia (4-7, 2-6): The Mountaineers come to Stillwater needing a win to avoid matching their worst record since 2013.
10. Iowa State (4-7, 1-7): The Cyclones’ seven conference losses are by 31-24, 14-11, 10-9, 24-21, 27-13, 20-14 and 14-10. And that 27-13 loss was to OU, which scored the game-sealing touchdown with 4½ minutes left in the game, after an interception.
More:Oklahoma State football vs. West Virginia: Broadcast info, betting lines, matchup breakdown
Big 12 efficiency: Bedlam defenses rise
OU's 28-13 victory over OSU on Saturday night delivered the lowest scoring Bedlam football game in 13 years. Back in 2009, the Sooners blanked the Cowboys 27-0, when injured OSU quarterback Zac Robinson had no business playing but did anyway.
Since then, of course, Dana Holgorsen brought the modern Air Raid to Stillwater, Lincoln Riley eventually did the same to Norman, and Bedlam became known for high scores, high stakes and high drama.
But Holgorsen is long gone, and so are the remnants of his success. Riley is short gone, and his offense is nowhere to be found.
Exasperation over the OU defense has been a decade-long enterprise. Exasperation over the OSU defense has returned this season, after Jim Knowles brought big-time defense to Stillwater but fled for Ohio State last January.
That exasperation is misplaced as we hit late November. The defenses at both Bedlam rivals trump the offenses.
In my Big 12 efficiency ratings, OU ranks eighth and OSU ranks ninth. Those are not fluke slots. The Sooners are far ahead of OSU but also are far behind No. 7 West Virginia.
OU's offense was spectacular for a quarter against OSU. The Sooners scored four touchdowns on six first-quarter possessions in taking a 28-0 lead.
In the final three quarters, OU was shut out despite getting 12 possessions and OSU scored 13 points — one touchdown, two field goals — in 13 possessions.
Bedlam became Iowa State-Iowa. Twenty-five offensive possessions, 13 points. Where have you gone, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph?
Meanwhile, the Sooners' and Cowboys' defenses are getting better.
OSU is up to fifth in Big 12 defensive efficiency. Opposing offenses operate at a .330 efficiency against the Cowboys. That's the equivalent of a touchdown every three series, and while that's not championship football, it basically is winning football.
I know, it doesn't seem like the Cowboys are playing decent defense. But the numbers tell a different story. OSU's offense is playing at an incredible pace. The Cowboys have defended an average of 14.75 possessions per game in the Big 12. OU is second at 13.37 possessions defended per game.
The Sooners' defensive efficiency rating is rising. OU is at seventh in the conference, at .369, and while that's not particularly good, it's not awful. It's about where the Sooner defense has been in its non-awful years (like 2018). Has to get better — and should, under Brent Venables — but not the punching bag for this disappointing OU defense.
But these offenses? OU at .300, OSU at .255. Not championship level. Not even upper-division level. The Cowboys and Sooners are mediocre offensively.
That has to change.
Here are the efficiency ratings:
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Offense
1. Kansas State .438: Good offense. Not necessarily a great offense. In the last 10 years, the lowest Big 12-leading offense had an efficiency rating of .439 (Baylor in 2013).
2. Texas .425: Not likely to catch K-State, since the Wildcats go against the Kansas defense this week.
3. TCU .418: The Horned Frogs will be hard-pressed to maintain this number, since they go against Iowa State's league-leading defense this week.
4. Baylor .392: Good offense. If this offense had been paired with the 2021 Baylor defense, the Bears would have been in the College Football Playoff.
5. Kansas .381: KU was slowed by Texas. Wonder if K-State will do the same?
6. Texas Tech .361: Middle-of-the-road offense, which is what the Red Raiders have become in recent years.
7. West Virginia .343: The Mountaineers needed this offense to be much better. Instead, quarterback J.T. Daniels has been benched.
8. Oklahoma .300: I'm amazed by this low number. Late in the season, the OU offense has become as much of a concern as the OU defense.
9. Oklahoma State .255: Alarming. That's the only way I can describe OSU's offensive fall. Alarming.
10. Iowa State .212: Two years ago, the Cyclones' offensive efficiency was .470.
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Defense
1. Iowa State .253: The Cyclones' defense still hasn't wilted, but it hasn't resulted in many victories.
2. Texas .277: Iowa State is playing TCU. If the Longhorns can deliver a semi-shutdown of Baylor this week, UT could end up with the Big 12's best defense.
3. Kansas State .280: The Wildcats have a chance to have their best defense in the last 10 years (.277 in 2014).
4. TCU .298: This number is about to go down, with Iowa State's offense coming to Fort Worth.
5. Oklahoma State .313: This is not bad defense. Pay no attention to the yardage rankings. They mean nothing. The Cowboys have defended 115 possessions in Big 12 play. Only OU (107) also is over 100, in conference play.
6. Texas Tech .344: A defensive culture could be taking hold in Lubbock. That wouldn't be a bad thing.
7. Oklahoma .369: Getting better. That's a very good sign for Brent Venables.
8. Baylor .387: Wow. Quite a fall from 2021, when the Bears had that terrific defense.
9. Kansas .494: The Jayhawks haven't stopped much of anyone this season except Iowa State.
10. West Virginia .512: The Mountaineers probably will have a new defensive staff next season.
Projected scores
These numbers allow us to project a score for each matchup every week, using the efficiency numbers for a team and its opponent, factoring in average number of possessions and possessions faced each week.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech: Red Raiders 32-28. Will the Sooner defense need to win this one, too?
West Virginia at Oklahoma State: Cowboys 33-29. The struggling OSU offense could stand a Saturday against a defense like the Montaineers'.
Baylor at Texas: Longhorns 31-26. Can the Bears keep it this close in Austin?
Should be a really close game in Waco.
Iowa State at TCU: Horned Frogs 27-21. Can the Cyclone defense make TCU sweat?
Kansas at Kansas State: Wildcats 35-26. The Sunflower Series could use a competitive game.
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Why Baylor didn’t slow-play TCU’s final kick
TCU tailback Emari Demercado plunged into the Baylor defense for a two-yard gain, and the fire drill began. About 16 seconds remained on the game clock, the Horned Frogs trailed by two points and TCU’s unbeaten season was on the line.
So the Frog offense sprinted off the field, the Frog field-goal unit sprinted on and TCU’s precision, along with Griffin Kell’s leg, would settle a fabulous game Saturday down in Waco.
You know what happened. The Frogs displayed uncommon poise, Kell nailed the 40-yard field goal and TCU pulled out a 29-28 thriller.
But someone asked me a great question. In this age of hurryup offenses, when teams try to snap the ball quickly after substituting, officials stand over the ball and give defenses ample opportunity to substitutue, why didn’t that happen in Waco?
You’ve seen it. Offenses sub, then defenses respond by subbing and don’t have to sprint. They jog on, the umpire stands over the ball and waits for the defense to get set. Often, the offense must call timeout to avoid a delay of game penalty.
But that ploy was not available to Baylor on the last-play situation.
I talked to two Big 12 officiating experts Monday, and both said the crew is instructed to ignore the mechanics of giving defenses time to respond to obvious-kick situations in the final minute.
“All the coaches have been informed of this,” said one of the experts. “If there is an end-of-half scenario where the field goal is obvious, the substitution mechanics go away.”
Page 157 of the Collegiate Commissioners Association’s officiating manual details the exception.
“These procedures, which are intended to prevent the defense from being unable to match up during normal scrimmage situations, should not be used in the case of substitution for a last-second field goal,” the manual says. “In that situation, the offense is making a normal and not unexpected personnel change. The defense should be prepared to respond appropriately. In no case should the umpire be standing over the ball to prevent the snap as the clock runs out.”
Big 12 officials — like every other conference’s officials — draw constant criticism. I can’t vouch for any other league, but Big 12 officiating is mostly excellent, and the preparation and communication from the conference office is outstanding.
One of the officiating sources told me that Greg Burks, the Big 12’s director of officiating, goes over the last-play field-goal situation every year when he talks with coaching staffs during campus visits before the season.
Another source told me that this very scenario was addressed in a recent bulletin from Burks.
“The reasoning is, it was crystal clear to everybody what is about to happen,” the source said. “And the justification is, the defense should certainly be ready for and anticipate exactly what is going to happen, and in this case, what did happen.”
The exact TCU-Baylor scenario also played out at the end of the second quarter in the Kansas State-West Virginia game Saturday, when the Wildcats hurried their field-goal unit onto the field and Ty Zentler kicked a 53-yard field goal with one second left in the first half.
Mike Gundy said coaches have known about the policy for “several years. In a hurry-up field-goal situation, you better run on with them. They’re not going to let a team lose a game because you're slow coming on the field.”
But Gundy offered an alternative for the next team in Baylor’s situation.
“What if you lay on him for five, six seconds,” Gundy said of TCU’s Demercado 5-6 seconds. “Because … there is not a rule that says when you have to give up. What if he runs 10 more yards, then they lay on him and he tries to get up.”
Horned Frog coach Sonny Dykes said after the game that he ran the ball to the middle of the field to set up Kell’s kick, so maybe a 10-yard run was off the table.
But laying on a ballcarrier? Maybe there’s an officiating ruling soon coming to the Big 12.
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Mailbag: Transfer portal protocols
The NCAA transfer portal fascinates fans.
Perry: “Do you have or The Oklahoman have access to the transfer portal? How come the public can't see who's in the portal, or at least I haven't been able to find it.”
Tramel: No. We do not have access. The portal list is supposed to be off limits to anyone except designated university employees. Of course, that’s a very difficult policy to enforce. People talk. Computers get hacked. Things get out.
And it’s a silly policy. Players themselves tend to announce their decision to enter the portal.
Is this some kind of policy to protect coaches? Probably.
More:OU football report card: Lots to like from Sooners in Bedlam, even if it was far from perfect
The List: Heisman Trophy odds
The Heisman Trophy winner will be announced in less than three weeks. According to vegasinsider.com, here are the betting favorites to win the award:
1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State quarterback, 4:5
2. Caleb Williams, Southern Cal quarterback, 1:1
3. Blake Corum, Michigan tailback, 14:1
4. Max Duggan, TCU quarterback, 45:1
5. Jayden Daniels, LSU quarterback, 53:1
6. Bo Nix, Oregon quarterback, 55:1
7. Drake Maye, North Carolina quarterback, 73:1
8. Stetson Bennett, Georgia quarterback, 83:1
9. Bryce Young, Alabama quarterback, 137:1
10. Chase Brown, Illinois tailback, 200:1
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Big 12 football power rankings: TCU, Kansas State lead after Week 12
